Found this study on turkey nesting

[Meleagris gallopavo]

While I was doing my routine Saturday morning reading about things that interest me I ran across this and thought I'd share it.  https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/bitstream/handle/10919/89515/Turkey_breeding_Phenology.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y


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[GobbleNut]

Interesting study,...thanks for posting, Mg.  As these scientific papers always tend to be, there is a lot of technical information and data that is a bit difficult to sort out and digest. 

What stood out to me was that this study was done based on information that was gathered back around 2004 and thereabouts, yet the conclusions drawn, and the inferences made in terms of turkey management and hunting strategies, have just recently started to be implemented in a lot of states.  Just goes to show how hard it is to change mindsets and traditions.  Perhaps if some of this information had been applied ten or fifteen years ago, maybe some of the declines in turkey populations in a few places would have been headed off. 

[Meleagris gallopavo]

There's tons of stuff out there most folks don't know about because it's not easy to find.  Here's one about an online turkey population dynamics model.

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Elizabeth-Brooks-5/publication/261826227_An_Online_Wild_Turkey_Population_Dynamics_Model/links/5cf148cca6fdcc8475fb71ee/An-Online-Wild-Turkey-Population-Dynamics-Model.pdf?origin=publication_detail

A ton of stuff can be found on researchgate.net.  You have to join to get most of the articles but a few you can download.  On researchgate and Google Scholar you can search an authors name and find just about anything they've published on wild turkeys.  The abstracts on many of these papers have the highlights and take home messages. 

What I did to get started was I Googled Virginia Tech wild turkey research because I live in Virginia and Virginia Tech is the Land Grant (Ag University) that would be conducting the work.  So you can do this for each individual state.  It just takes a little time and interest.

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[scattergun]

The thought process of that seems a little outdated to me. I think 2003 was my first turkey season ever. Back then, turkey populations were just then getting to be strong in Minnesota, there was a lottery for everything (except kids), and seasons were short. I remember sitting in the turkey seminar back then, and a lot of what was said has proven untrue. Minnesota still starts their spring season the same, middle of April. Turkey populations have exploded, and expanded to the entire state. Back in 2003, only the southern half of MN had a hunting season, and seeing a turkey north of Brainerd was a big thing. Today, you can't hardly throw a rock without hitting a turkey even as far as the Canada border.

That article stated they worry a season start to coincide with the peak gobbling may result in huge hen kills. I really don't understand how that was ever a concern. Why gobbling has anything to do with killing hens I don't know. They say "even as high as 10%" hen kill in the spring will hurt the populations. I really doubt that anything will ever cause that high of an accidental kill. I'm sure here and there a hen gets a stray pellet, but that's going to account for .01% or some non-issue amount.

Maybe my perspective is a little short. I'm sure plenty of you have turkey hunted since they were only beginning to be reintroduced in a lot of places, and got to see them grow. From my perspective, the turkeys I hunt today are the same turkeys I hunted with my dad in 2003. They still start gobbling about the same time, they still use the same areas, and they still lay eggs. The population numbers show that. I can only think that the states seeing declines are not from hunting related issues. 

[Paulmyr]

I'm a MN boy as well. Been hunting them since the early 90's. MN hasn't seen nearly the following or hunting pressure as southern states. In the beginning it was 1 bird 5 days and a lottery. They eased it abit to 1 bird 7 days over the counter. Now it's still 1 bird
7 days allowed in the 1st 5 time periods and the 6th time period open to hunters who haven't filled thier tags. The 6th period being extended to around 2 weeks.

That's a far cry from being able to hunt 30/40 days a season and take 2/3/5 gobblers in a season. Plus the amount of hunters down south compound the harvest to point where Mn doesn't even compare.
The turkeys have been expanding thier range here in Mn. I regularly hunt in north central MN. The amount of gobblers up there has drastically decreased in the last couple years. They appear to have rebounded a bit last year with a fair amount of Jakes spotted and numerous hens. Maybe this year as well with signs of a good hatch. We'll see next spring.

The southern states have a greater following with many more turkey killers in thier ranks and every year see an inflow of of killers from states with later starting dates. To compare the effect of hunting on the MN turkey population to any of the states below Iowa is comparing apples and oranges. I'll agree the inference to accidental hen kill seems a bit odd in the study. I would add there appears to be different factors possibly caused by hunting effecting nesting success that appear to be coming to light in recent years.

[scattergun]

Well there is Wisconsin right next door, and I think you would have trouble arguing that their turkey population is any worse off. If anything, people consider Wisconsin better. In WI you can buy another bonus turkey tag every day. It's not uncommon for WI residents to kill half a dozen turkeys in the spring, and more in the fall. Plenty kill 10+.

My memory might be fuzzy, but Turkey hunting MN before the mid 2000's definitely seemed restricted. 5 days sounds about right for the season, with no options if you didn't harvest in those 5 days. I also recall the shooting hours being bizarre, like sunrise to 4pm. I want to say the zones were similar, if not the same as the deer zones, and you were restricted to the small zone you had your tag for.

Now we have our first season of 7 days, plus F, which is almost 2 more weeks. The shooting hours are all day. The zones are only for data, we are free to hunt statewide on the same tag. Things are pretty good, except the turkeys continue to expand, yet the bag limit is still 2 (one spring and one fall) I'm not saying MN should open up as much as Wisconsin, but they could start selling some bonus tags, especially in the D, E, and F seasons. Set a low limit, maybe 1 tag per week, and sell until the season ends, or the quota is met. Fall is such a small part of it, I think they could simply up the limit to 2 easy enough.

I'm a South Dakota resident now, and there are definitely not as many turkeys here overall. I'm sure we can all agree that has to do with the environment here, and not the bag limits, which are low. Technically I believe you could shoot 3 in the spring, but you would have to apply for the lottery, and draw all three tags for prairie, black hills, and Custer.

[Paulmyr]

Wis sets a limit on how many tags are sold for each time period based on population and expected harvest rates. Hunters are able to buy more than one tag but once the limit is hit there are no more tags sold.

Most tags offered are in the southern 2/3 of the state. I'm of the opinion that Wis as a whole has more and better turkey habitat than MN barring the southeastern corner of Mn.

The northern half of Mn and the northern 1/3 of wisc are comparable in habitat and turkey numbers would be my guess from limited experience hunting both. Populations in these areas are highly dependant on weather. Brutal Winters mean low turkey populations. I stick by my previous comments and would add that comparing MN to Wisc is also apples and oranges.

[scattergun]

I don't know about that. I have not done much in Wisconsin, but I'm not seeing much difference between central WI and central MN. I'm not sure what you mean by SE turkey habitat. Rochester area has plenty of birds, but it has far more deer. It's nothing compared to central MN for turkey. I'm not about to give out specifics, but the general area between St. Cloud, Hutchinson, Alexandria, and Brainerd are loaded more than anywhere else in the state. After all these years I can still go back to my home town (in that central MN area), go out to land I know is good, zero scouting, and come out with a bird. I did it this year. Drove out, stayed at my parents. Went out, killed a bird by noon. I'm not super hunter by any means, its just that the turkeys are thick, as dense as anywhere else on the planet, and they have not changed their habits.

[eggshell]

Things that make you go Hmmmm!

Well I read the whole darn thing and contemplated it. Doing my best attempt at critical review, I do not see any dfinitive conclusions made towards solving any problems. First, it was all research review and data collection, there were no boots in the woods. It only determined estimated intial nesting dates. If I read right it was all based on a single year (2004). I never put much stock in such a small sample size. Like most research their primary determination is we need more research. I cans see where knowing the Initial average incubation date could be valuable to biologist, but First the primary question is, "What effect on nest success does hunting have in relationship to Initial Nesting?" The study may have answered more concerns if they looked at nest success comparing states with early openings vs late INI openings. So we can look at their map and determine when hens start to incubate, the question still remains, does it matter? I see some deep speculation and assumptions being made. Does hen density matter in success? For decades we hunted all kinds of game and fowl harvesting females and males alike and still species done well when habitat and environment were positive.

I would contend that a big influx of hunters in the woods post incubation initiation may be more harmful, in that it is well understood that an incubating hen disturbed from her nest is more unlikely to renest. 

I am always leary of research coming out of Universities, because it is their product. They don't have to produce anything but paper. A lot of University research is very good, but a whole lot of it only serves to get grad students degrees and professors tenure. They want their names in lights to make more money and "be someone". The best research from them is done when agencies control their money and methods.

If I was reviewing this I would only value it as a tool for determining data points or as a value model. I see no applicable solutions. The strongest point they make for themselves is we need more research and yes more money.   

[Paulmyr]

I don't know about that. I have not done much in Wisconsin, but I'm not seeing much difference between central WI and central MN. I'm not sure what you mean by SE turkey habitat. Rochester area has plenty of birds, but it has far more deer. It's nothing compared to central MN for turkey. I'm not about to give out specifics, but the general area between St. Cloud, Hutchinson, Alexandria, and Brainerd are loaded more than anywhere else in the state. After all these years I can still go back to my home town (in that central MN area), go out to land I know is good, zero scouting, and come out with a bird. I did it this year. Drove out, stayed at my parents. Went out, killed a bird by noon. I'm not super hunter by any means, its just that the turkeys are thick, as dense as anywhere else on the planet, and they have not changed their habits.

Take that area you describe in Mn and apply it to most of  the southern 2/3 of Wis. Wis  has more prime turkey habitat than MN. Every thing outside of the area you described in Mn and the SE corner of the state. Is marginal turkey habitat. They are there they just don't flourish.

Edit: I would take the area your talking about and extend it east and a little south to the st croix river. Problem is most of that at a is privately owned. Most likely not hunting there unless you know a somebody.

[scattergun]

Of course the prime MN areas are not in a perfect oval. I'm willing to admit that if you add up all the acres of prime turkey area in both states, WI might have more, but it isn't going to be that much. Best I can tell, WI sells and unlimited number of tags (although 1 per day per hunter) every year, and harvest around 25,000 to 30,000 a year. MN has had a lottery until very recent, however draw odds was almost always 100%. The harvest appears to be fairly consistent for the past 10 years at 12,000 to 14,000 birds per year. You will never convince me that the turkey population has remained stable for the past 10 years. It has increased dramatically. Further, you will never convince me that Wisconsin has twice the prime turkey habitat. Outside of that very general area I described in MN you find plenty of turkeys.

[eggshell]

Just a little reminder....this is an interenet forum and loose lips sink ships. I'd be careful how much I shared about boomimg/dense turkey flocks. As a matter of fact it might be wise to do a little editing on previous post. Isn't sharing too specific of information what bothered a lot of people about the youtube guys? Sometimes we forget eveyone in the world with interenet access can see what you post....you may be spot burning and not even know it.

[Paulmyr]

Of course the prime MN areas are not in a perfect oval. I'm willing to admit that if you add up all the acres of prime turkey area in both states, WI might have more, but it isn't going to be that much. Best I can tell, WI sells and unlimited number of tags (although 1 per day per hunter) every year, and harvest around 25,000 to 30,000 a year. MN has had a lottery until very recent, however draw odds was almost always 100%. The harvest appears to be fairly consistent for the past 10 years at 12,000 to 14,000 birds per year. You will never convince me that the turkey population has remained stable for the past 10 years. It has increased dramatically. Further, you will never convince me that Wisconsin has twice the prime turkey habitat. Outside of that very general area I described in MN you find plenty of turkeys. The Minnesota river valley is stacked with them. Rochester area isn't bad. Detroit lakes to Bemidji is fantastic. Mora area is fantastic. I never hunted much in far western MN, but NE South Dakota, say Sisseton/Lake City I see birds every time I drive through. Really other than the extreme south west MN, and far north east pine forest, turkeys have flourished in the entire state, some areas better than others.

Wis doesn't sell unlimited tags. Every time period has a set limit according to zones. They start the sales off with a lottery and the remaining tags are sold over the counter until gone, limit one per day.

1st day of otc tags sales starts at something like 9:00. If you buy online you are assigned a random number. This number signifies your place in line. Numbers are assigned 15 mins before the sale begins. You can log in earlier than that but won't be assigned a number until 15 mins prior to sales. When your number comes up your are let into the site to purchase 1 of the remaining tags. Because of the lottery most if not all tags for the 1st 2 seasons are already gone with few remaining for seasons 3 and 4. Once the set limit for each zone per time period is reached there are no more tags to be had for that zone during that time period.

MN started out with a drawing for a 5 day period. Zones were limited to south eastern half if the state. Over time the zones expanded west and north.If you were trying to draw a tag in area that had good amounts of public land to hunt you were only drawn every 2/3 years. Your odds were better if drawing in a zone with little public land. There's been so many changes to the MN turkey season since the early 90's the dates and the changes are jumbled in my mind.

Fantastic is a matter of perspective. No the turkey population hasn't been expanding north in the last few year. The area I've hunted in north central MN has seen dramatic decreases in the number of toms in the last 5 years. I've also noticed this decline on my drive up from the cities. Used to see turkeys all over during the 3 hour trip. Last 5 years until this spring turkeys were a rare sight. Lots of hens this year. Good hatch last year. I make that trip almost every other weekend. Areas areas around the cabin that would hold 5 or more gobblers 10 years ago were lucky to have 1 or 2. I did see a few Jake's this year and the it appears to have been a good hatch so fingers are crossed. My brother who lives 30 miles north of the cabin has noticed the same. Deep snow and brutally cold Winters have taken thier toll. There are enough to hunt if you know where to look for them but not even close to the population that existed 5 to 10 years ago.

Don't matter to me if you believe me about which state has better turkey habitat because I'll be hunting both. My point is comparing Wis to MN is like comparing apples to oranges. Turkey tag allocation, habitat, hunting pressure/available public land with solid turkey populations are different.

[scattergun]

Yes, fantastic is a matter of perception, but my perception is turkeys are doing great. There's going to be ups and downs, but overall it's great. Expanding or not, there's more turkey hunting opportunities in MN, and really anywhere, than there was when I was a kid. As I said, my first season was 2003. I turned 16 in 2010 (yes, short world view), so 2011 would have been my first lottery. I applied every year from 2011 until, was it 2019 the lottery was eliminated? In that timeframe, I drew an A season tag every year. My dad did not turkey hunt as much, and I'm not sure on his history. I know he applied and drew a tag in 2003, 2004, and then he started skipping years. He did not, and I have never met anyone who did not draw a tag after 2003. I have no idea how it was before then, I can barely remember 9/11.

You want to talk about downturns, lets talk ducks. Of course that always ends up in a shouting match, but that's my perception of what happens when things go bad. Thank god turkeys are not on that path at all... at least not yet. I still have yet to see any honest evidence that the season start dates, shooting the "boss tom", or any of the other odd theories have any effect on turkey populations. Obviously overharvest can be a concern, but that's an easy fix. I'm more focused on predator control myself. There's tons of food and habitat, and you can't control the weather. I can control how many raccoon, coyote, fox, and other predators are in the nesting areas. Predator control has been fairly successful on duck nesting.