4/16 -- Why is it Magic

[shaman]

A couple of years ago, I started a turkey log.  I'd done something similar for deer camp years ago and then lost the file during the divorce. A while back I reconstituted it;  I'd found a source of archive weather information so that I could find out temp, bar, wind speed, etc for any date.  After that, I kept it up to date and over time I was able to mine significant data from it.  The turkey log was not nearly as profitable.  It all seemed pretty random, and after filling in the weather info, it became even more mysterious. 

I had the turkey log out this AM to check on something. and it hit me:  the 16th of April is my hottest day.  I've got 4 gobblers on that day. 2 on the 4/18 and 2 on 4/19.  The rest all have one or none.  I'll be deuced as to why this is.  Here in KY, the modern season starts on the Saturday closest to the 15th. That means the Opener may be as early as the 12th. This year Saturday is on the 18th-- a late start.  I usually take a week off and hunt that whole first week. 

Sometimes the 16th has been the Opener. Some years it comes before the Opener.  It's all kind of jumbled, but one thing is certain: from the 16th to the 19th, I either bag a bird, or I'm probably not going to fill both my tags.

[Tail Feathers]

I don't keep a log, but based on observations and memory, I've always said if I had one day to hunt in my local woods, it would be April 12.
Our season opens April 22.

[Happy]

Interesting observations. I used to think that there were "hot" days as well. After a few years of this game I have come to the conclusion that there are to many factors to make a day or time period more fruitful than others. Factors such as weather, gobbler population, hen population and hunting pressure to name a few. I dont keep notes but I have found that my skills are spread throughout the season. However I have found that it I do find a gobbler in certain areas or behaving in a certain way I can pretty well call my shot.
Just last year pedro and I caught a certain gobbler in a specific spot and I just grinned as we were setting up and told him in 10 minutes he was gonna be toting him out. I dont think it took that long. However I do believe confidence goes a long way and if someone has a hot date or dates then they will hunt harder and ultimately be more successful. I think it is the ability to turn the hand you are delt into a winning hand has more to do with success than a date.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[kyturkeyhunter4]

I find that very interesting I never did a turkey log but I do one for deer hunting and I've had similar success on the deer log. Might start doing for for turkey this year I also do a lot of bass fishing in tournaments and I do a log and I've found some days are better than others on it to

[LaLongbeard]

I have kept a complete list of every Turkey hunt in every state since I started. I think if you keep records long enough you will notice patterns etc. But I think sometimes it's just random streaks that come and go. For example from 2012 until 2016 I killed a Gobbler on opening day in the same spot 2 of them sitting under the same tree the others were in sight of this tree. Public land a lot of pressure. The place looked no different than a 100 other places and after the opening day kill it was over in that spot. Streak is over now and nothing I can tell has changed. I don't know what it was about that particular area or why it was so hot opening day and not after, or more importantly why it isn't anymore.
     I had a similar streak with Thanksgiving day and deer from 1999 until 2003 or so I killed a buck on Thanksgiving morning by 9am every year 5 years in a row, different places even different states. I haven't killed one on Thanksgiving since 2003, but I pretty much quit deer hunting in 2018 so not likely to repeat the streak with deer.
         

[SinGin]

April 24 seems to be my lucky day. Almost nothing will keep me out of the woods on that day.

[Slick_trick]

Mine is April 10. I've killed alot gobblers on April 10. I make
A point to go that day if possible.

[Dtrkyman]

Have never kept records, I do believe there are "hot" days due to weather.

Last year on the second week in Missouri myself and several guys had a slow couple days, third morning three of us killed hit birds, taking pics at camp and a friend hunting in the same general area killed as well.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shaman]

For those of you interested. . .

Here is the methods I used to construct my deer log.  The process is the same with the turkey log.

http://genesis9.angzva.com/?p=2281

I'd done a deer log back in the 90's and then lost it in a messy divorce.  I waited until 2012 to try again.  By then it was up to memory to reconstruct the date/time of everything I'd taken.   Some time after 2012, I found that KY's telecheck system was keeping track of every one of my kills online.  For the turkey log, I just went on telecheck and got exact dates.  Between that and what I write on the weblog, I was able to construct an accurate date and time.

Then it came to weather.  Wunderground has a history feature that lets you put in a location and a date and get the general conditions at a weather station nearby.  My closest reporting station is about 25 miles away, but it was pretty darn close when it came to the conditions I remembered.

Moon phase too a little bit of doing. 

[Jrkimbrough]

I keep a log of harvests and it seems the majority of my harvests in MS happen within March 20th- April 1st. 

[aaron]

I would surmise it has less to
Do with those days being hot and more to
Do with you are always off hunting those days couples with it's on or near your opener and you're dealing with relatively unpressured birds

[shaman]

I would surmise it has less to
Do with those days being hot and more to
Do with you are always off hunting those days couples with it's on or near your opener and you're dealing with relatively unpressured birds

It is something like that for sure. Although hunting pressure is not all that big a deal.  I'm hunting my own 200 acres and after the Opener, there is usually no one around but me and one buddy, and he's not been out for 3 years.

Some other things I noted:

1)  I normally get a bird on Saturday (The Opener) or Friday (the last day of Opening Week)  I almost never get a bird on Sun thru Weds.
2)  With one exception, I have never bagged a bird in May-- I usually have my tags filled by then.
3)  I have taken more birds Mid-Morning than any other time, but my success at Flydown is increasing.   I don't track the actual time of day. Rather, I use a 2 character code (Flydown=FD, MM= Mid Morning). I may engage a bird at Flydown, but he doesn't come in for 2 hours-- I mark that an FD.  I owe my success at FD to changing tactics, specifically staying further back from the roost.
4)  The average shot I take is 20.53 yards. That's gone up from 17 yards 10 years ago. Part of that increase is a mistake I made a few years ago-- I shot a gob at 80 yards. I killed him but it wasn't pretty.  Normally I like them pecking at my shoestrings.
5) The average temperature when I pull the trigger is 56.6F.  I've taken them down into the low 40's, and I've had successful days where the 0600 temp was in the 60's, but the mid-50s seems to be where the birds like it.
6) Cloudy days are not the best.  I think that has something to do with visibility. When the sun is out, there is more variation in light.  I'm convinced turkeys have a hard time picking detail out of deep shadow. If I'm inside a treeline and the sun is shining on the cover, the turkeys have a harder time picking me out. If it's cloudy, the lighting is even, and they can see me easier.

One thing I need to figure out how to track that's missing:  It is my belief that I start to get receptive birds after 3 days of high temps over 70 degrees.  The first year, we had a heat wave and it drove the gobblers nuts.  Since then, I've noticed a cold opening week is usually not a good sign.  I need to start researching that, but I have not collected the data for it.  I'm sure that 1 day of 70F weather is not enough.

[GobbleNut]

I used to keep a record of my hunts back in the '60's, '70's, and early 80's.  As it turned out, those records showed that, whatever was the first day I hunted, a turkey died within the first few minutes of legal shooting time! (Note: Again, my emoji-thing isn't working, so I can't put the appropriate smiley face here).

Seriously, I wish I had continued to keep those records,....just got lazy, I suppose.

[shaman]

I used to keep a record of my hunts back in the '60's, '70's, and early 80's.  As it turned out, those records showed that, whatever was the first day I hunted, a turkey died within the first few minutes of legal shooting time! (Note: Again, my emoji-thing isn't working, so I can't put the appropriate smiley face here).

Seriously, I wish I had continued to keep those records,....just got lazy, I suppose.

It is never too late.  As long as you can remember the date and the approximate location and time, I've figure out that you can do a pretty darn good job of filling in the details.

[Ranger]

Come up with Mexican names around here for the last several years, Cinco de Mayo has been death for at least one bird and one year two for 4 years straight now.