I can tell you from my past experience with winter gobbler flocks. The past 10 years I have had 8-11 long beards come to my feeder every winter. As spring gets closer the flock will spread out, with only 1-2 staying here on the property of 398 acers. I'm sure your flock will have an established pecking order, and some will stay and the others will go. I also know that we kill several here on the property every spring, and there is always a replacement waiting the next year.