Reason(s) Behind The Decline in Turkey Numbers?

[Bigfootwolff]

As someone who is fairly new to turkey hunting, I have some questions related to what might be the causes of the decline in turkey numbers in the southeastern US, as well as other areas.  My theories are not meant to be seen as factual, just some anecdotal observations based upon my limited reading on the subject coupled with some of my own observations.  Potential causes:

1.  Loss of good habitat, as aging farmers/property owners either pass away or decide to sell their properties, driven in part by increasing land prices and the lack of interest by younger family members/heirs to continue the agricultural practices, the farms are broken up into smaller land parcels.  These smaller land parcels are being purchased by city dwellers who are looking to either retire in the country, or move away from the big city to escape crime and the liberal social policies that are causing decline in urban areas.  This has likely increased over the last few years as civil unrest/riots and Covid have accelerated this migration.  The Covid lock downs caused businesses to allow some of their employees to work from home, which meant employees did not need to live near their employer, and could work remotely, allowing some people the ability to relocate to a rural area and work from home.
2.  Increasing numbers of hunters targeting turkeys, driven in part by sporting goods related companies (outdoor oriented sporting goods stores, camouflage clothing companies, firearms manufacturers, turkey hunting publications/websites, YouTube channels, etd.) as they seek to make money by increasing interest/participation in the sport of turkey hunting. 
3.  Technological advances in turkey hunting related products, to include improved camouflage patterns, more realistic looking turkey decoys, calls, red dot sights,  and specialty turkey choke tubes and ammunition, like TSS.  Just using TSS and the new extra full custom turkey chokes can make 60 yard shots a reality, where 40 might have been the previous max range with lead shot and bead sighted guns.  The result, even with call shy birds, is that should they come near to investigate some calling and or decoy setups, they are harvested at ranges that have historically been out of range.
4.  Increases in predators (coyotes,  bobcats, raccoons, opossums, skunks, etc.), brought about to some extent by decreases in trapping and predator hunting.
5.  Turkey seasons that begin too early, before most hens are bred and/or are incubating eggs.  Here in Texas, as efforts are being made to establish Eastern Turkeys in East Texas, the turkey season in east Texas doesn't begin until mid-April as opposed to the beginning of April for the rest of the state.  This allows approximately 50% of the hens of struggling populations in east Texas to already have been bred and incubating by the start of the season.  Researchers/biologists are still learning information about wild turkey populations, and some recent studies suggest that if too many dominant males are taken at the beginning of the typical seasons, breeding can be disrupted resulting in some hens not being bred, particularly in areas with few dominant males to begin with. 

Just curious to know if anyone else has another possible cause in decreasing turkey numbers and or any recommendations states might consider to combat this issue.  Some thoughts I have would include better management by fish and game agencies of specific counties and regions, versus a standard statewide season start and end date.  In addition, agencies should quickly adapt to changing/declining populations in those regions by reducing the number of males that can be harvested in said areas, changing season start dates, limiting the number of out of state turkey permits/licenses are issued.   

[Marc]

I feel there are two main reasons:

More people less land.
Improved agricultural practices leaving less and less fallow areas.

In my opinion (and from what I gleaned years ago in a wildlife biologies class), predator control is to some degree self-limiting.  If game/food supplies decrease for predators, so will predator numbers.

Actually an intersesting read on coyote control and upland game from one paper I read...  The journal indicated that improved coyote control actually lead to diminished upland game numbers...  It was proposed that coyotes primarily eat fur-bearing smaller animals, which actually compete for food with upland game.  And furthermore coyotes will kill raccoons, opposums, skunks, and bobcats which are all larger threats to upland populations than are coyotes.

[Sir-diealot]

Farming practices is one nobody likes to talk about but you had tractors 20 years ago that might have gone through a field at say 5MPH and now they are going 15MPH (Just numbers for the sake or argument) the hens can't get off the nests quickly enough sometimes and poults down stand a chance. Combines are more efficient and don't leave as much behind on the ground anymore so there is not as much for them to eat on the ground through the year. Hedgerows are knocked down at and alarming rate taking away nesting areas, hay is cut shorter sooner and more frequently than it used to be including during the incubation/nesting times in June and July destroying nests before they have had a chance to hatch and more. Not knocking farmers in any way but it is just fact.

[eggshell]

This vevry topic has been discussed at great length here. If you search through the topics you'll find literally hundreds of post on it and most will agree to some or all of your bullet points. No one has solved the mystery yet, but finally agencies are working on it. In the Virginia thread several posters agreed that it is multiple things in combination and no one thing. Someone said, It's a death of a thousand cuts and that is probably the best evaluation. I just saw one of our old farms was surveyed off into small home/vacation plots. All forest land that held turkeys. It's 171 acres of prime turkey habitat, now becoming residential. I have learned to detest a certain realty company in my area. If I ever want to spend money on real estate I would not do business with them. I have kicked myself a thousand times for letting the property get away from me.

[ChesterCopperpot]

As [mention]eggshell [/mention] stated, these topics have been discussed at great lengths here on the forum. But I'd like to add that there's a podcast that's been going now for a little while called Wild Turkey Science that has the leading biologists in the field discussing all of the issues at hand. They don't all agree and they've all got their own hypotheses, but the conversations are very worthwhile in their depth and scope, and I think all of the people involved truly care about the resource. The podcast is being sponsored by Turkeys For Tomorrow. Definitely worth going back and listening from the beginning.


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[Sir-diealot]

As [mention]eggshell [/mention] stated, these topics have been discussed at great lengths here on the forum. But I'd like to add that there's a podcast that's been going now for a little while called Wild Turkey Science that has the leading biologists in the field discussing all of the issues at hand. They don't all agree and they've all got their own hypotheses, but the conversations are very worthwhile in their depth and scope, and I think all of the people involved truly care about the resource. The podcast is being sponsored by Turkeys For Tomorrow. Definitely worth going back and listening from the beginning.


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Man I wished I liked podcasts, I just can't keep my concentration on them, especially if I am driving. Lots to be learned though with some of them. Edit: I just signed up for it just to give them more followers and help them out, I am not ever likely to listen though.

[silvestris]

In a nutshell, the primary problem is PEOPLE.

[TurkeyReaper69]

What decline? With all these new turkey hunters these days they haven't lived thru the pendulum swings of turkey populations. There are peaks and valleys in every single organisms population

[eggshell]

Chestercopperpot, Thanks for the mention and the podcast reminder. I attended dozens and dozens of conferences and symposiums in my career and listened to a whole lot of published paper and technical presentations. Some very good and many very bad or inconclusive. Typically if it was a grad student presenting, we expected it to be junk. A lot of junk came out of universities just to get students degrees and recognition for recruiting more students. Where the real meat was found was in the after hour discussions and at the dinner tables and bars. when the scientist got together and started talking about all the stuff that never made it to formal publishing. That is why a round table discussion is gold. I literally gleaned enough information from these casual encounters to change a small part of a project that made a difference in success and failure. Rarely are there any magic silver bullets, but enough ingredients to make a great healing elixir. Bringing the players to the table is probably of more value than some of the research they are funding.

[Meleagris gallopavo]

What decline? With all these new turkey hunters these days they haven't lived thru the pendulum swings of turkey populations. There are peaks and valleys in every single organisms population

Sage


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[Meleagris gallopavo]

Chestercopperpot, Thanks for the mention and the podcast reminder. I attended dozens and dozens of conferences and symposiums in my career and listened to a whole lot of published paper and technical presentations. Some very good and many very bad or inconclusive. Typically if it was a grad student presenting, we expected it to be junk. A lot of junk came out of universities just to get students degrees and recognition for recruiting more students. Where the real meat was found was in the after hour discussions and at the dinner tables and bars. when the scientist got together and started talking about all the stuff that never made it to formal publishing. That is why a round table discussion is gold. I literally gleaned enough information from these casual encounters to change a small part of a project that made a difference in success and failure. Rarely are there any magic silver bullets, but enough ingredients to make a great healing elixir. Bringing the players to the table is probably of more value than some of the research they are funding.

As a university scientist I wholeheartedly agree.  Formal presentations are very focused and often don't contain relevant information.  I also agree that a lot of junk comes out of universities, but not so much to get students for recognition, it's more for grant funding to pay for students who in turn publish junk for their major advisors to get recognition, promotions, and annual raises.  Students are just a means to an end.  I also strongly agree that the real meat is discussed in informal settings.  I have learned more from just talking and sharing ideas around the supper table with colleagues and stakeholders than reading pubs or going to formal meetings.  I like talking to stakeholders and asking them what they see as their needs and what they'd like to see me work on.  In turn I talk to them about what's doable and why some things aren't.  In my line of work the silver bullets are few and far between and things are always changing that make things that once were silver bullets completely useless.  The one constant you can count on is change.


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[dzsmith]

In a nutshell, the primary problem is PEOPLE.

thank you.

[Callmn closer]

I believe all the above factors contribute to the decline in the current turkey population, as well as poor weather for brood rearing and survival rates of poults.  Another factor could be West Nile Virus which has drastically reduced grouse numbers in our area that could also be a problem for the Wild Turkey.

[Nate]

Wow wee, what a bunch of BS, You guys need to wake up.

[Meleagris gallopavo]

Wow wee, what a bunch of BS, You guys need to wake up.

Wake up to what?


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