The Solution

[Turkeyman]

LOL there you go. The alternative is to give the coordinates of where you find birds...public or private...on YouTube or such. It'll give you great satisfaction calling a bird to gun that five other guys are simultaneously calling LOL.

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[bwhana]

Lots of personal opinions and thoughts on this thread so far with some good science mixed in along the way.  Grant just released a great video addressing this topic with a biological view.  https://youtu.be/RzIn0dSgeiU

[GobbleNut]

Lots of personal opinions and thoughts on this thread so far with some good science mixed in along the way.  Grant just released a great video addressing this topic with a biological view.  https://youtu.be/RzIn0dSgeiU

Great video,...Thanks for posting.  Unfortunately, the video brings up a couple of very juxtaposed issues.  The first is the very real need for predator control.  The second is the reality that overall societal views on things like predator control and trapping are changing such that the general human population in this country is less accepting of it.  Finding an acceptable balance between those two issues is a major challenge we face. 

The fact is that hunters (and wildlife managers) just declaring that we are going to kill predators solely with the purpose of providing more game species for us human hunters to kill is a really big PR problem for all of us.  Any solution we seek to dwindling game numbers, whether it be turkeys or otherwise, has to include the recognition that increasing numbers of our fellow citizens do not accept that first statement in this paragraph. 

And here's a News Flash for those out there that just declare that "By God, I am going to do what I want on my own land!".  ...Guess what?  If that 97% of the general public gets to the mindset that "NO YOU AREN'T!", I guarantee you will not be "doing what I want" on your own land when it comes to the wildlife there. 

Second News Flash:  YOU do not own the wildlife that lives on your property!  The citizens of your state own it!  If those citizens decide that it is more important for that wildlife to live than it is for you to kill it, THAT is what is going to happen! 

The bottom line is that wildlife managers HAVE to deal with that other 97% of our citizenry in making wildlife management decisions.  Those decisions are increasingly having to be made based on factors that are more complex than "if we want more game animals, let's just kill off the predators that compete with us". 

Sorry, fellers, but that is the unfortunate reality of where we are....

[eggshell]

 

Both the video and Gobblenut's post are very good.

I danced the dance for 30 years and I can assure you that sportsmen don't want to stir the pot too vigorously, we will lose if we pick a fight with John Q Public. This is the balancing act that wildlife agencies do everyday. How do we draw attention and thus funding support to our cause, when a large majority could care less.

I once saw a story about a homeless guywho had built a shanty on a property and squatted for many years. Someone thought it would be great to fix up his shack and clear the brush and put it on the news. The landowner then had him removed and tore down his shack. when he was in-obscure and deemed harmless he could live in peace, but after the attention the landowner feared legal ramifications and his property becoming a homeless community. His neighbors also complained. So think hard before you cry wolf.

Our agencies could always improve, but they aren't doing as poorly as many think.

[PNWturkey]

Lots of personal opinions and thoughts on this thread so far with some good science mixed in along the way.  Grant just released a great video addressing this topic with a biological view.  https://youtu.be/RzIn0dSgeiU

Thanks for sharing!  He definitely has a strong opinion on nest predators.

I made a graph of spring turkey harvest in Iowa (a state I used to live and turkey hunt in), from 2007-2021 (mandatory reporting started in 2007).  Am I to assume that nest predators have not increased in Iowa compared to Missouri?  Why is Iowa's turkey harvest relatively stable while other states seem to be struggling?

It seems that if predators were truly the main issue due to lack of trapping/low fur prices, that Iowa would be suffering along with other states...

[owlhoot]

Lots of personal opinions and thoughts on this thread so far with some good science mixed in along the way.  Grant just released a great video addressing this topic with a biological view.  https://youtu.be/RzIn0dSgeiU

Thanks for sharing!  He definitely has a strong opinion on nest predators.

I made a graph of spring turkey harvest in Iowa (a state I used to live and turkey hunt in), from 2007-2021 (mandatory reporting started in 2007).  Am I to assume that nest predators have not increased in Iowa compared to Missouri?  Why is Iowa's turkey harvest relatively stable while other states seem to be struggling?

It seems that if predators were truly the main issue due to lack of trapping/low fur prices, that Iowa would be suffering along with other states...

Restoration efforts ended in 2001. Harvest went almost half in 2007. Since then harvest is at levels of about 1992. In that year 1992 there were a bit over 30k licenses, from 2007 -2019 there were 45-55k licenses. Success rates dropped from near 50% in the early 2000s to 20% in 2007 to present. Fall harvest has dropped to 7% success and looks like under 1000 birds taken.  Since 2007 to 2019 licensed fall turkey hunters fell from 11,024 to 6,296. Question is why?
Iowa coon hunters still take a lot of raccoons. In 2011-2014  Around 300k, fell after until 2019 or so to around 100k. Last Missouri report I think said 22k killed?

[PNWturkey]

Lots of personal opinions and thoughts on this thread so far with some good science mixed in along the way.  Grant just released a great video addressing this topic with a biological view.  https://youtu.be/RzIn0dSgeiU

Thanks for sharing!  He definitely has a strong opinion on nest predators.

I made a graph of spring turkey harvest in Iowa (a state I used to live and turkey hunt in), from 2007-2021 (mandatory reporting started in 2007).  Am I to assume that nest predators have not increased in Iowa compared to Missouri?  Why is Iowa's turkey harvest relatively stable while other states seem to be struggling?

It seems that if predators were truly the main issue due to lack of trapping/low fur prices, that Iowa would be suffering along with other states...

Restoration efforts ended in 2001. Harvest went almost half in 2007. Since then harvest is at levels of about 1992. In that year 1992 there were a bit over 30k licenses, from 2007 -2019 there were 45-55k licenses. Success rates dropped from near 50% in the early 2000s to 20% in 2007 to present. Fall harvest has dropped to 7% success and looks like under 1000 birds taken.  Since 2007 to 2019 licensed fall turkey hunters fell from 11,024 to 6,296. Question is why?

If you're referring to Iowa, in 2007 mandatory reporting started, so comparing 2007+ to prior to 2007 is problematic because no one knows for sure what the % reported harvest is (i.e. not all birds shot are reported).  That's likely why it looks like harvest "dropped" in 2007, because the metric to determine harvest is different than pre-2007.  I was living in Iowa in 2007 and nothing was noticeably different about that year compared to previous years.

However, we can more reliably compare Iowa data that is all 2007+ (assuming reporting rate is somewhat the same year-over-year).

No trends pop out to me in that Iowa dataset from 2007-2021, certainly not any declining harvest.  So, why do other states show declining harvest, while Iowa is stable for the last 15 years of harvest data?

[owlhoot]

Lots of personal opinions and thoughts on this thread so far with some good science mixed in along the way.  Grant just released a great video addressing this topic with a biological view.  https://youtu.be/RzIn0dSgeiU

Thanks for sharing!  He definitely has a strong opinion on nest predators.

I made a graph of spring turkey harvest in Iowa (a state I used to live and turkey hunt in), from 2007-2021 (mandatory reporting started in 2007).  Am I to assume that nest predators have not increased in Iowa compared to Missouri?  Why is Iowa's turkey harvest relatively stable while other states seem to be struggling?

It seems that if predators were truly the main issue due to lack of trapping/low fur prices, that Iowa would be suffering along with other states...

Restoration efforts ended in 2001. Harvest went almost half in 2007. Since then harvest is at levels of about 1992. In that year 1992 there were a bit over 30k licenses, from 2007 -2019 there were 45-55k licenses. Success rates dropped from near 50% in the early 2000s to 20% in 2007 to present. Fall harvest has dropped to 7% success and looks like under 1000 birds taken.  Since 2007 to 2019 licensed fall turkey hunters fell from 11,024 to 6,296. Question is why?

If you're referring to Iowa, in 2007 mandatory reporting started, so comparing 2007+ to prior to 2007 is problematic because no one knows for sure what the % reported harvest is (i.e. not all birds shot are reported).  That's likely why it looks like harvest "dropped" in 2007, because the metric to determine harvest is different than pre-2007.  I was living in Iowa in 2007 and nothing was noticeably different about that year compared to previous years.

However, we can more reliably compare Iowa data that is all 2007+ (assuming reporting rate is somewhat the same year-over-year).

No trends pop out to me in that Iowa dataset from 2007-2021, certainly not any declining harvest.  So, why do other states show declining harvest, while Iowa is stable for the last 15 years of harvest data?

yes Iowa , all kinds of information on there sight. The data says that 2007 shift. Are you saying that mail in surveys are or where more dependable than mandatory? That they took the time to mail in the kill and now half don't? Maybe I am missing something.
Yes it looks like the harvest has been stable . I just pointed out that what was puzzling is that the huge increase of hunters and still the same amount killed.
Just having a discussion. Looking at the charts , most of my posts are as much of what do guys think rather than I know . I'm just reading and looking at the charts. Since 2007 to 2019 licensed fall turkey hunters fell from 11,024 to 6,296. Question is why?
Iowa coon hunters still take a lot of raccoons. In 2011-2014  Around 300k, fell after until 2019 or so to around 100k. Last Missouri report I think said 22k killed?

[PNWturkey]

yes Iowa , all kinds of information on there sight. The data says that 2007 shift. Are you saying that mail in surveys are or where more dependable than mandatory? That they took the time to mail in the kill and now half don't? Maybe I am missing something.
Yes it looks like the harvest has been stable . I just pointed out that what was puzzling is that the huge increase of hunters and still the same amount killed.
Just having a discussion. Looking at the charts , most of my posts are as much of what do guys think rather than I know . I'm just reading and looking at the charts. Since 2007 to 2019 licensed fall turkey hunters fell from 11,024 to 6,296. Question is why?
Iowa coon hunters still take a lot of raccoons. In 2011-2014  Around 300k, fell after until 2019 or so to around 100k. Last Missouri report I think said 22k killed?

Those are good observations and questions.  I don't have all the answers either, just trying to look at what data is available to help guide the discussion (knowing that data is never perfect either).

Regarding 2007 vs. previous, I'm not sure if more people mailed in vs. online, I just remember there was quite a bit of pushback from hunters about the mandatory reporting and the thought is that not all hunters accurately report online.  Not sure what the % is, but that is the likely shift from the pre-2007 data to the 2007+ data.  That could also explain your question about the increase in hunters but not harvest - can't easily compare data either side of 2007, can only really look at trends past 2007.

Fall turkey hunters - not sure why the decrease, but as far as I know Iowa has a quota system by zones so this could be a local change, i.e. the quotas changed in certain zones?  Once the quota is reached no more tags are available.  Iowa has one of the best population monitoring programs, so maybe they proactively decreased fall turkey tags a while back, not sure?

[owlhoot]

yes Iowa , all kinds of information on there sight. The data says that 2007 shift. Are you saying that mail in surveys are or where more dependable than mandatory? That they took the time to mail in the kill and now half don't? Maybe I am missing something.
Yes it looks like the harvest has been stable . I just pointed out that what was puzzling is that the huge increase of hunters and still the same amount killed.
Just having a discussion. Looking at the charts , most of my posts are as much of what do guys think rather than I know . I'm just reading and looking at the charts. Since 2007 to 2019 licensed fall turkey hunters fell from 11,024 to 6,296. Question is why?
Iowa coon hunters still take a lot of raccoons. In 2011-2014  Around 300k, fell after until 2019 or so to around 100k. Last Missouri report I think said 22k killed?

Those are good observations and questions.  I don't have all the answers either, just trying to look at what data is available to help guide the discussion (knowing that data is never perfect either).

Regarding 2007 vs. previous, I'm not sure if more people mailed in vs. online, I just remember there was quite a bit of pushback from hunters about the mandatory reporting and the thought is that not all hunters accurately report online.  Not sure what the % is, but that is the likely shift from the pre-2007 data to the 2007+ data.  That could also explain your question about the increase in hunters but not harvest - can't easily compare data either side of 2007, can only really look at trends past 2007.

Fall turkey hunters - not sure why the decrease, but as far as I know Iowa has a quota system by zones so this could be a local change, i.e. the quotas changed in certain zones?  Once the quota is reached no more tags are available.  Iowa has one of the best population monitoring programs, so maybe they proactively decreased fall turkey tags a while back, not sure?

they do the data don't they? 
Noticed that they jumped in and reduced tags after a poor hatch they said.  They seem to be doing good work. Would like to see that population of turkeys grow but being stable after seeing the declines in north Missouri, I would take stable for sure. I guess as far as this states reporting is concerned 2007 to present is what to look at to be able to come up with something.
Not a ton of spring hunters, but significant 55k 2007 to 47k in 2019.
Fall harvest dropped way down , but didn't have far to go to almost nothing.
Seem to be killing lots of coons, around 100k. Now maybe not enough per square mile but maybe some states could follow their lead.
This part kinda gets me. Turkey hunting is the big thing right now, but in this case 2019 spring harvest was 11,389.  Raccoon hunting isn't a big thing but yet 100k harvested. Doesn't that stick out as a problem with the population of prey/predator ? Ecological balance .
They do have  a lot of zones with quotas and 4 seasons spring too. Not sure how many of those a resident can hunt ? Non resident by draw and 1 bird limit for a max of 2,148 licenses, no non resident youth. And if you don't have an valid license you don't get to go out and call or assist for others that do have a valid license.

[Southerngobbler]

When I lived in New Mexico 20 something years ago they would adjust the turkey bag limit every year. Sometimes it was one bird, sometimes it was two depending on the circumstances. IDK if they still do it like that or not but it seems like a good idea-to be flexible  and adjust as needed. Don't really see any other states doing that.

[quavers59]

   I might try my Luck next Sprng on Mississippi  Public Land. Maybe if,I  arrive 5 days early,I  will have a Tom located before the Hordes move in on me.
   Just a thought right now.  There has to be good pockets of Birds,I  can find before ,I  see Arkansas Plates next to my SUV.

[greencop01]

In Massachusetts the opener is the beginning of the second gobbling period. The theory is that the big toms have a chance to reproduce. We have so many turkeys near the population centers they are considered vermin by the locals. Last year they went to two toms a day, the Spring limit. The state went up a bird with two in the Spring and one in the Fall. The state is trying to thin out the flock.                                                                     
                I think there should be a national study of states that have their opener at the beginning of the second gobbling peak allowing the first peak to have no hunting while the big toms have a chance to breed. Jakes breed but I think they have poorer broods than mature toms that have fought their way there way for the hens. Just my opinion and my  worth.

[redleg06]

Found this old post and I've got turkey on the brain... 

Do I think turkey harvest have an impact on turkey numbers? Yes, to an extent. I get to hunt quite a bit of public land across a handful of states and, generally speaking, the areas with less pressure do tend to have more birds. That should be pretty obvious - if you have good habitat and fewer predators (hunters in this case) there's going to be more turkey.  Does that mean I think bag limits are the biggest issue? No- I think your average hunter shoots one, maybe two per year...for that guy, it doesn't matter if the bag limit is 10 birds a season, he's shooting his one bird and then going fishing.  Most guys on here aren't representative of your "average" hunter....or you wouldn't be spending your free time on a forum about turkey.   I'm not advocating for a 5 bird bag limit but I don't think it's the biggest factor either.  I DO, think that the season timing is critically important because season's starting too early is going to disrupt the breeding window and can/do result in some hens not getting bred....which is one less turkey that has the ability to reproduce that year.

Again, given that habitat is decent (it doesn't have to be ideal, in my experience) I think the single biggest issue is NEST predators - raccoons in particular.  I forget the exact number but I believe its around 70% (someone correct me if you know what it is off the top of your head) of nest are destroyed or fail before the eggs ever get a chance to hatch.... That's an astoundingly high number when you consider every nest may have 10+ turkey that are getting wiped out before ever taking a breath of air.  I've spent way too much time trying to research this but you can look at population trends of wild turkey and then overlay them with time periods where raccoon and skunk populations were limited by disease and there's a definite overlap...I'm not a biologist but I can read a graph and when turkey numbers were at their height (from the early 90's to the early 2000's), also at it's height was rabies, during this same time period. I'm not advocating for rabies, just pointing out that when mother nature was controlling the nest predator population, the turkey population was at it's peak.  I won't flat out say that these two events overlapping factually correlated,  but it is a fact that these two events overlapped each other during that time frame.

Common sense tells me that more nest predators in an area= more nest destroyed. Less nest predators in an area = less nest destroyed.

...Which brings me to my next point - I don't have a problem with youtubers as long as they are responsible with how they handle keep areas discreet.  What I would call them to do is understand that they have a platform that reaches a lot of people and influences them. Some of these guys are celebrity status in their industry, at this point. Use that platform to help the game animal and influence people to do what they can (most people can afford a dog-proof raccoon trap, for example) to build/maintain the population. People do watch these video's and then go do what they see these guys do...that includes doing their part to help the turkey population. Whether you hunt public or private land, you can spend some time doing your part to put more turkey back in the woods...

[silvestris]

It is going to take a major die off ...................of turkey"hunters".  "We have met the enemy, and it is us,"

Hmmm, maybe time for Thanos

Or Bill Gates.