Turkey hunting forum for turkey hunting tips

So, I have been thinking....   I know it's dangerous when I do that, but I couldn't help it. I am beginning to think low gobbler numbers are a big part of the problem with dropping turkey numbers. Hear me out before you call me an idiot. Afterward, feel free to call me an idiot if you deem it fitting.
The last few years, the gobblers in my neck of the woods have been locked on hens from about mid-March to mid-June. I am beginning to think that there ain't enough gobblers to get the job done in a shorter window  and flood the landscape with nests. That's one of the factors that helps nesting success. Instead, we have a long strung out spring and summer of weirdness. I think we have lower nesting success as a result. I am not a deer nut, but I know that a more balanced buck to doe ratio leads to a shorter and more intense rut, and I can't help but wonder if that would be ideal on the turkey front as well. I am by no means a biologist and have zero professional training. It's just a thought I have been mulling over.
I done jacked up the title and probably did a horrible job of explaining it, but hopefully, a few get the gist of what I am saying.

Most studies point to high numbers of hens initiating nests.

I think your musings have merit, Happy, and are at least worth considering...considering the state of turkey populations in some areas of the country. In previous discussions on the matter, it has been pointed out that there HAS to be a tipping point where the number of gobblers in a population is inadequate to ensure breeding saturation...whether it be in the short term or the long term.

It is also reasonable to suggest that if that breeding saturation occurs in the short term...which logically would probably occur with more gobblers on the landscape...that (a set number of) predators would have a harder time destroying all of them. Conversely, over a longer nesting cycle, that same number of predators might have more impact. Again, I couldn't say for sure...but it is worth consideration (and hence, I will not declare you to be an idiot...in which case you would be joining the club  ;D )

It is pretty obvious that managers/agencies are searching for answers at this point. I suspect this possibility has already crossed their minds. Regardless, it doesn't hurt for those of us here to "muse " about it.   :D

 

I'll throw this out there...I've read and have heard that jakes are sexually mature, BUT the sperm is infertile at that age. I believe this to be true. That being said, I've heard and read that around 80% of hens will attempt to nest...this number seems high to me, however if a jake is infertile, why would a jenny hen not be infertile at that age also ? Or do they mature at a quicker rate than a jake does ? Side note. My brother has a couple of domestic turkeys. One is an mature hen and the other is a jake. Only 2 he has. The jake will gobble, strut, spit and drum, and follow her around. However, he has not been seen breeding the hen.


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So my question is why did I see more gobblers running together and hens out in the field and the gobblers didn't even pay any attention to each other? Also the hens really didn't pay any attention to the gobblers in like years past. I have seen Jakes do more interaction with gobblers as the gobblers were following them around this past season.

I had a group of 3 - two year old gobblers still running together this past spring.  No hens in the picture at all ...

I really don't have any answers.  Happy

But I will say I did see more gobblers / Jakes this year .. No problem with the numbers in my area, just not much breeding activity at all... JUST WEIRD ...

I had a member on the forum tell me before his opening morning season, he was hearing 10 different gobblers in his hunting area, after opening day and he did managed to kill one, and the next days following he didn't hear a gobbler and he hunted for several more days.

Good thoughts, but I think the opposite is true in areas I hunt. Too few hens. Twenty years ago, it was not unusual, common perhaps, to see one to three gobblers with a half dozen, or more, hens. That doesn't happen anymore. For example, my first local gobbler was from a flock of 3 adult gobblers, anywhere from 2 to as many as 9 jakes at any given time, and either 2 or 3 hens. I observed them multiple times both before, and after the season opened.

This seems to be the trend everywhere I hunt. I recall years ago, hunting a bird in Alabama for multiple days, but couldn't call him in. I inadvertently walked into the whole flock in high grass as I was walking out and they took flight across the field. A single gobbler and 12 hens. I haven't seen that, anywhere, for at least a decade.

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Quote from: Greg Massey on June 01, 2025, 10:09:34 AMSo my question is why did I see more gobblers running together and hens out in the field and the gobblers didn't even pay any attention to each other? Also the hens really didn't pay any attention to the gobblers in like years past. I have seen Jakes do more interaction with gobblers as the gobblers were following them around this past season.

I had a group of 3 - two year old gobblers still running together this past spring.  No hens in the picture at all ...

I really don't have any answers.  Happy

But I will say I did see more gobblers / Jakes this year .. No problem with the numbers in my area, just not much breeding activity at all... JUST WEIRD ...

I had a member on the forum tell me before his opening morning season, he was hearing 10 different gobblers in his hunting area, after opening day and he did managed to kill one, and the next days following he didn't hear a gobbler and he hunted for several more days.

Maybe you got a bunch of strong, independent hens that don't need no gobbler Greg. Or maybe they have horrible personalities, and the gobblers would just rather batch it and hang out.I get what you saying. I think this year has been "weird" for a lot of folks. My observations are more about the long breeding season i have been noticing for the last few years.

I suspect the same reason we are seeing 5-1 male mallards to female mallards in duck season. Hens are getting killed on the nest at higher rates than hunters are killing drakes/gobblers.
Turkey hens aren't hunted but in many places their numbers are still struggling.

This topic is serious business

Quote from: Happy on June 01, 2025, 12:09:13 PM

Quote from: Greg Massey on June 01, 2025, 10:09:34 AMSo my question is why did I see more gobblers running together and hens out in the field and the gobblers didn't even pay any attention to each other? Also the hens really didn't pay any attention to the gobblers in like years past. I have seen Jakes do more interaction with gobblers as the gobblers were following them around this past season.

I had a group of 3 - two year old gobblers still running together this past spring.  No hens in the picture at all ...

I really don't have any answers.  Happy

But I will say I did see more gobblers / Jakes this year .. No problem with the numbers in my area, just not much breeding activity at all... JUST WEIRD ...

I had a member on the forum tell me before his opening morning season, he was hearing 10 different gobblers in his hunting area, after opening day and he did managed to kill one, and the next days following he didn't hear a gobbler and he hunted for several more days.

Maybe you got a bunch of strong, independent hens that don't need no gobbler Greg. Or maybe they have horrible personalities, and the gobblers would just rather batch it and hang out.I get what you saying. I think this year has been "weird" for a lot of folks. My observations are more about the long breeding season i have been noticing for the last few years.

Is this REALLY a long breeding season?  Hear me out.  The females are the drivers of most of the wildlife species.  They are the dictators of what happens IMO.  The hens, in this case, are the ones that go to the gobblers when they are ready to be breed.  The gobblers are there for pomp and circumstance (Show and Go).  The hen will only SQUAT when she is ready to have her eggs fertilized.  The gobblers only surround themselves with as many hens as they can and are DRAGGED all over the fields and woods by the hens not the other way around.  They only follow what is available to them and will only search when they are completely alone.  IMO the gobblers, want and have company to try and breed as many hens as possible but how many of us have ACTUALLY seen hens being bred.  I have read that most of the time, breeding takes place very discreetly.  Personally, I have only seen the deed done 1 time and that was this season.  The hen squatted, the gobbler mounted her and she immediately launched out from under him before he could even finish.  GREAT DISCUSSION GUYS!

I am talking about a 3 month window. I realize that hens that lose nests will re-breed, but it just seems like it is stretching out longer and longer than what it was several years ago.  My pea brain can't help but think it can't be good for nesting success rates either.

Quote from: arkrem870 on June 01, 2025, 01:04:07 PMI suspect the same reason we are seeing 5-1 male mallards to female mallards in duck season. Hens are getting killed on the nest at higher rates than hunters are killing drakes/gobblers.
Turkey hens aren't hunted but in many places their numbers are still struggling.

This topic is serious business

Boom. Recent research is finding the alarmingly high predation rates on hens. And recent research is also showing that HEN SURVIVAL is one of the top contributing factors to population growth!

As far as "delayed breeding". I'm confident its not from lack of adult gobblers (in MOST areas. In some small localized scenarios it could be). A longer breeding window is more likely caused by weather and nest predation. You'll see this near large river bottoms that are severely impacted by flooding.

Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 01, 2025, 01:48:51 PM

Quote from: arkrem870 on June 01, 2025, 01:04:07 PMI suspect the same reason we are seeing 5-1 male mallards to female mallards in duck season. Hens are getting killed on the nest at higher rates than hunters are killing drakes/gobblers.
Turkey hens aren't hunted but in many places their numbers are still struggling.

This topic is serious business

Boom. Recent research is finding the alarmingly high predation rates on hens. And recent research is also showing that HEN SURVIVAL is one of the top contributing factors to population growth!

As far as "delayed breeding". I'm confident its not from lack of adult gobblers (in MOST areas. In some small localized scenarios it could be). A longer breeding window is more likely caused by weather and nest predation. You'll see this near large river bottoms that are severely impacted by flooding.

Predation is the elephant in the room. Nearly all studies point back to this.  In Arkansas you can overlay a poult production chart and a fur price chart.....they follow the same trajectories.

Unfortunately trapping is one of the hardest things for dnr to implement. In arkansas we introduced a predator control permit that allows us to take predators year round. Every state should have a similar program. I also advocate for loaner trap programs. Workshops. I am open to discuss bounties / earn a tag options with predator tails/hides. Etc.

Dnr's go the route of delayed seasons.etc and more regulations because they can be done with the stroke of a pen and don't require the work of mass predator removal. And it also doesn't have the optics of straight up killing nest predators and throwing them in a ditch.

Thats why it's critical to at LEAST own a dozen dog profs and run them on your properties a few times a year within your states guidelines.

Quote from: arkrem870 on June 01, 2025, 02:32:58 PM

Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 01, 2025, 01:48:51 PM

Quote from: arkrem870 on June 01, 2025, 01:04:07 PMI suspect the same reason we are seeing 5-1 male mallards to female mallards in duck season. Hens are getting killed on the nest at higher rates than hunters are killing drakes/gobblers.
Turkey hens aren't hunted but in many places their numbers are still struggling.

This topic is serious business

Boom. Recent research is finding the alarmingly high predation rates on hens. And recent research is also showing that HEN SURVIVAL is one of the top contributing factors to population growth!

As far as "delayed breeding". I'm confident its not from lack of adult gobblers (in MOST areas. In some small localized scenarios it could be). A longer breeding window is more likely caused by weather and nest predation. You'll see this near large river bottoms that are severely impacted by flooding.

Predation is the elephant in the room. Nearly all studies point back to this.  In Arkansas you can overlay a poult production chart and a fur price chart.....they follow the same trajectories.

Unfortunately trapping is one of the hardest things for dnr to implement. In arkansas we introduced a predator control permit that allows us to take predators year round. Every state should have a similar program. I also advocate for loaner trap programs. Workshops. I am open to discuss bounties / earn a tag options with predator tails/hides. Etc.

Dnr's go the route of delayed seasons.etc and more regulations because they can be done with the stroke of a pen and don't require the work of mass predator removal. And it also doesn't have the optics of straight up killing nest predators and throwing them in a ditch.

Thats why it's critical to at LEAST own a dozen dog profs and run them on your properties a few times a year within your states guidelines.

If this is True and it probably is, why doesn't the DNR's take the blinders off and STOP ALL hen hunting.  Many States allow hens to be legal especially during fall seasons.  We hunters know, the female of the species is the key to the populations.  If you want to increase numbers, stop killing and protect the females and if you want to decrease numbers increase your quotas on the females.

I am seeing the exact opposite. Plenty of hens compared to the amount of gobblers. Hence, what seems to be an extended breeding season.

From a biological standpoint the harvest of hens in limited falls seasons is considered insignificant. The same is said about Jake harvest. It's biologically insignificant

This was the stance for many years in the turkey community and regulations limiting these two were considered feel good regulations. That said I support the protection of hens and Jakes though it probably doesn't mean a lot from a production standpoint point in the grand scheme. We also can't ignore the hunter satisfaction part of regulations which are biologically insignificant for raising turkeys and to reduce hunter conflict.  These type regulations are the newest flavor of the week. 

Quote from: Happy on June 01, 2025, 04:08:16 PMI am seeing the exact opposite. Plenty of hens compared to the amount of gobblers. Hence, what seems to be an extended breeding season.

That's a wonderful problem to have!  Also consider yearling hens /jenny hens are less likely to initiate a nest. So if you had a good hatch last year (and many places did). This could be part of the reason.... Young hens that are not breeding hanging out with the gobblers all day

I almost hate to enter this discussion as I know my true feelings would not be align with the popular feelings. I think that there is merit to most of the theories mentioned, but the most critical component is yet to be discovered. I have witnessed the meteoric rise of turkeys in many areas as "They exploded" to fill open habitat. There are density levels and there are carrying capacities. A common phenomenon in wildlife reintroduction is for species to overpopulate and shoot to high densities above carrying capacity. The population eventually declines to a sustained level at carrying capacity. This process doesn't happen quickly but takes decades. In my 55 years of turkey hunting I have watched it happen over and over. Much of what is happening now is beyond that and some outlying factor is at work. Normal harvest regulations never affected populations for decades, including the both sex fall seasons. Suddenly birds started declining in areas that had sustained flocks for decades. My feelings are that harvest regulations are not a problem nor a fix. If there is a new factor in play, no matter what you do with regulations will matter. We can hypothesize about the cause all we want, but research will have to vet out the evidence and cause. I have watched other species go through the same thing. Ruffed Grouse in the east were plentiful and there was no restriction on sex harvested. All of a sudden they started disappearing and regulations couldn't stop it. Look at non game species. Bald Eagles almost disappeared and they were not a game species. It wasn't until the causative agent was discovered that the decline was halted. It was pesticides poisoning them. I am not blaming a pesticide now, but saying it is not a matter of too long a season, over killing gobblers or shooting hens. We shoot both sexes of many species and they still flourish. I bet if they ceased all turkey seasons we'd still see the decline. I do think depredation is a factor but not the biggy. My bet is on disease, like avian flu. I know on my family farm ( approx. 1200 acres all wooded) we had a great flock of birds for 40 years and we controlled the harvest very strictly. We never took more then 20% of the adult gobblers we knew of and someone may shoot a hen in the fall once every three years. It was not uncommon to see a winter flock of 40 birds with even disbursement of hens and gobblers. I confess it made my hunting pretty easy. In a matter of three years, the flock was decimated and this last spring one side of the farm had about 10 gobblers (adults and jakes) and multiple hens. On the other side of the hills I never heard a gobbler and only saw one hen track. This side often held a dozen gobblers and countless hens in the spring. Turkey Hunting had nothing to do with this. I watched the same thing happen to an area in Kentucky. There's a rotten apple in the barrel somewhere and we just haven't found it. It could be weather, disease or something else. I have even wondered about deer baiting. I think Deer baiting and supplemental feeding took off just about the same time that declining turkey populations became a thing. See we can speculate about anything, but I do not blame hunting in any way and I don't think restricting the hunters will fix it. Sure there comes a time to regulate the hunting but it is only a reaction not a good strategy. Ok now you can call me an idiot.... 

You can join the idiot club with me a Gnut eggshell . Numbers are what they are. My musings are whether this rather lopsided hen/gobbler ratio is drawing out the breeding and if it's a good thing. I am concerned that it is not. No evidence either way. Just mulling it over.

I'll shim in saying that I don't like ANY male only type of hunting regulation... Be it deer, moose, turkey... To me, it doesn't make sence to kill male only for years and years and not expect an unbalanced male-female ratio someday... In my neck of the woods, when I do my pre-season scouting, I'd say the ratio is 1 male for 3-4 females wich is good... and that includes jake. But logicaly, after hunting season, this ratio changes since we only kill male during spring...

I know that very few people will think like me, but I think that to keep things balanced, we should not stick with the male only law... We should hunt both sex equaly to keep things more balanced and put less pressure on males...

And another thing I'll shim in with...

Numbers of tag allowed and lost of nesting habitat...

Is it just me or states with higher numbers of tags allowed are now the ones where we are talking about significant turkey population drop?

If you read my comment above, let's say you pressure male only for many years, allowing hunters to harvest let's say, 5 to 6 toms a year... Wouldn't that be logic that after many years you now have less turkeys than before? Killing males during breeding season, expecting things to stay the same... I'm definitely not blaming anyone, that's just how I think!

And second thing... Lost of nesting habitat. I think that good nesting habitat are very important for breeding success and nesting habitats are usually forest or portions of them that are left unmanaged and overgrown, humid habitat, etc... Could that be becoming rarer?

Lots of things I have seen this year are listed above. Groups of hens together still, gobblers not bothering with hens, responding and not working (huge % here), not as many nesting hens. The habitat around here is going down, huntable property is getting more scarce, more predators( bobcats are everywhere now) and nest raiders. All these things are happening all the time, it just seems that we are at  where the "total stress" on turkeys is at an all time high. More land is posted, more land is getting developed, nobody traps anymore, more human predators as well. I am pressing my state F&G to try to look ahead so we don't suffer the fate of a lot of traditionally good turkey hunting states that have seen numbers go way down. I'm not all doom and gloom, but a realist. Not doing anything is not going to improve our situation. Good luck to you all, Z

Hello all, my name is John and I'm an idiot.

Great read everyone.

Im able to identify what most are saying.

Last season. Jake's, Jake's, and more Jake's. Not a lot of hens.

I've had 2 straight season's where there were an abundance of Jake's.

This year you would think I'd be covered up w/2yo's. This wasn't the case. Still covered up with them and not a lot of hens.


I did call in 4 long beards together a couple of weeks ago. I've never had that happen to me. Four seemed to be a bit odd. I would think the breeding is over when adult males re assemble like this.

Most have read about the cancellation of Nj's fall turkey season. I'm hoping my home state reduces the bag limit as well. All things to be considered here, I hope we can find the answers.

Be Well
Johnny

Everyone making valid observations and points regarding the problems we are seeing in (certain) areas of the country. Ultimately, it comes down to reproductive success...and the stability of that over time. We either have to identify the causes of that reproductive failure and find solutions to them or our hunting quality and quantity will continue to decline...at least on public land. Unfortunately, public lands are rarely managed to benefit a single species such as wild turkeys. They are managed on a "landscape-wide" scale...and from what I have seen that management rarely is of specific benefit to turkeys. A lot of the problems could be solved if they were, but we are not likely to see that happen.

We talk about predator management...and I totally agree that would have a major impact on turkey numbers. However, public land managers must also answer to the public-at-large, not just hunters. Anybody that thinks wildlife managers in this day-and-age are going to overtly promote predator management on public lands is kidding themselves, fellers. It ain't gonna happen.

Private landowners, on the other hand, already have the option of managing their lands however they want to (within legal parameters), including predator management and implementing management strategies that are favorable to wild turkeys if so desired. However, that applies to both landowners managing their properties for hunting...and those that are managing their properties to attract turkeys to keep them from being hunted. Make no mistake, there are increasing numbers of people that fit into that second category. That is a part of our problem, as well. Over time, turkeys are completely capable of realizing which properties it is in their best interest to stay on.

Traveling to different areas of the country to hunt, it has become obvious to me that in places with "checkerboard" land ownership...that is, an intermixing of public and private holdings, we are seeing a migration of game animals towards those private holdings. Those private lands almost invariably have more favorable habitat components than the public lands that might be found in the area...and that is even if those private lands are not being consciously managed to benefit turkeys.

Back to the recruitment problem (reproductive success), that can again be accomplished through changes in management which enhance/eliminate/mitigate those factors impacting that (again, not likely to happen on PUBLIC lands) or serious consideration could be made for artificial means of supplementing turkey numbers. I have said this before...there are plenty of places in this country where turkeys are a nuisance problem, where they are not being hunted, and could be translocated into places where they might possibly help recovery efforts in certain turkey populations. Personally, I don't understand why this option is (apparently) not being explored more seriously. ...Enough for now... 

I don't know exactly what has happened, a combination of a lot of variables, but I do not think a lack of males is the problem. Declining numbers of hens is the problem that I see, and less hens= less poults = less turkeys of both sexes. After a few years, the population has dropped tremendously.

The other possibility and from what I witnessed in middle GA was what seemed to me to be disease. For years, I hunted a 10K acre tract in middle GA that was mostly contiguous and was very lightly hunted as the owner bought and managed the land for quail. The land has it all, planted AG fields, hardwoods, brood fields for quail and a very good trapping and burning program. There was normally 3 of us and we usually stayed 4-7 days and had the whole 10K acres to ourselves. Turkey were abundant and it was normal to call up multiple birds over the days we hunted, no matter where we were on the land.

Then, a few years back, we get down there for opening week and there is very little sign nor visual sightings and not just on this land. The surrounding fields, where we normally saw flocks of birds, were vacant. We hunted a couple days and then left and went to another area 60 miles north of there and saw plenty of birds.

That fall during deer season and into the next spring showed virtually no turkeys anymore. Normally on our fall and last weekend deer hunts, it was common to see huge flocks of turkeys, but they were nonexistent.

I just cannot believe that they just disappeared almost overnight, especially the hen population. The one thing that crossed my mind was the owner had leased some of the AG fields to a farmer that used chicken manure and I noticed a lot of surrounding farmers went back to using chicken manure and I wonder if there was a disease of some sort brought into the area.

Talking to the landowner recently, he mentioned not seeing us down there in a couple years and we told him about the lack of turkeys, and he stated that the turkeys seem to be coming back now that he doesn't know what happened.

It's not habitat loss (nothing changed), it's not killing too many (we left lots of gobblers), it's not killing them too early (there again, we left lots of birds), it's not predation , but something happened over a 1.5-3 year period that decimated that flock. It appears that the lack of hens has slowly spread most of the state. It used to be common where I hunted to see 8-10 hens with 2-3 gobblers and have more than one flock like that. Now, I rarely see more than 1-2 hens together.

Sorry so long, it's just difficult to know that the best place that I have ever hunted went down hill so fast and now not worth the 180 mile drive. But hopefully, the birds will be back enough to hunt next spring.

What I find strange is that the problems you guys are having are occurring all the way over here in Oregon.

Sixes that's what I saw happen in t wo different areas 100 miles apart. Those kind of scenarios don't happen from flaws in the hunting regulations. I'll say it until I am proven wrong....it's not a hunting problem, period!

Quote from: eggshell on June 01, 2025, 04:50:34 PMWe can hypothesize about the cause all we want, but research will have to vet out the evidence and cause.

There's a rotten apple in the barrel somewhere and we just haven't found it. It could be weather, disease or something else. 

Thank you.  I believe there is truth in this.  Pivoting to quail, in our area we have a season here but no huntable local populations in recent history. It's certainly not because of hunting pressure because—these days--there isn't any.  When turkeys were super plentiful 20 years ago it was a common theory that turkeys were to blame somehow since the decline in quail densities dovetailed with the rise in turkey populations.  You don't hear about that much anymore.  I have always thought there has to be some underlying reason(s) for these declines that we just don't fully understand.
 
Maybe it is disease.  Years ago I was in on a quail lease in Texas.  For years the hunting was fabulous, paradise–on-earth fabulous.  One otherwise productive season we made a late season trip down there and birds were hard to find.  The few we did take were obviously sick.  I understand this was happening not just on this ranch, but throughout west-central Texas.  It took a few years for the population to recover, but eventually it did.  The solution here was simply to let nature run it's course.

Weather could certainly be a culprit.  Here locally we had a decent, huntable quail population at one time.  They literally went extinct for over a decade following two bad, icy winters in a row both followed by unusually wet springs.  (Just the last few years we're starting to see a few birds return.) It sure seems like weather was the factor here but it's really just an anecdotal guess.

My pet theory is that genetics could be an issue.  When I was a kid we had a stunted out fishing pond that we rotenoned and started over with.  Instead of restockling with hatchery fish we fashioned a live tank and restocked with mature bass, catfish and bluegill caught fishing from different sources, mostly other stunted out farm ponds.  What happened was amazing, for years it was the healthiest most productive fishing imaginable until it became stunted out again despite relentless culling.  It's not exactly a control group, but it sure seems like similar ponds I know of stocked conventionally never had anything close to the vigor our pond had.  I often wonder if we had continued to stock genetically diverse fish if that would have made a difference?

Is it a coincidence that the boom in turkey populations followed state agencies transplanting birds from various remnant, somewhat inbred "island" populations with diverse genetics into fresh territory?  Certainly normal biological population cycles were a factor but what if fresh genetics were introduced now by transplanting back and forth across a wide geography for it's own sake?  I don't know but it would be a doable study done by or with cooperation from the state agencies.

Well meaning folks are anxious to "do something", but you have to know what to do.  Someone with our conservation department once told me something that made a lot of sense.  We were talking about quail and avian predators.  Obviously hawks and owls are hard on quail, but from the state's point of view, it's a non-issue since there's no direct solution.  We're better off worrying about habitat issues and things we can reasonably impact, and zero in on what is practical and sustainable.

I totally agree with you that the answer, if there is one, lies in real, objective research so that decisions are made on reality and not guesswork, politics or wishful thinking.  Sorry for the long winded ramble!       

Thx. Bill for your comments. Genetics could be a factor as well. I know in one other discussion Gobblenut offered his thoughts that perhaps it's more like death from a thousand cuts and not just one thing. You are also correct in focusing on what can be fixed.

On your fish analogy. I can add some expertise to that. Some on here know my career was as a fisheries biologist, specifically I was a Fish Hatchery Manager. Your experience is a good observation and has a lot of merit. We kept extensive records on our fish stocks as a state agency and most states openly traded stocks of the same species and strains to keep a genetically diverse population. In captive stocks they kept very close records to prevent genetic degradation. I do not know but I would suspect perhaps some private commercial growers may use the same stock for decades and see some issues, but I don't know for sure. To completely wipe a pond out and start over is a valid strategy. Sometimes people just want to add some new fish to the mix, but that seldom works out well. Most fish stocks carry enough diversity, but the age of a pond is usually around 25 years in the midwest and then you see a decline. NUtrient levels for the plankton that is necessary for young fish growth is usually depleted. Supplemental fertilization and liming can help. Sometimes they need dredged as well. I usually would recommend starting over with fingerlings but if your disciplined with how many adults and do a good job of selecting a sex ratio you can do well that way. Would this make a difference in turkey flocks, I don't know but I do think it would be worth a shot. I know most states significantly decreased trap and transfer programs. I wonder if someone has looked to see if the declines coincided with those programs slowing or stopping?

There was never enough diversity in the gene pool when they restocked transplanted turkeys.
Hard to say if and how much disease is a factor.

Some areas are closer to carrying capacity than some want to believe. The declines in many areas are 20 plus years in the making having peaked early 2000s after the population exploded.

It appears to me management is a big factor. The states that have kept the opener later and been conservative with bag limits are doing well.

States that traditionally opened early and or had liberal bag limits especially where hunters could purchase seemingly unlimited tags are seeing the sharpest declines. I think there's a correlation. These states were forced to make changes quickly to stop the bleeding.  Look at Arkansas,  the harvest numbers have improved past couple years despite later opener, 1 bird first week etc. That's not by coincidence.

States have to be the regulators. We can't rely on hunters to self regulate.

Arkansas started a delayed opener 10+ years ago.   It's reckless to use us as an example. The data is not there to support the claims of chamberlain etc in Arkansas.  In 14 years (how long later openers has been going on) having a couple bumps in production would be expected. Favorable weather is the culprit. That said....this year has been a raining mess. So definitely concerned about poult survival

Quote from: Ihuntoldschool on June 03, 2025, 05:08:47 PMThere was never enough diversity in the gene pool when they restocked transplanted turkeys.

My guess is that most of the released birds came from a single area or two. That would support the theory of a small gene pool. Those birds could mix with any residents, but many areas had no residents. I do not know of any agencies even doing any genetic modeling, they just trapped and released. They genetics issue is just another target on the dart board in reality.

Quote from: eggshell on Today at 07:02:34 AM

Quote from: Ihuntoldschool on June 03, 2025, 05:08:47 PMThere was never enough diversity in the gene pool when they restocked transplanted turkeys.

My guess is that most of the released birds came from a single area or two. That would support the theory of a small gene pool.

^ That is a fact they absolutely did.
Many died in 1st year in new area further limiting gene pool.

Im sure disease plays a role along with many other factors. Habitat loss, timber harvest big factor in Southeast,  nest predators,  weather, more avian predators than ever before.

Agriculture practices, Hunting pressure impacting nesting success, all day hunting, season timing .

State wildlife agencies have their hands full.

Here's a pod cast that you all might find interesting. It's a gardening/market farming podcast but his guest today is one of the bird experts from Cornell. You'll come away thinking....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn9Gs0nmUo0