20022, a tough year in the North East. I hunt NJ, and NY every year. I spend at least 25 days a field each spring hunting, and about 3 weeks pre-season scouting. I did have a successful season, but I sure worked very hard. I definitely have seen a decline in the last 2 years in our populations. Encouraging news is I did call in some Jake's, and numerous hens. I even saw a hen with 9 chicks. I stopped into a local sport shop in NJ today for some Fly Fishing leaders. I chatted with the owner about the Turkey season. He did say hunters were complaining about a lack of turkeys. He told me a concerning story about a fish & game person showing him a series of videos of Turkey poults he recorded in the past few weeks. The first one shows a hen with 8 poults. A few minutes later, he shows him a bear chasing the hen, and scattering the poults. The next video shows a fox with a poult in it's mouth. Are predators causing the down trend in the population, is it the mature habitat/woods making it easy for predators to get the poults? Is it a combination of both, or is there other factors in play? Would love to hear your thoughts and input. Thanks....
I hunted in NY this year and the numbers are definitely declining. I did score on the 2nd day, but it was the worst season that i have experienced in the last 30+ years.
In my area the amount of gobblers gobbling was down , but gobblers were around. I did see a large amount of Jake's and hens this year. I'm not sure we can blame it all on the predators reason being i had coyotes come within 100 yards of myself with hens and Jake's out in the field and they really didn't seem to upset or bother the turkeys. Sure the turkeys watched them etc .. Sure i know predators do cause harm, but again i really don't know who or what to blame for declining numbers in some areas and states etc. I think we do need to get back to tagging and radio transmitters on turkeys and trying to figure out what's happened to the population.
Generally speaking turkeys are on a down cycle throughout the country, a multitude of issues, starting with habitat and predators!
Hopefully it is a cycle and it turns around, but it is scary the way it is happening all over!
Time to get proactive however you can. Lots of good research going on currently too.
Great replies. Yes, it is concerning, and I hope we can turn it around......
Tough season for me. Still successful but worked for it. Gobbling was way down as reported elsewhere. Don't know why that'd be. Early season was a whole lot of low pressure overcast weather but even on the good days they were quiet. As far as overall population decline, it's that whole death by a thousand cuts: predation, nest raiders, disease, habitat loss, etc. But I'm pretty convinced the greatest impact over the past few years has been made by us, by hunters. I don't see how you can have places where there is a known >80% harvest of adult gobblers and couple that with hens having gone from four to five poults per hen to one poult per hen survival rates and then look dumbfounded when the numbers go down. It's a lot of things. But I wholeheartedly believe the biggest factor is us and that there's a whole lot of state agencies more interested in money than management.
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Quote from: ChesterCopperpot on June 01, 2022, 07:57:36 PM
Tough season for me. Still successful but worked for it. Gobbling was way down as reported elsewhere. Don't know why that'd be. Early season was a whole lot of low pressure overcast weather but even on the good days they were quiet. As far as overall population decline, it's that whole death by a thousand cuts: predation, nest raiders, disease, habitat loss, etc. But I'm pretty convinced the greatest impact over the past few years has been made by us, by hunters. I don't see how you can have places where there is a known >80% harvest of adult gobblers and couple that with hens having gone from four to five poults per hen to one poult per hen survival rates and then look dumbfounded when the numbers go down. It's a lot of things. But I wholeheartedly believe the biggest factor is us and that there's a whole lot of state agencies more interested in money than management.
Great info Dave. Hopefully the wildlife divisions will realize what's happening and come up with measures to help stabilize and bring our resource back.....
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I'm a trapper, the last 5 years or so the fur market has been on a downward spiral. Which in turn discourages trappers, and leads to more predators.
I seen more than a few raccoons this spring, that I'm sure we're searching for turkey nests.
Russia and China are the biggest consumer of raccoon pelts, and with their economy being in the tank for the past 5 to 10 years or more, it's not helping the turkey population. Of course they are not the only predators of our grand bird, but raccoons are the most trapped predator in our country.
Also with the anti trapping community putting pressure on certain states, to pass rediculous laws against trapping only adds to the problem.
I'm not blaming it all on predators alone, but my opinion is that they are one of the biggest problems
Strange thing is here on Long Island we have an exploding population. They are proposing the first ever spring season next May. I see turkeys all over the place now, they even roosted on my shed roof a few weeks ago. The one thing we don't have is coyotes, fishers, bear and other predators. The only predators we have are fox, hawks and cars lol. So maybe an over abundance of predators is the reason.
Sounds like some of you northern guys are starting to see what we have been seeing in south for the last 5-7 years.
Sudden declines for no explained reasons and not just Toms missing but the hen population is on a downward spiral.
I saw a huge healthy population over a 10,000 acre private plantation go from boom to bust in a year and get worse the following year and hunting pressure is basically nonexistent.
At the time, I blamed it on the hens getting some kind of disease from the use of chicken manure (they switched from liquid fertilizer to using the manure) and I still think that started the problem. At the time of the big population, it was common to see flocks with a dozen or more hens and several gobblers all over the place and it changed all at one time.
Something killed the hens and now instead of a bunch of hens having a bunch of poults every year, it now has very few hens, so the poult production is a lot less and it is much tougher for poults to survive predation. If the woods are full of little turkeys, more will survive than if there are just a few poults.
The problem I see now is that the population cannot explode back due to a lot less hens and unless we have some great hatches 3-4 years in a row, the population will never come back.
Quote from: lunghit on June 01, 2022, 08:17:26 PM
Strange thing is here on Long Island we have an exploding population. They are proposing the first ever spring season next May. I see turkeys all over the place now, they even roosted on my shed roof a few weeks ago. The one thing we don't have is coyotes, fishers, bear and other predators. The only predators we have are fox, hawks and cars lol. So maybe an over abundance of predators is the reason.
The other thing you don't have is a spring season. We're the most effective predator.
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Where I hunt in NY it has been declining bad for the past 5 years or so. I only heard 2 gobbles all season and never saw a bird. I hunt with my dad and brother and neither of them heard a single bird. I hunt pretty big
parcels of land and usually cover 8-10 miles a day(tracker on onyx). The 2 gobbles I did hear gobbled on the rooste 2 times and never again all day. I am not sure what to do going forward. I am looking into new areas.
I know up north the population is actually growing.
Quote from: lunghit on June 01, 2022, 08:17:26 PM
Strange thing is here on Long Island we have an exploding population. They are proposing the first ever spring season next May. I see turkeys all over the place now, they even roosted on my shed roof a few weeks ago. The one thing we don't have is coyotes, fishers, bear and other predators. The only predators we have are fox, hawks and cars lol. So maybe an over abundance of predators is the reason.
My parents bought a house in Montauk in the 1960, I grew up hunting duck in the salt marshes and and pass shooting divers and sea ducks on the beach sandspits and bars. NEVER saw any turkeys anywhere in that region for decades. Think they released some out there in the early 90s and they took well. I see turkeys in Suffolk County now when I go out there, which is infrequently. I really can't imagine hunting out there now, it's gotten so bought out and built up in a bad way if you ask me. But other parts of Suffolk might be ok for a well managed spring hunt.
To the OP's question; IDK!
I think there are many reasons for these declines and in some areas it may not be the same as in other areas. Se areas are not declining at all.
I hunt a fairly large hunting club, it comprises of +-62,000 acres. It has a lot of paying members, 2500+ I think. Kids 18 and under are in, full time students are in, wives, husbands, as long as there is a paying member in the house hold.
A lot of these guys are not turkey hunters, some just ride ATV's, fish, camp, deer hunt, whatever... Some of the places you may hunt are packed with people, some have no people, you get the drift.
I typically try to stay away from the hot spots and have worked to find some secluded areas that I frequent. This year there where little turkeys in my areas. Very little actually! Now, you may say it is because of a decline in population??? But, a friend hunts 5-7 miles from me, same club, and was covered up in toms all season?
For this property and where I hunt it, the only explanation I have is the winter flocks did not break up early enough and move into my hunting areas. That's all I can come up with.
At my house, where I have very limited amount of ground to hunt. I had a 52 bird winter flock within a quarter mile of my house for 4 months, visible. When they busted up they didn't move far at all. I could hear birds 360 degrees from behind my house on the ridge, couldn't hunt most of them, but they didn't go far.
Point being, what does the guy down the road from my house think that hasn't heard much? Especially, when I could hear 6-8 from my house in a morning?
Just something else to think about.
Quote from: ChesterCopperpot on June 01, 2022, 08:28:08 PM
Quote from: lunghit on June 01, 2022, 08:17:26 PM
Strange thing is here on Long Island we have an exploding population. They are proposing the first ever spring season next May. I see turkeys all over the place now, they even roosted on my shed roof a few weeks ago. The one thing we don't have is coyotes, fishers, bear and other predators. The only predators we have are fox, hawks and cars lol. So maybe an over abundance of predators is the reason.
The other thing you don't have is a spring season. We're the most effective predator.
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Yes that is true.
Quote from: Zobo on June 01, 2022, 09:15:35 PM
Quote from: lunghit on June 01, 2022, 08:17:26 PM
Strange thing is here on Long Island we have an exploding population. They are proposing the first ever spring season next May. I see turkeys all over the place now, they even roosted on my shed roof a few weeks ago. The one thing we don't have is coyotes, fishers, bear and other predators. The only predators we have are fox, hawks and cars lol. So maybe an over abundance of predators is the reason.
My parents bought a house in Montauk in the 1960, I grew up hunting duck in the salt marshes and and pass shooting divers and sea ducks on the beach sandspits and bars. NEVER saw any turkeys anywhere in that region for decades. Think they released some out there in the early 90s and they took well. I see turkeys in Suffolk County now when I go out there, which is infrequently. I really can't imagine hunting out there now, it's gotten so bought out and built up in a bad way if you ask me. But other parts of Suffolk might be ok for a well managed spring hunt.
I started seeing turkeys in the late 90's and since then they have boomed. I live on the east end of the island and we have great deer hunting and hopefully turkey hunting soon. But yea it's getting harder and harder by the season. I have 7 years left here and I am out.
Great info, thought it was just my areas.....hopefully it will turn for us....
The lack of gobbles that so many have described is something I can't really wrap my head around. I think some folks hear that and think, "Yeah, you just weren't on birds," or, "Yeah, I hear that every year from folks when they get henned up; 'gobbled on the roost, quiet on the ground.'" Every year there's those folks who don't half hunt who say they think all the breeding got done early and nothing's talking. Every year there's those people who don't understand the stages the birds go through. We all know those people, the back to Hardees for a biscuit before nine crowd. But those aren't the people I'm talking about. I'm talking about people I know who are genuine killers who I know were on birds who said they just weren't gobbling much the entire season. I know for me I was all over birds but they weren't talking. Still killed them, but they weren't talking. Even at my house, I've got a pile of birds on my property. Had hens roosted on me every day and a couple good gobblers. Every spring I start climbing onto the ridge above my house to listen on March 1st. Usually by about the 20th they're hammering every morning. I go every morning that I don't hunt and listen till mid May. I'll usually hear five or six birds in different directions. This year I heard one gobble from up there. And the birds were there. I know the birds are there. I see them. I get them on camera. They just weren't gobbling. I've heard that from a lot of folks this year that I know are woodsmen and hunters, who I know were on birds, so I don't think it's coincidental. Now how in the world that happens or what causes a zip lipped season, I don't have the foggiest. Like I said earlier, the first two weeks were all low pressure, heavily overcast days when birds tend not to gobble great anyways, but even on those perfect bluebird, still, high pressure mornings it was radio silence on the limb and if and when they did get fired up it was late. For reference, I'm in the North Carolina mountains. But I heard it from folks in Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, etc.
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I believe 90% of our problem is the anti fur atmosphere.
Very few guys trapping like just a few years ago.
Every valley where I hunt is now flooded and taken over by beaver. That never was the case. There's more raccoons flattened on the roads then ever before.
:smiley-patriotic-flagwaver-an
Quote from: ChesterCopperpot on June 02, 2022, 06:57:25 AM
The lack of gobbles that so many have described is something I can't really wrap my head around. I think some folks hear that and think, "Yeah, you just weren't on birds," or, "Yeah, I hear that every year from folks when they get henned up; 'gobbled on the roost, quiet on the ground.'" Every year there's those folks who don't half hunt who say they think all the breeding got done early and nothing's talking. Every year there's those people who don't understand the stages the birds go through. We all know those people, the back to Hardees for a biscuit before nine crowd. But those aren't the people I'm talking about. I'm talking about people I know who are genuine killers who I know were on birds who said they just weren't gobbling much the entire season. I know for me I was all over birds but they weren't talking. Still killed them, but they weren't talking. Even at my house, I've got a pile of birds on my property. Had hens roosted on me every day and a couple good gobblers. Every spring I start climbing onto the ridge above my house to listen on March 1st. Usually by about the 20th they're hammering every morning. I go every morning that I don't hunt and listen till mid May. I'll usually hear five or six birds in different directions. This year I heard one gobble from up there. And the birds were there. I know the birds are there. I see them. I get them on camera. They just weren't gobbling. I've heard that from a lot of folks this year that I know are woodsmen and hunters, who I know were on birds, so I don't think it's coincidental. Now how in the world that happens or what causes a zip lipped season, I don't have the foggiest. Like I said earlier, the first two weeks were all low pressure, heavily overcast days when birds tend not to gobble great anyways, but even on those perfect bluebird, still, high pressure mornings it was radio silence on the limb and if and when they did get fired up it was late. For reference, I'm in the North Carolina mountains. But I heard it from folks in Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, etc.
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I've found what my grandad always said to be true .
If you have a good strong acorn crop that year they gobble better .
Poor crop ? They don't gobble as much it seems . What kind of acorn crop did you have this past year ?
I hunt in central VA, about 2/3 private and 1/3 public. I had a pretty tough season but managed to tag out, I did end up hunting every day but three (not counting Sundays) until 5/12. I heard a significant amount of gobbling but very little mid morning activity. All gobbling was on the roost or very late morning. One morning i was hunting private along a major creek and I could hear for a good 3/4 of a mile. I heard at least 7 different gobblers. They started gobbling at 6:05 and gobbled continuously until 6:35. I counted gobbles from 6:15 until 6:20 and counted 99 different gobbles, i could not tell any difference in the frequency of gobbling during the entire 30 minute period. When the turkeys flew down I never heard another peep, could not tell if they quit or if I just could not hear then after they hit the ground. It was the most awesome display of gobbling I have heard in my 44 springs of hunting. I was in a good place for turkeys to come to so I sat until 11:30 and did not hear or see anything else.
Quote from: ChesterCopperpot on June 02, 2022, 06:57:25 AM
The lack of gobbles that so many have described is something I can't really wrap my head around. I think some folks hear that and think, "Yeah, you just weren't on birds," or, "Yeah, I hear that every year from folks when they get henned up; 'gobbled on the roost, quiet on the ground.'" Every year there's those folks who don't half hunt who say they think all the breeding got done early and nothing's talking. Every year there's those people who don't understand the stages the birds go through. We all know those people, the back to Hardees for a biscuit before nine crowd. But those aren't the people I'm talking about. I'm talking about people I know who are genuine killers who I know were on birds who said they just weren't gobbling much the entire season. I know for me I was all over birds but they weren't talking. Still killed them, but they weren't talking. Even at my house, I've got a pile of birds on my property. Had hens roosted on me every day and a couple good gobblers. Every spring I start climbing onto the ridge above my house to listen on March 1st. Usually by about the 20th they're hammering every morning. I go every morning that I don't hunt and listen till mid May. I'll usually hear five or six birds in different directions. This year I heard one gobble from up there. And the birds were there. I know the birds are there. I see them. I get them on camera. They just weren't gobbling. I've heard that from a lot of folks this year that I know are woodsmen and hunters, who I know were on birds, so I don't think it's coincidental. Now how in the world that happens or what causes a zip lipped season, I don't have the foggiest. Like I said earlier, the first two weeks were all low pressure, heavily overcast days when birds tend not to gobble great anyways, but even on those perfect bluebird, still, high pressure mornings it was radio silence on the limb and if and when they did get fired up it was late. For reference, I'm in the North Carolina mountains. But I heard it from folks in Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, etc.
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There are definitely seasons that are quiet but you k ow the birds are around just from sign sightings while driving etc. Problem in my area is where I have seen and killed birds for the past 25 years I am not even seeing sign of any birds. Woods look as if birds have not been there in 1000 years. Thats the scary part. When you walk a field that has been turned over a week ago and there is not a single turkey track in it when there has been since I started hunting you start to worry.
Turkey hunters will spend lots of time and money to pursue turkeys, but very few will put the time and effort into predator control. How can we change this? I will give free instruction to anyone wanting to help reduce turkey predation in areas they hunt.
We can sit and speculate as to why turkey populations are down across the country.
Reading the various posts some have mentioned.
A. Habitat:
Urban Growth/Development
B. Predators:
Fox, Racoon, Opossum, Coyote, Skunk
Anti trapping community putting pressure on certain states, to pass ridiculous laws against trapping adds to the problem.
C. Over harvest of adult gobblers.
D. State agencies more interested in money management over wildlife management.
E. Disease
F. Farming methods and the overuse of insecticides.
I mention this because in Penna. Lancaster County was once the place to go to hunt pheasants. Due to cutting the crops to the earth, removing hedge rows and other habitat, and the overuse of insecticides it has been years since I last seen a ringneck.
The common denominator is man! We have a responsibility to be stewards for the use and protection of our environment but somehow, someway everything we touch seems to go awry!
Quote from: Turkeybutt on June 02, 2022, 08:51:27 AM
We can sit and speculate as to why turkey populations are down across the country.
Reading the various posts some have mentioned.
A. Habitat:
Urban Growth/Development
B. Predators:
Fox, Racoon, Opossum, Coyote, Skunk
Anti trapping community putting pressure on certain states, to pass ridiculous laws against trapping adds to the problem.
C. Over harvest of adult gobblers.
D. State agencies more interested in money management over wildlife management.
E. Disease
F. Farming methods and the overuse of insecticides.
I mention this because in Penna. Lancaster County was once the place to go to hunt pheasants. Due to cutting the crops to the earth, removing hedge rows and other habitat, and the overuse of insecticides it has been years since I last seen a ringneck.
The common denominator is man! We have a responsibility to be stewards for the use and protection of our environment but somehow, someway everything we touch seems to go awry!
Excellent post and you could not be more correct.
very interesting reading here. I'll agree with the opinions and I'll even add one. where I hunt there use to be an amazing amount of turkey then BAM, they're gone. I was complaining about this to a good friend that grew up on a farm in that area. he looked at me and said "daddy said the DNR took'em". I said what the heck are you talking about. he said the DNR ask his dad if they could trap some turkey in his back field where he fed the cattle in the winter and he gave then permission. between my hunting buddy and myself we knew by counting the flocks the previous fall there were just over 120 turkey in that area. the next spring you'd be overwhelmed to see any fresh turkey sign. his dad told him they come in about mid January and started feeding/baiting them and one evening late they come and stretched out nets. the next morning well before daylight they were back and when the turkey gathered the launched the nets, loaded them up and off they went. we're assuming they were trade stock for who knows what? I guess it's sorta like robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Predators, Habitat, weather trends, changing agriculture practices,
Quote from: Gooserbat on June 02, 2022, 10:07:03 AM
Predators, Habitat, weather trends, changing agriculture practices,
This,...(and add avian diseases, parasites, and probably other "unknowns"). All of it resulting in the fact that we are killing off more gobblers each spring than are being replaced through reproductive success,...or more precisely, reproductive failure. In addition, human turkey hunters have become much more numerous,...and we have become much more effective at killing turkeys due to the "manner and methods" that we now use to kill them.
Quote from: GobbleNut on June 02, 2022, 10:56:21 AM
In addition, human turkey hunters have become much more numerous,...and we have become much more effective at killing turkeys due to the "manner and methods" that we now use to kill them.
This is certainly a factor, and it is also much easier to accelerate though the learning curve on turkey hunting methods and skills with all the internet resources, youtube videos, and forum info. Another thing that has stuck in my mind was an email exchange I had with a former member of this forum a few years back. He sent me picture after picture of gobblers he had called up for other "hunters" after he had filled his own tags. There must have been a dozen or so. I don't know how widespread this sort of thing is, but it is certainly a multiplier on the number of gobblers killed.
I hunt NY Steuben and Allegany counties and I can tell you the numbers have been declining steadily for 8-10 years. It's sad the dec doesn't care about it. There even trying to open season for all day hunting. Bottom line in the decs eyes it's all about license sales making more money. I wonder how license sales will be when there isn't any turkeys to hunt. 2022 was by far the worst season ever since I started turkey hunting in 1986. What exactly is the NWTF's goal? Do they really care about the decline in turkey population?
Overall numbers are down here too. I heard good gobbling 2 days out of the 22 days I hunted. I saw a few birds but even then the gobbling was poor. We got lucky and made the most of our opportunities. Good shot opportunities are getting less and less. I hope its all a "cycle" and it comes back around.
we have certainly debated this topic a lot and I think we're still just throwing darts at a wall. There are a lot of good opinions and possibilities, but solutions are still evasive at best. I have about determined that it's a combination of many things all chipping away. It's predators, habitat, weather, human interference and more. I still am pretty solid on one position and that is that our presumed carrying capacity is way less for the current habitat then what many of us thought and this is a huge factor. After all the immense reintroduction efforts we saw a great boom in all our flocks and then things began to level out and develop a flat curve of a standing crop with periodic fluctuations. If this is the primary case we may just have to live with what we have. I do think there are things that can be done to push that curve upward, but it will take a very big effort across wide parameters, involving state, federal and private resources. My vote for the number one contributor to poor brood survival (or recruitment in technical terms ) is depredation by nest predators. Look back to when fur markets went bust and trapping/predator/raccoon hunting all declined and this slide started just a few years after that. The bleeding heart animal rights people feel like they won one, but many species of wildlife lost when they won their self proclaimed righteous victory. Raccoons over populated and there have been big outbreaks of distemper and rabies. Small game and birds of all types suffered disease and nest failures. I could go on, but I'm preaching to the council of Bishops, we all know this. They need to stay in their lane and run Hollywood and make movies, do talk shows, play politics in Washington and let the outdoors people fund the scientist and biologist that manage our resources. I wouldn't expect an Amish elder to know how to fly my jet plane and I don't know how to make a movie, so leave the wildlife to those who know.
I want to get some opinions on another POSSIBLE factor that I have noticed that could be contributing to lower Turkey numbers, especially in the big woods. I have noticed in NY and NJ over the past decade the woods has matured, gotten much thicker. Areas that used to be more open are no longer open. I am wondering if this is leading to more "ambush" of poults and even adults due to the denser forests. I know here in NJ, very little logging goes on, the woods just keeps getting denser over time. Just an observation, might not have merit, but I wanted to throw this out there.....
On the woods thickness observation I don't know - might make it easier for predator to get close for ambush and such - I live in Arkansas where timber industry is king and thick woods are common - we all keep coming back to a theme ... predators- along with human activity( harvest - timber/ ag practices) I hope we can get this downward trend turned around - I feel like Arkansas is about to cut state limit to one bird from 2 and several other states are following - maybe this will help some - I personally saw 9 busted eggs in the woods this spring all miles apart and from 3 different states.... tells me we are losing a ton in nest predation- I need to be trapping myself!! Great post here!
Quote from: Tom007 on June 02, 2022, 02:38:00 PM
I want to get some opinions on another POSSIBLE factor that I have noticed that could be contributing to lower Turkey numbers, especially in the big woods. I have noticed in NY and NJ over the past decade the woods has matured, gotten much thicker. Areas that used to be more open are no longer open. I am wondering if this is leading to more "ambush" of poults and even adults due to the denser forests. I know here in NJ, very little logging goes on, the woods just keeps getting denser over time. Just an observation, might not have merit, but I wanted to throw this out there.....
There are places where I think this could definitely hold true, Tom, but I think about the areas I hunt in South Carolina where they have a very active and successful prescribed fire schedule and man I hunt some gorgeous, gorgeous woods that don't have the birds they had just a few years ago.
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Quote from: Wigsplitter on June 02, 2022, 03:21:49 PM
On the woods thickness observation I don't know - might make it easier for predator to get close for ambush and such - I live in Arkansas where timber industry is king and thick woods are common - we all keep coming back to a theme ... predators- along with human activity( harvest - timber/ ag practices) I hope we can get this downward trend turned around - I feel like Arkansas is about to cut state limit to one bird from 2 and several other states are following - maybe this will help some - I personally saw 9 busted eggs in the woods this spring all miles apart and from 3 different states.... tells me we are losing a ton in nest predation- I need to be trapping myself!! Great post here!
Quote from: ChesterCopperpot on June 02, 2022, 03:29:04 PM
Quote from: Tom007 on June 02, 2022, 02:38:00 PM
I want to get some opinions on another POSSIBLE factor that I have noticed that could be contributing to lower Turkey numbers, especially in the big woods. I have noticed in NY and NJ over the past decade the woods has matured, gotten much thicker. Areas that used to be more open are no longer open. I am wondering if this is leading to more "ambush" of poults and even adults due to the denser forests. I know here in NJ, very little logging goes on, the woods just keeps getting denser over time. Just an observation, might not have merit, but I wanted to throw this out there.....
There are places where I think this could definitely hold true, Tom, but I think about the areas I hunt in South Carolina where they have a very active and successful prescribed fire schedule and man I hunt some gorgeous, gorgeous woods that don't have the birds they had just a few years ago.
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Thanks, great responses, it's probably a culmination of everything unfortunately...
Quote from: Tom007 on June 02, 2022, 03:42:10 PM
Thanks, great responses, it's probably a culmination of everything unfortunately...
There are folks on this site who for one reason or another don't like Mike Chamberlain, but regardless of their feelings he's spent more time contemplating and studying this than most any of us can claim and that's what he's said all along: it's not one thing; its the culmination of issues; it's death by a thousand cuts.
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The numbers seem to be declining in my part of WI as well. I wouldn't mind seeing less tags available if it's going to help them rebound.
Yes , there are more nest predators than ever , habitat gets less and less .
But we are over looking the most obvious!
OURSELVES!!!!
Quote from: Howie g on June 02, 2022, 04:38:15 PM
Yes , there are more nest predators than ever , habitat gets less and less .
But we are over looking the most obvious!
OURSELVES!!!!
Been a lot of people in this thread, including me, who have mentioned hunters (me personally believing we're the greatest impact). That to say, I don't think most the people engaging in this conversation are oblivious to that. The question that hasn't been raised is whether or not we're willing to face stricter regulation for the potential of a rebounded population?
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Quote from: ChesterCopperpot on June 02, 2022, 04:57:21 PM
Quote from: Howie g on June 02, 2022, 04:38:15 PM
Yes , there are more nest predators than ever , habitat gets less and less .
But we are over looking the most obvious!
OURSELVES!!!!
Been a lot of people in this thread, including me, who have mentioned hunters (me personally believing we're the greatest impact). That to say, I don't think most the people engaging in this conversation are oblivious to that. The question that hasn't been raised is whether or not we're willing to face stricter regulation for the potential of a rebounded population?
Your right Chester , I kinda miss worded what my meaning was .
The new regulations are coming , and WE are going to have to stick by them , and hold others accountable also .
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Also, what do we do when the science says we need greater regulation and the politicians who sign those regulations into law refuse on the grounds of, "We need the money more than we need the turkeys." I think in a lot of states we've perpetually sacrificed the biology for the sake of the budget.
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Quote from: Howie g on June 02, 2022, 04:38:15 PM
Yes , there are more nest predators than ever , habitat gets less and less .
But we are over looking the most obvious!
OURSELVES!!!!
I believe this is the majority of the problems.
Over Hunting
Nest predators no longer trapped for furs
Habitat loss
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I have said for some time it going come down to more regulations and those are going to either be cutting seasons/bag limits or restricting legal methods and equipment used for hunting. Personally I am hoping for the latter. Though I would be all for many of the methods used today for youth and handicapped hunters.
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Upland game bird cycle of population?
I hear 0 gunshots, are all the turkeys being killed by Xbows? No.
I heard 4 gunshots all season, 2 states. 3 of the shots were from guys setting over bait in Virginia, all three shots were from their one set.
If tightening of regulations and cutting bag limits would bring the population back, I am 100% for it. No questions there.....
I have hunted the same 650-acre WMU for years now. This year I hunted it 15 times and was unsuccessful. During April, you could hear multiple gobblers on the roost, then nothing after fly down. Once May hit, even the roost gobbling stopped. I heard one gobble during the entire month of May. Each day I was there, according to the sign in sheet at the gate there were another 4-5 hunters working the property as well. I ran into a few of them in the woods or parking lot and had the same experience. I heard no shots the entire season and nobody checked that they shot one on the sign-in sheet. Of course that doesn't really mean anything. There was a lot of sign in scratching so it was obvious they were there, just not vocal at all. Very strange as many have also mentioned. How do these animal collectively decide to shut up across their entire range? Nature is fascinating. I have noticed an overall drop in the population despite seeing the sign of them being there. Of course this is all antidotal and not scientific.
In my opinion, the increase predator population and number of hunters that joined the ranks during Covid have shut the remaining turkeys right up. I do think a lot of the new hunters will give it up over the next couple seasons due to loss of interest from getting back to normal and lack of success. Who knows though.
Well I'll say my peace on this once I usually stay out of it...Where are the turkeys you ask? Well we kill them..I really don't know what is so hard to understand on that.
Since some people just had to recruit more hunters because that's what we needed..right!! So take the thousands of those people,put them with the die hard guys..now go hop on what ever social media platform you use or want to.."if you don't god bless you!!!!"..Take a look at the amount of kids/youth killing birds now with the tss and 410..I'm all for the kids so don't take it that way..But these little rascals are stacking some birds and good for them...
But at the end of the day that's my out look on things change the seasons all you want and trap all you can because it will take years to get things back if they ever do come back
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wage war on the ground predators. I'm doing my part in my neck of the woods. I have quite an impressive bone yard and it's growing weekly. I have 3 hens here at my house daily and I'm just waiting to see the little ones so everything that's a threat to them is a target.
As far as the youth kill in WV you should look and study the numbers before commenting on them. There was a day added to that hunt making it a two day hunt recently. Keep that in your mind while calculating, there is no stacking.
A big issue in Illinois and other Midwest states is bush honey suckle is taking over! You get in that mess and there is nothing at turkey level!
No good, no nesting cover, just honey suckle and mature hardwood trees!
Farms I managed that had it had very few turkeys, farms without had birds generally speaking.
Spent a lot of hours cutting it down and spraying stumps with glyph, puts a hurt on it but you have to go back and deal with saplings in a couple years.
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Quote from: WV Flopper on June 02, 2022, 08:24:35 PM
As far as the youth kill in WV you should look and study the numbers before commenting on them. There was a day added to that hunt making it a two day hunt recently. Keep that in your mind while calculating, there is no stacking.
Are we to assume youth hunters don't hunt during the regular season? If that's the case than just using youth season numbers would be a good marker. If not, the numbers don't correlate to over all youth harvest.
We certainly don't need more hunters anywhere that I hunt in WI for turkeys or deer. We could use about 90% less.
I am thinking that perhaps there are just too many of us. Too many experienced Turkey Killers- myself included.
How many 3 + 4 year old Gobblers are there to hunt on your State's opening day compared to 20 years back?
I hunt NY + NJ. North Jersey has very few Turkeys. My area of NY just 15 miles to the North of the border has plenty of Turkeys.
Perhaps all States should open their Spring Seasons just a few days later to ensure that 3 + 4 year old Tom has had enough time to breed as many Hens as possible.
One Youth day is enough. States that have 2 Youth days need to cut that back to 1 Day. That Youth has all the regular Season to hunt.
Quote from: wchadw on June 02, 2022, 05:16:53 PM
Quote from: Howie g on June 02, 2022, 04:38:15 PM
Yes , there are more nest predators than ever , habitat gets less and less .
But we are over looking the most obvious!
OURSELVES!!!!
I believe this is the majority of the problems.
Over Hunting
Nest predators no longer trapped for furs
Habitat loss
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I agree 100%. I wouldnt mind at all if MS went down to a 2 bird limit and maybe start the season a couple of weeks later. Wouldnt hurt to try it for a couple of years. The same outlaws would still go over the limit but it should help.
Quote from: WV Flopper on June 02, 2022, 08:24:35 PM
As far as the youth kill in WV you should look and study the numbers before commenting on them. There was a day added to that hunt making it a two day hunt recently. Keep that in your mind while calculating, there is no stacking.
I travel always have and always will...not talking just WV..People come here once kill or not they usually never come back you know and I know why and I'll leave that...
I'm talking youth period states don't matter..Come to WV bring your fans,you walking boots,vest with built in water pouches and your fancy camera gear...Day 2 you leave that at the truck and leave your feelings in Alabama...
WV is one of the only few states that allow rifle..Never ever in a million years would I though I'm against cause I'm not and still not really..But it hit to close to home for me this year for personal reasons...But good for the state of WV,if you look into the regs rifles are not allowed for youth day...further more I don't need to look at the number because the numbers lie...first and foremost do you realize how many states don't require a call in or game check..all just let us know after season on our survey we send out...Ok well now look at the amount of those hunters we just had to recruit you think they give two cares....Nope because they ain't going back..so that goes in the trash...so now you have any state including Alaska with a number that could be off by a thousand plus or minus..Numbers lie the gov lies if you for one min believe any of the little pitty stuff that these states let alone WV does for a wild turkey well then..We know who you vote for in Nov
Old man once told me you wanna know your turkeys well you gotta lay with em..firm believer in that saying....I'm still trying to figure out where all these dead turkeys are that the predators kill..bones feathers meh don't see many and I don't know about you but the last time I check there is enough feathers on a turkey to make a pillow...would think if they are getting eating would be some feather blowing threw the woods..kinda makes sense if you don't think about it yea !?!?!
Timber Harvest is happening. (primarily the Southeastern states where the population declines have been most significant). Look at the lumber prices, this will only get worse not better. The habitat is gone, the carrying capacity cannot possibly be what it once was when the turkey population was booming.
Second to that is disease, there never was much diversity in the gene pool when turkeys were trapped and transplanted from one area to another.
1. Has the number of turkey hunters increased? Yes.
2. Has the number of predators (both nest predators as well as all others) increased? Yes.
3. Has the Habitat improved? No.
4. Do we have more ground to disperse/offset the number of new hunters? No.
5. Is reproduction adequate to meet increased harvest? No.
6. Have weather patterns been beneficial at a broad scale (exceptionally dry in the west and wet in the east)? No
The things we can control are predators to an extent, over-harvest (most don't want to embrace that), and a push for habitat improvement by individuals and groups/agencies that control the lands.
I agree 100% with Eggshell. Very wise and accurate post.
I was recently listening to a podcast. There was a gentlemen on there that said they put cameras on 228 ground nests in an area. This included grouse,Qual and turkey. The number of nests that survived from 228 was "0". Most where eaten by nest predators,skunk,possum and racoon. A few where taken by coyotes and a few of the hens also where taken by coyotes.
If this does not sound like a problem then nothing will.
Be interesting to see how many trapping licenses sell in your state compared to 20yrs ago when turkeys where booming.
Quote from: mikejd on June 03, 2022, 08:23:41 AM
I was recently listening to a podcast. There was a gentlemen on there that said they put cameras on 228 ground nests in an area. This included grouse,Qual and turkey. The number of nests that survived from 228 was "0". Most where eaten by nest predators,skunk,possum and racoon. A few where taken by coyotes and a few of the hens also where taken by coyotes.
If this does not sound like a problem then nothing will.
Be interesting to see how many trapping licenses sell in your state compared to 20yrs ago when turkeys where booming.
Wow, this is scary....
I live in North Georgia. Have been hunting turkeys for well over thirty years and still have a lot to learn. That said, smart or not, it is clear in our state it is four major things that have hurt our turkey hunting.
Predators - Man - Chicken litter on pastures - and fourth and last "TIMING" of controlled burns.
I am not so worried about predators killing too many adult turkeys, but man the evidence of them destroying nests is very abundant. I am finding the most evidence ever of that in recent years.
Man is a problem - as we are ever taking more habitat just to have a place work and to sleep, but things like TSS have changed the landscape in huge ways. I hear almost weekly during the season about guys killing birds at 60-80 yards (which is crazy anyway). Used to be that just was not happening with the old Winchester XX or Federal Premium, etc. that you just hoped would kill a bird at 40 yards. I remember those days. I know, I know, the choke industry has changed and now even the XX loads will reach out further. But Chester is right, man is a big factor.
No doubt the chicken litter on pastures is killing turkeys. They are supposedly gathering evidence to say just how big of a factor that is.
Controlled burns are very beneficial, but the TIMING of them can be very detrimental. Burning during the heart of the nesting season is not a good idea in my estimation any way you figure it. Why not start in late December and wrap it up by late February instead of burning when the majority of nesting is occurring?
We are seeing more coyotes than ever. On one of my last hunts of the year I had a coyote charge a decoy. Unfortunately he veered off at the last second and by the time I got the gun up he was 60 yards away and on the run.
Wildlife is behind the eight ball because of a lack of leadership in today's America. Just this week, our President stated that a 9mm is a high powered caliber. My point, we have too many folks in leadership making decisions about things they know little to nothing about. So don't expect them to make a lot of changes to really help the turkeys out. Guys like MC are good guys, but I wonder if there are enough of those type guys left to move the needle as you are hoping to see.
I also remember the days when if you saw a game warden, he was dirty and sweating. They used to only use the truck to get to a spot to bust their butt to do some work to improve the forest. I realize that there are still some good ones out there, so please don't take offense, and I also realize that they are often understaffed these days due to the lack of leadership I mentioned above - but that said today most game wardens work from their quad cab truck and the most used tool they have is a stainless steel cup to hold their coffee. To be fair to those guys, they are likely just taking marching orders from the lack of leadership guys who are above their head who desire to see little done to help the wildlife and especially to make sure the hunter is not helped in anyway. Trust me, it is a small percentage of our government (state level/or national level) who desires to help the hunter in anyway. So don't expect them to do many great things to help the turkey or those hunting them.
From what I understand the reason they burn during the growing season is that's when it has the most impact to the woody invasives that are not conducive to good nesting and brood rearing habitat. Burning during the dormant season does little control these invasives. Studies have shown on lands with burning schedules by the time it's ready to burn the hens aren't using the habitat because it's not very good. There maybe some short term detrimental effect but the long term effects far out way it.
Studies have have also shown the size of the burn is more relevant. After a burn get over a certain acreage, don't remember the exact number but it's in the thousands, it will start to have an impact. So I think it's not timing we should be concerned with but the actual size of the burn. My guess is because what habitat that's good for brood rearing and nesting gets incapsulated in these larger burns.
A lot of good theories and I agree with a lot of them.
But, what I saw happen on a 10K acre quail plantation was in no way a gradual thing. It happened from one season to the next, huge population down, I would guess 85-90%, and the following year, we left our hunt a few days early because we found 0 sign of any type of turkey.
This plantation is managed for quail. It is burned yearly in sections before the nesting season, predator control is top notch, plenty of everything a bird needs and wild quail are thriving.
Something happened to the hens and without hens, there are no gobblers being born.
It is not just that plantation, we used to see flocks of turkeys anytime we would ride the surrounding areas, almost every big AG field,creek bottom and hardwood areas had birds everywhere. Then, they disappeared from all of these areas almost overnight.
I hunted there this year and the population is SLOWLY coming back, but the hens are still not back in the big flocks.
The rest of the areas of GA that I hunt have only seen a slight decrease in birds, my primary hunting club still has a decent flock and another area that I hunt has a stable flock. But, as far the area in middle GA where the big plantation is located, something killed the hens and the only difference that I saw was when the heavy use of manure came back into the scene.
There is some science behind the timing of controlled burns, burning earlier or later does no promote growth of plants beneficial to turkeys. Burning at the time of nesting does promote growth of the important plants beneficial to the birds.
I do not know all of the details but I have read that the few nests destroyed by fire are worth the sacrifice for the overall habitat. Chamberlain discusses this very topic, I do not know the correct answer but I would think he has the studies to back it up.
It is becoming evident that the nest predators is one of the major factors currently. I do not recall the numbers but DU or Delta did a study on duck nests in the same region, one area was heavily trapped and one was not at all, the nest success was drastically better on the trapped marsh, one of those common sense things but hard data is good to have!
Years ago in central IL. coons got distemper and were wiped out, the turkey hunting over the following 10 or so years was incredible!
Quote from: Dtrkyman on June 03, 2022, 11:32:13 AM
It is becoming evident that the nest predators is one of the major factors currently. I do not recall the numbers but DU or Delta did a study on duck nests in the same region, one area was heavily trapped and one was not at all, the nest success was drastically better on the trapped marsh, one of those common sense things but hard data is good to have!
Years ago in central IL. coons got distemper and were wiped out, the turkey hunting over the following 10 or so years was incredible!
This is a quote from Sam Zeveloff- A zoologist. Important to note he's not saying the raccoon population has grown by 15-20%, he's saying it's increased 15-20 fold (which has continued to increase since the 1980's) :
"Zeveloff says the North American raccoon population is estimated to have swelled 15 to 20 times between the 1930s and 1980s. Since then, it has continued to grow as more raccoons colonize not only cities and suburbs but deserts and mountainous areas, where they were once rare."
It's just common sense that the higher the density of predators (nest predators in this case), the lower the chances of survival are on prey.
For example - If you have an easter egg hunt in a 1 acre field, hide 10 eggs, and send a kid out to find those eggs, they might come back with 50-60% of them (depending how well you hid them and how good the kid is at looking). If you hide the same 10 eggs in the same field and send 10 kids out to find them, what are the chances many eggs don't get picked up? Point being, we're seeing more predators out hunting the eggs, per acre/square mile etc, and less eggs hidden in the field to find but, on this egg hunt, we can't go place more eggs in the field to go around but we can sure do our parts to reduce the participants in the egg hunt...
You will hear biologist hint at predator control, and even some of the bigger hunting public figures/corporations etc. but in this climate with PETA lunatics around every corner, a society that largely doesn't like or understand hunting and trapping, you aren't going to hear many people just come out and say that we need to take out predators. They'll say we need to reduce bag limits on hunters (we're predators also) because that's more palatable to the general public, and improve habitat (again, more palatable) but you won't hear much on the trapping from a lot of these people because they can't afford to take that stand. Habitat and hunting definitely contribute to population but 70-80+ % of all turkey are being killed in the egg by nest predators (that's one of the few areas of turkey biology that is pretty well agreed on by everyone). Of the eggs that hatch, only 33% of those poults survive to become juveniles.
The reality is that if we as turkey hunters (along with quail, and waterfowl hunters) decided to start trapping and making it a priority to reduce the predator population - specifically in the months leading up to nesting season, we'd see higher nest and poult survival, which is the bottleneck behind population decline. Hell, if half of the guys that are willing to go to the woods to go shoot turkey would also decide to pick up a trap before the season, it would put a dent in the population but most won't - they'll type about it on a forum or post about it on a facebook group. I hope that's a personal challenge to a lot of the people reading this to get up and do your part.
Quote from: redleg06 on June 03, 2022, 12:50:03 PM
Quote from: Dtrkyman on June 03, 2022, 11:32:13 AM
It is becoming evident that the nest predators is one of the major factors currently. I do not recall the numbers but DU or Delta did a study on duck nests in the same region, one area was heavily trapped and one was not at all, the nest success was drastically better on the trapped marsh, one of those common sense things but hard data is good to have!
Years ago in central IL. coons got distemper and were wiped out, the turkey hunting over the following 10 or so years was incredible!
This is a quote from Sam Zeveloff- A zoologist. Important to note he's not saying the raccoon population has grown by 15-20%, he's saying it's increased 15-20 fold (which has continued to increase since the 1980's) :
"Zeveloff says the North American raccoon population is estimated to have swelled 15 to 20 times between the 1930s and 1980s. Since then, it has continued to grow as more raccoons colonize not only cities and suburbs but deserts and mountainous areas, where they were once rare."
It's just common sense that the higher the density of predators (nest predators in this case), the lower the chances of survival are on prey.
For example - If you have an easter egg hunt in a 1 acre field, hide 10 eggs, and send a kid out to find those eggs, they might come back with 50-60% of them (depending how well you hid them and how good the kid is at looking). If you hide the same 10 eggs in the same field and send 10 kids out to find them, what are the chances many eggs don't get picked up? Point being, we're seeing more predators out hunting the eggs, per acre/square mile etc, and less eggs hidden in the field to find but, on this egg hunt, we can't go place more eggs in the field to go around but we can sure do our parts to reduce the participants in the egg hunt...
You will hear biologist hint at predator control, and even some of the bigger hunting public figures/corporations etc. but in this climate with PETA lunatics around every corner, a society that largely doesn't like or understand hunting and trapping, you aren't going to hear many people just come out and say that we need to take out predators. They'll say we need to reduce bag limits on hunters (we're predators also) because that's more palatable to the general public, and improve habitat (again, more palatable) but you won't hear much on the trapping from a lot of these people because they can't afford to take that stand. Habitat and hunting definitely contribute to population but 70-80+ % of all turkey are being killed in the egg by nest predators (that's one of the few areas of turkey biology that is pretty well agreed on by everyone). Of the eggs that hatch, only 33% of those poults survive to become juveniles.
The reality is that if we as turkey hunters (along with quail, and waterfowl hunters) decided to start trapping and making it a priority to reduce the predator population - specifically in the months leading up to nesting season, we'd see higher nest and poult survival, which is the bottleneck behind population decline. Hell, if half of the guys that are willing to go to the woods to go shoot turkey would also decide to pick up a trap before the season, it would put a dent in the population but most won't - they'll type about it on a forum or post about it on a facebook group. I hope that's a personal challenge to a lot of the people reading this to get up and do your part.
That's a pretty good analogy and I would tend to agree with it. The question I have is why aren't we seeing turkey numbers drop across the board? Why does it only affect certain areas of the country and not others?
I agree, raccoons are public enemy number 1 in the woods and fields. I am guilty as all heck. Back in the 70s, 80s and early 90s I ran a trap line and I was once a professional grader/partner in a fur auction company. Then the market went bust and we disbanded the company and I hung up my traps. I would work hard to catch 50 raccoons in several miles of trapline a year. Now I can catch 15 to 20 around my garden and barn. On the farm if a raccoon got into the chickens he'd kill several chicken and destroy all the eggs over a couple nights before you caught him. Just think what is happening with the density we have now.
Quote from: Paulmyr on June 03, 2022, 01:34:03 PM
Quote from: redleg06 on June 03, 2022, 12:50:03 PM
Quote from: Dtrkyman on June 03, 2022, 11:32:13 AM
It is becoming evident that the nest predators is one of the major factors currently. I do not recall the numbers but DU or Delta did a study on duck nests in the same region, one area was heavily trapped and one was not at all, the nest success was drastically better on the trapped marsh, one of those common sense things but hard data is good to have!
Years ago in central IL. coons got distemper and were wiped out, the turkey hunting over the following 10 or so years was incredible!
This is a quote from Sam Zeveloff- A zoologist. Important to note he's not saying the raccoon population has grown by 15-20%, he's saying it's increased 15-20 fold (which has continued to increase since the 1980's) :
"Zeveloff says the North American raccoon population is estimated to have swelled 15 to 20 times between the 1930s and 1980s. Since then, it has continued to grow as more raccoons colonize not only cities and suburbs but deserts and mountainous areas, where they were once rare."
It's just common sense that the higher the density of predators (nest predators in this case), the lower the chances of survival are on prey.
For example - If you have an easter egg hunt in a 1 acre field, hide 10 eggs, and send a kid out to find those eggs, they might come back with 50-60% of them (depending how well you hid them and how good the kid is at looking). If you hide the same 10 eggs in the same field and send 10 kids out to find them, what are the chances many eggs don't get picked up? Point being, we're seeing more predators out hunting the eggs, per acre/square mile etc, and less eggs hidden in the field to find but, on this egg hunt, we can't go place more eggs in the field to go around but we can sure do our parts to reduce the participants in the egg hunt...
You will hear biologist hint at predator control, and even some of the bigger hunting public figures/corporations etc. but in this climate with PETA lunatics around every corner, a society that largely doesn't like or understand hunting and trapping, you aren't going to hear many people just come out and say that we need to take out predators. They'll say we need to reduce bag limits on hunters (we're predators also) because that's more palatable to the general public, and improve habitat (again, more palatable) but you won't hear much on the trapping from a lot of these people because they can't afford to take that stand. Habitat and hunting definitely contribute to population but 70-80+ % of all turkey are being killed in the egg by nest predators (that's one of the few areas of turkey biology that is pretty well agreed on by everyone). Of the eggs that hatch, only 33% of those poults survive to become juveniles.
The reality is that if we as turkey hunters (along with quail, and waterfowl hunters) decided to start trapping and making it a priority to reduce the predator population - specifically in the months leading up to nesting season, we'd see higher nest and poult survival, which is the bottleneck behind population decline. Hell, if half of the guys that are willing to go to the woods to go shoot turkey would also decide to pick up a trap before the season, it would put a dent in the population but most won't - they'll type about it on a forum or post about it on a facebook group. I hope that's a personal challenge to a lot of the people reading this to get up and do your part.
That's a pretty good analogy and I would tend to agree with it. The question I have is why aren't we seeing turkey numbers drop across the board? Why does it only affect certain areas of the country and not others?
I don't know that there are many places around the country that are seeing expanding populations. Definitely some that are more stable than others but I think most areas have seen numbers going the wrong direction.
This is purely theory but it makes sense to me- Like the analogy I gave with the easter egg hunt- If you have 10 eggs and 10 predators, and they get 80% of the eggs then you have 2 eggs leftover to carry the population going in to next year...and that's a razor this margin for error when you account for hunter pressure, natural mortality, weather, burning, farming practices, other predators, etc. on top of everything else. But, if you have 100 eggs and the 10 predators still got 80% of them, then you have 20 eggs leftover going in to next year. Meaning, when you have a bigger number to start with, since the survivors breed and multiply, the felt impact isn't as large when an equal percentage is taken out of the population on a given year (it is when you have multiple years of bad production and high mortality like Oklahoma and parts of Kansas, due to extensive drought and hunting). I believe it's why you've seen the wildlife agencies go to the "super stocking" method for introducing/re-establishing turkey in an area - Basically they now transplant about 100 turkey into a large tract together vs the old methods of doing 12-15 scattered more sporadically.
Quote from: eggshell on June 03, 2022, 03:05:40 PM
I agree, raccoons are public enemy number 1 in the woods and fields. I am guilty as all heck. Back in the 70s, 80s and early 90s I ran a trap line and I was once a professional grader/partner in a fur auction company. Then the market went bust and we disbanded the company and I hung up my traps. I would work hard to catch 50 raccoons in several miles of trapline a year. Now I can catch 15 to 20 around my garden and barn. On the farm if a raccoon got into the chickens he'd kill several chicken and destroy all the eggs over a couple nights before you caught him. Just think what is happening with the density we have now.
Yep- I was tent camping/hunting in the midwest this year and was absolutely surrounded by them every night I was there. You absolutely couldn't leave food open, in or out of the tent, or they would 100% find it. I just remember thinking, if there was a turkey nest out there in the woods, no chance it made it. There were just too many of them bouncing around searching.
I used to be really into waterfowl hunting/dog training and had a good lab. I used to be amazed how he could get within 30-50 yds of a specific duck we had shot and swim or run right to it once he smelled it...keep in mind, these weren't ones he had seen, or out in the open field of view, and there may have been 100's of other ducks (all putting out scent) walking or swimming that same ground minutes or hours earlier, but somehow he could smell his way right to that duck. Anyone that's ever worked bird dogs, deer tracking dogs, etc. should have an idea how effective these animals/predators are at finding prey...well, turkey smell and I'm sure concentrated areas like nest smell that much more. Once nest predators have keyed in on a particular type of prey, they become very efficient at seeking them out. It's hard enough for prey to hide from a few predators but nearly impossible when the predator population density explodes.
Nest predation is the elephant in the room. It's also the hardest to control. That's why it's all but ignored by most states dnr and the experts. The drop in nest success correlates directly with falling fur prices.
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 04, 2022, 08:19:40 PM
Nest predation is the elephant in the room. It's also the hardest to control. That's why it's all but ignored by most states dnr and the experts. The drop in nest success correlates directly with falling fur prices.
It also correlates in the rise in turkey hunter numbers and the addition of new techniques/ equipment used to harvest them. Pick your poison.
Poor nest success is the common denominator in most of the latest studies..... predators are a major problem. However they are much harder control than the two legged variety.
I have thought of this for a bit and thought I would share. Not to argue, but for all to think as a group. I do believe turkey population dynamics are effected differently in different regions of the country , state, even county. =Not one answer.
I live in Hardy county West Virginia. It has been heralded as the Poultry Capitol of West Virginia "By Hardy County", regardless, as long as I have lived in this county poultry has been King and still is. It has shifted from the normal processing to "Organic, LOL" but Poultry is still king. In February turkeys start making their selves visible in the river bottoms. Some large flocks..... many Toms strutting around for several weeks. When the farmers scatter chicken manure they leave the fields if they didn't exist. They don't like it! This usually takes place in early April.
The next spring the flocks are back in the river bottoms, just like last year. The flocks have gotten smaller from the 90's, no doubt about that. You don't see 20 Toms strutting in those fields anymore, its more like 10. I will note I did see 19 Jakes this spring in a field after manure was spread, Jakes=Dumb. Maybe there is something in the manure, read on.
This has been going on sense I moved here in 1993. That's 29 years ago. This cycle has been observed by me every year. I do understand that commercial farms can and do transmit disease, not arguing that. But that is not the blame, it is as it has been, nothing different, here. "Unless a new undocumented disease is present."
I am VERY fortunate to be able to hunt good ground that covers 75 miles East to West per OnX, straight line of course. The East ground in suburbs of Winchester Virginia. The west ground is Tucker county West Virginia. Going from 600 feet elevation to 3300 elevation East to West. The Suburbs have no ag or trapping to tell. Matter of fact, seen more foxes in Winchester Virginia than anywhere in my life. My home area is heavy private ag ground. But there is some hobby trapping that takes place. Nothing IMO to make a difference in the predator populations.
The Western ground is funny and contrary to a lot noted here in this post. I have trapped there, yearly up to three years ago, I trapped there for a solid 10 years and kept a log. Amazingly, I averaged 1 coon a year, .1 possum a year, 0 skunks a year. So if you missed the . point, 1 possum in 10 years, it was an amazing catch by a partner "Hampshire county Possum King". I couldn't believe it. And 0 skunks in 10 years! They dont have any snakes up there either to speak of. They do have an abundance of crows and ravens! We caught coyotes, fox, and a couple bobcats, mainly coyotes by far. There is 0 ag in this area! Matter of fact I heard a bull this spring in Maryland, he had to have been at a minimum of 3 miles away.
These three areas have different turkey population dynamics. They are not the same and can not be treated the same, One State regulation to cover this amount of ground is not fair to the individuals that live and hunt it, or the wildlife that call it home. Even though it is two different states, its not that much ground overall.
Three seasons ago I was disappointed when our state changed our start and stop date, they moved them both up one week. Which, where I hunt "West" means you lost one of the best weeks. You lost a week when the majority of the hens were breed and mature Toms were looking for a girl. They only did this due to PUBLIC opinion, not Biology. Now, with the PUBLIC crying "Me Too" they added back the last week. SO, what was a four week season is now a five week season, soon to change I would expect. But that wasn't done through Biology, it was done through Politics and public opinion.
So, if you have taken the time to read this you are thinking it makes 0 sense. I agree! It's not 1 answer, its not one problem, not all regions are the same and shouldn't be treated the same! Problem is we don't have enough Biologist to answer all of these region specific problems. None of the issues I bring up mention weather, over harvest, mortality whether natural or man. They too play into the issue, I am not limiting them out and don't mean too.
If you are hell bent on the nesting predators being the problem go to Minnesota Trapline Products and purchase some dogproof traps. You can set up a dozen of these for under 300$ and kill some coons. All you will need is a anchoring system, I prefer chaining them off to a tree and some marshmallows with scent. You can use Anise or Vanilla as scent and probably kill all the coons you care to kill. Jack Mackerel works great too!
I will add...trapping coons in a dog proof is not like the normal stigma of predator trapping. It to me is the lazy man's trapping, as long as you don't smear you dog proof in grease, diesel, or gas your good to go. Bait it and set it and your in business, that easy.
Maybe even you'll enjoy it and move up to fox and coyotes, it is fun and educational.
I agree its death by 1000 cuts. Predators (both 2 and 4 leg), habitat, weather, etc. Another interesting aspect has been some research on grasshoppers disappearing from the tallgrass prairie. They have noticed a drastic decline even though the grass is growing larger. Of course turkeys use grasshoppers as a source of protein. Could it be possible that even if they hatch there are not enough insects to go around? Lots of new research going on can hopefully point us in some direction to stop the freefall.
I've had a biologist to my place several times. I've undertaken habitat projects to increase the success of ground nesting birds. I've taken to trapping and calling predators (if you have never called racoons it is a hoot), prescribed fire has been reintroduced, I've planted bird specific food plots, etc. I've seen the quail respond but yet to see the turkeys do the same.
I've also seen people say that it seems turkeys gobble less now for the most part. I think as a whole we have removed alot of the hard gobbling genetics. If a bird makes a noise especially on public they die. So the quiet birds get a better chance to live and pass on their genetics.
This was meant as response to certain post but a few of you have made some pretty good post since I've been writing it. I'll just leave it lay on its own.
I wouldn't expect much population increase in areas that have had high turkey densities over the past 20 years or so. The land can carry only so many. I would assume predator concentrations have increased across the country to due to lack of trapping/hunting over the last 20 years with the crash of the fur market. One thing that has also happened in these areas during this time period or longer is the number of people hunting turkeys, most visibly in destination states that attract traveling hunters. From what I'm hearing its mostly destination states that sell unlimited tags that have seen these drastic drops in turkey numbers. Blaming these drastic drops strictly on predators falls short in my belief. Raccoons seem to take most of the blame but from what I understand good nesting and brood rearing habitat just don't coincide with typical raccoon feeding areas. Possums you say. Here in my home state possums we're nonexistent. In the 1990's I started to see road kill possums. When I trapped for a few years in the mid 2000's possums beat skunks on the tally board. Can't remember now the last time I seen a possum road kill. Through out all this turkey numbers expanded throughout the state.
Another point I'd like to make is before colonization of the United States the estimated turkey population was around 10 million turkeys compared to the 6 million or so we have today. Are we to beleive turkey predators didn't exist back then? What caused the drop after colonization through the early 1900's has been over hunting and the degradation of habitat through mass logging. It nearly led to the extinction of the wild turkey. The habitat has rebounded for the most part in areas that don't have urban sprawl.
On the logging note. I hunt 2 areas of the country in Northern parts of the country that have significant logging activity. One area of a state has a newly established turkey population that has expanded from the more traditional areas within the state. This expansion coincided with the rise in predators due to lack of trapping. The logging in this area is usually large clear cuts in mature forest. It has a moderate population of turkeys that is spread out. Since about the late 2000's I've been able to hunt in this area. From what I've experienced in the last 15 years or so is turkey populations fluctuate according to the severity of the winters in this area. Mainly long periods of frigid temperatures. Hunting pressure is pretty light. It's been increasing but still fairly light.
The other area I hunt the logging is extensive but the cuts are on a smaller scale and seem to be managed for game. What I mean by this is instead of clear cutting large tracts of forest in one fell swoop the logging takes place over a period of years where smaller tracts are cut. There's a series of different growth stages through out the area instead of mature forest with one stage of new growth. The section of this state I hunt has a good population of turkeys. The hunting pressure is managed by limiting the number of tags sold according to turkey population densities within areas of the state. From what I can tell predator numbers are high.
I've hunted states in the southern part of the country as well. One state was before and after the boom in turkey populations. I hunted one area of this state over a period of about a dozen years with lengthy stays each year. The hunting was good before and way better when I returned 2 years ago. Did not hunt it during the peak where limits were increased by one bird and from what I could tell the peak is still happening in this part of the state. The hunting pressure was about the same. One thing I did notice is gates that used to be closed were now open making access easier and controlled burns seemed to be the norm where they were non existent before. Logging on this stretch of forest seems to be about the same. When I asked the guy I knew who lived and hunted there most of his adult life if he thought the population was in decline his answer was "take look, I got 5 gobblers hanging around my yard" than he smirked. Since that hunt the season dates have been moved, regulations changed and the limit was dropped by one bird due to declines in other parts of the state.
The other state I hunted in the south was also before and after the decline. It used to be a destination state. Only hunted this state 2 trips for a total of about 10 days so I can't really say to much about it. I was on turkeys most of the time. I didn't seem to any better or any worse than most places I hunted up until that point except the last state I'm going to talk about.
This state was a destination state in the middle of the country. My 1st mourning there I sat in field a listened the Ridgeline before me come alive with gobblers. First one, than 2, the gobblers that followed simply amazed me. This small WMA erupted in what I would guess to be more than 20 gobblers. It was impossible to count them all there was so much gobbling.
This 1000 acre piece of public land simply got hammered by hunters. Tents were at every parking area with 4 or 5 guys each. Other places in this part of the state seemed to get about as much attention. The fall was rapid from this peak. Consecutive years of record wet springs and a spring freeze during the nesting period decimated the population. Before this happened I remember the decline of gobblers on this little slice of public hunting heaven. The following years the gobblers slowly declined. There were plenty of hens. The place was awash in them. Gobblers however became fewer and fewer every year. By the time of the of the crash from bad weather I stopped going. I've returned to this place once a couple years ago and it hasn't seemed to recover. The only gobbler I heard off in the distance the one mourning I hunted sounded like it was shot. Moved my attention to a different area and found good gobbler numbers. Not the 1st mourning extravaganza I heard years before but it had a good population. The area has a schedule of burns that take place early in spring. They even post notices at entry points before the burns happen. I did not notice any burning activity when I hunted before the crash.
My observations are anecdotal for sure. The point in all of this rambling is to pick one culprit in the fall of turkey populations in areas across the country would be a disservice. Blanket statements and regulations need more thought. The question needs to be asked. Why are populations falling in some areas across the country and not others? If the answer is predators than why are they more lethal in different areas. Has the habitat in these areas shifted to a more predator friendly environment? I've heard this theory and feel it has merit. I've also heard other theories that seem very likely as well. One thing I know for sure is the common denominator during the crash in populations after colonization through the early 1900's and the recent down turns in certain areas was the increasing presence of human activity whether it be hunting or non hunting related.
Quote from: Paulmyr on June 04, 2022, 10:11:09 PM
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 04, 2022, 08:19:40 PM
Nest predation is the elephant in the room. It's also the hardest to control. That's why it's all but ignored by most states dnr and the experts. The drop in nest success correlates directly with falling fur prices.
It also correlates in the rise in turkey hunter numbers and the addition of new techniques/ equipment used to harvest them. Pick your poison.
I will disagree a little where I hunt there are almost no turkey hunters so hunting pressure is not part of the equasian I have seen turkey hunters numbers almost vanish over the last 20 yrs yet I have a racoon running in front of the truck daily.
In Florida we started to experience this trend 15 years ago ...trust me it gets worse ! We only killed 500 gobblers STATE WIDE on public type 2 wmas last year! Half of those were hybrids or eastens....sure plenty more were killed on private...but private land is disappearing fast due to land development....in 30 years time all that will be left will be public wmas and by that time I presume the tree huggers will have the Osceola on threatened or endangered list ...hear me now believe me later ...
If the rest of the country doesn't take steps to address the problems then they will end up like Florida in due time
Quote from: mikejd on June 05, 2022, 09:56:04 AM
Quote from: Paulmyr on June 04, 2022, 10:11:09 PM
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 04, 2022, 08:19:40 PM
Nest predation is the elephant in the room. It's also the hardest to control. That's why it's all but ignored by most states dnr and the experts. The drop in nest success correlates directly with falling fur prices.
It also correlates in the rise in turkey hunter numbers and the addition of new techniques/ equipment used to harvest them. Pick your poison.
I will disagree a little where I hunt there are almost no turkey hunters so hunting pressure is not part of the equasian I have seen turkey hunters numbers almost vanish over the last 20 yrs yet I have a racoon running in front of the truck daily.
Everybody is correct here. The basic problem is stable, long-term reproductive success. If you have that (which it appears a lot of places are not), the "human hunting" issue becomes moot, assuming sound management decisions about season timing, length, and bag limits are made (also questionable in some places).
However, if that "stable, long-term reproductive success" is not occurring, the human hunting element most certainly becomes an important consideration in the viability of any turkey population. Ultimately, both factors go hand in hand.
Very informative, great response info here. I want to say that the areas I hunt have had less hunters/pressure the past few years. Even during COVID, I did not see an increase in people in the woods, and did not see parked vehicles. My biggest observation has been that the woods I hunt has changed, gotten way thicker/denser. I have had predators come in to my call more frequently. On logging roads where I used to see Turkey tracks, I now see raccoon, coyote, and bear prints. Could the thicker cover make it easier for predators to ambush Turkeys? Have the gobblers learned that gobbling leads to ambush, so have they migrated towards less spring focalization? Years ago, Jake's came in screaming, now, they sneak in quietly. I sit and ponder all these thoughts with concern. What I have decided to do is step up my predator hunting. If I can take out some of these nest raiders, I will. That is something in my direct control, so I will take advantage of this. I only wish the Turkey nest raiders would shift to nailing goose nests, lord knows we have an over-abundance of these birds....they are crazy out of control.
Quote from: Tom007 on June 05, 2022, 01:19:27 PM
I only wish the Turkey nest raiders would shift to nailing goose nests, lord knows we have an over-abundance of these birds....they are crazy out of control.
Great comment,...and hadn't thought about that. It brings up another good question: In areas where they both nest, why is it that geese seem to be successful in keeping nest predators at bay and turkeys are not? I would assume it is a function of the fact that goose parents both guard the nest and they are aggressive defenders of their nests and young,...while turkeys do not do either.
...Maybe we should start a program of replacing goose eggs in nests with turkey eggs and see what happens... ??? :)
Quote from: GobbleNut on June 05, 2022, 02:05:08 PM
Quote from: Tom007 on June 05, 2022, 01:19:27 PM
I only wish the Turkey nest raiders would shift to nailing goose nests, lord knows we have an over-abundance of these birds....they are crazy out of control.
Great comment,...and hadn't thought about that. It brings up another good question: In areas where they both nest, why is it that geese seem to be successful in keeping nest predators at bay and turkeys are not? I would assume it is a function of the fact that goose parents both guard the nest and they are aggressive defenders of their nests and young,...while turkeys do not do either.
...Maybe we should start a program of replacing goose eggs in nests with turkey eggs and see what happens... ??? :)
Yeah, walk up on a turkey nest and she will run away without a second thought. Do that to a goose, and you're likely to become the attacked instead of the attacker.