2023 Changes in TN

[Shiloh]

Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states.  Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there.  That situation has always been interesting to me.  I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts. 

[wchadw]

Mississippi needs to follow suit .. less the days added

Agreed.


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[arkrem870]

Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states.  Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there.  That situation has always been interesting to me.  I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.

Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized

[GobbleNut]

Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states.  Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there.  That situation has always been interesting to me.  I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.

Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized

This is a question that needs to be answered.  Are there places where the gobbler population has been depleted, assumably through hunting-related harvest, to the point where the hen population is not experiencing breeding saturation?  I'm not sure there have been any studies done to either eliminate this concern or confirm that it may be a problem. 

I, personally, would think that it would be rare for the circumstances to exist where it would be a significant problem, but I  also believe that the assumption that it would never be a problem, without trying to verify that, is questionable. 

[deerhunt1988]

Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states.  Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there.  That situation has always been interesting to me.  I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.

Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized

Unless there is current research out there, not yet published, that shows this...There are no studies showing it! There is one research project going on right now that has analyzed over 100 turkey research projects seeing if any metrics have been changing over the past several decades. Looking at % of hens that initiate nests, mean nesting dates, nest success, etc. Basically a flat trend line on all these metrics compiled from nearly 50 years of research.

Now maybe something drastic has changed the past 6-8 years to contribute to the decline and the most current research will show it. There are a ton of great projects going on right now and more forthcoming.

Some of these changes we are seeing are not based on the best science, but more or less "theories" that have taken hold strong in the turkey community. I have not watched the TWRA commission meeting, but was told the commissioners went further than TWRA's recommendation. If that is true, just a another case of politics and emotion superseding biologist recommendations. This act has been on display in numerous other states as well when it comes to turkey regulations.

[deerhunt1988]

What bothers me the most about the TWRA changes, is that they could have tried taking care of their residents first. Rather than try and implement a non-resident draw/quota on public lands like MS recently did, they just removed a lot of public land hunting opportunity for residents. More draws, lower limits! Many of us have been predicting this for years on this very forum as the YouTube/Public Land/Social Media craze took off. And now here we are. Keeping the season open til the end of May is just a money grab to try and attract more non-residents since they will lose some on the front end with the delayed season.

Most ironic thing of all? They pay The Hunting Public to come pimp out turkey hunting. The next year they drop the limit. The next year, they remove a lot of public land hunting opportunity because "TOO CROWDED!",and drop the limit again. Funny how that works, eh?

[quavers59]

   Wish New Jersey would set a Max Limit on 5 Spring Gobblers. Right now- you can take mucho more then 5 ..

[tazmaniac]

Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states.  Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there.  That situation has always been interesting to me.  I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.

Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized

Unless there is current research out there, not yet published, that shows this...There are no studies showing it! There is one research project going on right now that has analyzed over 100 turkey research projects seeing if any metrics have been changing over the past several decades. Looking at % of hens that initiate nests, mean nesting dates, nest success, etc. Basically a flat trend line on all these metrics compiled from nearly 50 years of research.

Now maybe something drastic has changed the past 6-8 years to contribute to the decline and the most current research will show it. There are a ton of great projects going on right now and more forthcoming.

Some of these changes we are seeing are not based on the best science, but more or less "theories" that have taken hold strong in the turkey community. I have not watched the TWRA commission meeting, but was told the commissioners went further than TWRA's recommendation. If that is true, just a another case of politics and emotion superseding biologist recommendations. This act has been on display in numerous other states as well when it comes to turkey regulations.

Biologists are taught (and it is true) that removing spring gobblers has no effect on overall populations if they are removed after hens have been bred that spring.  The problem is, seasons were set (both in TN and MS) decades ago to start BEFORE peak breeding (which they are just now realizing due to the GPS collared hens).  Granted, we just don't know what effect hunting has on population trends if gobblers are removed before hens have been bred.

I hunt a lot in middle TN and over 30 years of experience... on my farms, peak nest initiation is early in the 4th week of April.  Backing that up, first ovulation and breeding peaks mid April.

I also hunt a lot in south MS... I only have about a decade of hard hunting here, but peak hatching in Forrest, Lamar, Marion, Greene and Perry counties seems to be mid to late May.  Back that up 28d for incubation, another 14 to produce the clutch, then another 10 or so from first ovulation till first egg, and peak breeding locally should be end of March.  I'm sure peak breeding in North MS is a bit later than south MS...

Point is, I truly believe season in both MS and TN opens before peak breeding has even started.

As far as late season goes, I've killed a gobbling tom in south MS the last day of the season (May 1) both last year and this year.  While they are hard to come by, toms are still interested in looking for receptive hens much later than many folks think.

This pic is from May 20th in south MS... 2-3 old poults

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[deerhunt1988]

If hens aren't getting bred or the breeding process is being delayed, shouldn't we be seeing later nest initiation/incubation dates? There have been plenty of GPS'd hens out there over the last ~8 years and plenty on the ground now. I've yet to see anything published though that suggests nesting dates are being delayed. Perhaps the data is there but we just haven't seen it yet. Maybe tied up in the publication process? Still seems like it'd be on display as justification to some of these changes as much talk as there is about "hens not getting bred".

Just hope we find some more definitive answers soon through all the newest research!

[tazmaniac]

You are correct that nest initiation dates have not changed in the past 30yrs (on my TN properties).

What has changed are the number of hens without poults at brood survey time in August.  And GPS collared data is showing a sig upward trend in hens not even initiating nests at all.  The key is going to be identifying WHY so many hens are not even starting a nest.  That is possibly the single biggest factor resulting in the population declines.

Back in the 90s, it was rare for me to see a hen without poults in the summer.  Now it seems only 1 out of 10 hens I see in summertime has poults by her side.  I'm sure a lot of that has to do with increased nest and poult predation, but we are finding out many of those hens now didn't even attempt to nest.  Was it because they were unable to find a suitable mate at time of ovulation?  Perhaps...

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[arkrem870]

Will you provide your source that's showing a significant number of hens aren't initiating nests at all. I would like to read this study.

[Paulmyr]

If hens aren't getting bred or the breeding process is being delayed, shouldn't we be seeing later nest initiation/incubation dates? There have been plenty of GPS'd hens out there over the last ~8 years and plenty on the ground now. I've yet to see anything published though that suggests nesting dates are being delayed. Perhaps the data is there but we just haven't seen it yet. Maybe tied up in the publication process? Still seems like it'd be on display as justification to some of these changes as much talk as there is about "hens not getting bred".

Just hope we find some more definitive answers soon through all the newest research!

I think The theory is a little more detailed than hens not getting bred or breeding being delayed. It's more like breeding being prolonged not allowing predator saturation. The example I've heard goes like this.

You have a flock of turkeys. Before breeding takes place pecking orders are set in gobbler as well as in hens of the flock. During this process hens choose which gobbler they feel has the right genes to pass on to their offspring. The decision isn't made on the spur of them moment. It takes time, maybe weeks.

When breeding is initiated it's started by the boss hen. She goes 1st. It's not just a willy nilly free for all. There is a structure to it. Once the Boss hen gets bred the next in line steps up. It maybe that day or the next it's up to her when she decides she's ready. The rest of the hens in the flock wait their turn according to pecking order. Presumably all the hens in the flock will have their primary breeding in a 1 too 2 week period depending on the size of the flock. If this happens according to theory, all the nest initiation takes place during a window of time that reflects the duration of the primary breeding in the flock. This also correlates to nests hatching and polts on the ground. This process is supposed to take place with all the flocks across the countryside around the same time. Nest initiation, incubation, and polts on the ground (before flight is possible) should happen across the countryside reflective of the date the boss hens started to breed making a limited window of time where vulnerable hens, eggs, and polts are available to predators.

Now's where the theory gets tricky. If the dominant Tom of the flock gets shot at anytime during this process, the process will start over from the beginning. It's not a next man up takes over and the process continues sort of deal. All the gobblers in the area must be reevaluated, decisions need to be made before the process  can begin again. All the remaining hens in the flock will need to go through the process of selecting the gobbler they deem has the right traits to pass on to their offspring. This may prolong primary breeding within the flock weeks, setting them behind the rest of the flocks across the countryside making a wider window when vulnerable hens, eggs, and polts on the ground are available for predation. Did this to multiple flocks across the countryside at different times or multiple times within the same flock and the window becomes wider yet.

The theory is that in order to have successful breeding, hens from all the flocks must be bred during a window of time that saturates the countryside with nest and polts allowing a finite number of predators only so much time to do damage. If you prolong the process you make hens, eggs, and polts vulnerable to predation over an extended period allowing the finite number of predators to take more of them.

After primary breeding takes places and the hen has the sperm  from her chosen gobbler she'll then proceed to secondary breedings which generally happen as a matter of opportunity rather than a long selection process. Secondary breeding may take place within the flock or with the flock 3 miles away. This is a back up plan incase her primary choice was wrong. When the time comes for fertilization she'll release sperm from all her breedings (primary and secondary) and the strongest sperm wins.

This is my take on the theory from what I've heard on multiple podcasts and it makes sense to me. It also helps to explain why  certain areas of the country maybe seeing drops in turkey populations and the possible need to limit the use of male turkey decoys that target dominant gobblers early in the season when in years past these dominant birds were nearly untouchable until late season without the use of said decoys.

[nativeks]

Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states.  Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there.  That situation has always been interesting to me.  I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.

Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized

Unless there is current research out there, not yet published, that shows this...There are no studies showing it! There is one research project going on right now that has analyzed over 100 turkey research projects seeing if any metrics have been changing over the past several decades. Looking at % of hens that initiate nests, mean nesting dates, nest success, etc. Basically a flat trend line on all these metrics compiled from nearly 50 years of research.

Now maybe something drastic has changed the past 6-8 years to contribute to the decline and the most current research will show it. There are a ton of great projects going on right now and more forthcoming.

Some of these changes we are seeing are not based on the best science, but more or less "theories" that have taken hold strong in the turkey community. I have not watched the TWRA commission meeting, but was told the commissioners went further than TWRA's recommendation. If that is true, just a another case of politics and emotion superseding biologist recommendations. This act has been on display in numerous other states as well when it comes to turkey regulations.

Biologists are taught (and it is true) that removing spring gobblers has no effect on overall populations if they are removed after hens have been bred that spring.  The problem is, seasons were set (both in TN and MS) decades ago to start BEFORE peak breeding (which they are just now realizing due to the GPS collared hens).  Granted, we just don't know what effect hunting has on population trends if gobblers are removed before hens have been bred.

I hunt a lot in middle TN and over 30 years of experience... on my farms, peak nest initiation is early in the 4th week of April.  Backing that up, first ovulation and breeding peaks mid April.

I also hunt a lot in south MS... I only have about a decade of hard hunting here, but peak hatching in Forrest, Lamar, Marion, Greene and Perry counties seems to be mid to late May.  Back that up 28d for incubation, another 14 to produce the clutch, then another 10 or so from first ovulation till first egg, and peak breeding locally should be end of March.  I'm sure peak breeding in North MS is a bit later than south MS...

Point is, I truly believe season in both MS and TN opens before peak breeding has even started.

As far as late season goes, I've killed a gobbling tom in south MS the last day of the season (May 1) both last year and this year.  While they are hard to come by, toms are still interested in looking for receptive hens much later than many folks think.

This pic is from May 20th in south MS... 2-3 old poults

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"He said, look, the assumption is that spring harvest has no effect on populations if it's below 30 percent of the toms in the population. So, in other words, you could go and remove about 30 percent each year as long as they're producing and it should have no long-term effect, unless you disrupt their breeding or you kill too many of them. That makes sense; right?

Which then goes on to that next assumption, which is that second bullet. What do you mean by doesn't disrupt breeding? Well, it should start around the median date of incubation. What does that mean? About the peak. So when most hens have just gone to nest, toms should be expendable at that point, right, some segment of them, because all the breeding is basically over; go ahead and remove them. He also noted, which has been shown very clearly in research, dominant birds are most susceptible early in the breeding season. They're most susceptible to being killed. Why? Because their testosterone is high. They're wired. They're aggressive. They're vocal. They come to a call. They fight each other. This bottom box is an important point. Okay. So Raymond and I spoke yesterday about models and the skepticism about models. You know, what Bill did in his document is he used the most widely cited model ever published on this bird that was conducted that is based on ten years of field research –consecutive years of research in Missouri. It's a classic, seminal piece of work. There were no missing values in their model. They knew every single input parameter, and that's what he used. And to this day it's still the best quality model available to predict how harvest would influence this bird.

In that model, as I'm going to show you, they had a poult-per-hen ratio three times higher than what we see in the Deep South right now. In other words, production was three times higher than it is right now. They also had harvest rates of toms that were 15 percent on average. And what we see routinely on public land is 30 to 70 percent annually on all public areas that we study across the south, and on private lands we see harvest rates in some places that are really low and some places on some properties, particularly this year, were 100 percent. All the marked birds we had were harvested. So the point is, the models that he used to tell us how to do that production, we weren't making as many turkeys and we weren't killing as many turkeys."

https://aonmag.com/hunting/start-turkey-season-later-research-advisory-board/

[tazmaniac]

Here is the problem in TN.... no poults.

And it's caused by BOTH fewer hens hatching put poults as well as fewer poults surviving per brood.  Double whammy

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[tazmaniac]

Will you provide your source that's showing a significant number of hens aren't initiating nests at all. I would like to read this study.

The majority of studies from the 90s and 00s (and early 10s) found 80% of hens initiated nests.

The new data from the ongoing studies is not out yet, but I've heard it's in the 60s%... a SIGNIFICANT decline

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