Turkey population concern question. Opinions wanted.

[chefrific]

For the past 10 years we have always seen decent flock.  Typical numbers of hens seen in groups of 10 to over 20.  Would also see on camera and in the field at least 7 to 10 gobblers/jakes working the same property.  This has dropped drastically and suddenly.
As of 2 years ago our neighbors (big commercial farm) across the creek and on one side have clear cut everything leaving my little 100 acres and my neighbor on the other side (300+ acres) with the only mature swamp bottom and standing timber and hardwood stands.
From August until now, we have only seen one small group of 6 to 8 hens and have only seen one gobbler.  No jakes.  We have heard 2 gobbling (while listening) over the last 2 weeks, but all cameras and personal sightings have still only seen the one male.  We know it's the same male because we call him "patches" due to large solid white blotches on this wings that lack stripes.
This is of coarse concerning to me.  My thinking is to not harvest any birds from the property this year but I'm having a hard time convincing my neighbor to refrain as well.
I feel that we should at least give this one male and small group of hens maximum opportunity for breeding success.  But I'm no biologist.  Are my concerns valid or is this just 'normal' turkey population fluctuation?  Could harvesting the one gobbler wipe out our future population?  Thoughts?

[fallhnt]

Habitat is the key. Approx 30 birds per 1000 acres of quality habitat is normal for the Midwest. Birds use certain areas during different times of the year. You can't stockpile wildlife.

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[nativeks]

Either those hens will attract a new gobbler or they will leave to find one.

[SD_smith]

I'd say leave it be for a year if possible, but if you don't shoot the bird then someone else will or a predator will eventually luck out. Might not hurt to give the biologist a call and maybe get their opinion. Sucks that this has happened.

[TauntoHawk]

It might be a habitat issue and not a population issue. If it's habitat any new birds or birds left might just move and not increase your localized population. My uncle's has a bunch of land in PA it always has a few birds and a gobbler or two sometimes just jakes it's not good habitat and even if I don't hunt it for a few seasons and no one kills any birds for like 3 years the population that I notice doesn't change because that's the carrying capacity of the habitat.

Starting a habitat project there this year since I have his permission to create better habitat for deer and turkey and expect that to help a lot.

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[Kylongspur88]

Numbers are down in many parts of Kentucky this year. It is most definitely due to a very poor hatch last year and an explosion in the coon population in the past few years. I got 4 birds on camera all fall and averaged 15 plus coons a night.

[silvestris]

It appears that your neighbors have killed your property for a very long period if not forever.  When I started hunting with Kenny Morgan in 1976, he was as interested in our neighbors management practices as much as the operations on ours.  Since, our lease was raped as well as most of the surrounding property and what was once a turkey paradise became virtually devoid of turkeys.  I feel for you because I have been there.