That is something I would love to figure out....
I previously hunted a ranch, that the birds would seemingly gather in good size flocks for an orgey... Multiple toms breeding multiple hens, and those birds would stick together after fly-down all day. Killing a tom was challenging early season, but became significantly easier as the hens would go to nest.
Other places, it seems birds might "pair up" or one or two toms might be with 3-4 hens...
If... I see hens and toms together in the afternoon, I figure it is early in the season... If I start to see lone hens or lone toms late morning or afternoon, I figure it is mid to late in the breeding season.
When I hear spontaneous gobbling mid-morning, I figure the hens are leaving for the nest but still breeding and still roosting.
There is that golden time, when the hens are completely on the nest, and toms are on the limb desparately looking for a willing hen... And any sort of hen sound will pull them eagerly in... Short window (in my experience) but fun when it happens.
If birds have been roosting in a general area all season, and suddenly they are moving significant distances each time... I figure those birds are looking for new hens, and it is pretty late in the breeding season...
All of the above are my assumptions based on my experience only though...
