Figured we needed to go ahead and get this jump started so folks can start planning their 2021 season. There was good gobbler carryover in the 'destination' states that were closed to non-residents in 2020. Feel free to add to the following list:
Illinois
Kansas
Kentucky
Nebraska
Ohio
Get it while its good! (and watch out for those TSS pellets)
I haven't kept up with the closures from 2020, but the "elephant in the room" is that all of those states,...and possibly more,...could stay closed again next spring if we don't get a grip on covid in the next few months. Best pray that the vaccine has been widely distributed (and taken) by March or thereabouts.
I will also make this prediction for those that might eschew the vaccine. I will not be at all surprised that we will have to show proof of getting the vaccination to be able to travel to other states to hunt,...if that possibility exists at all.
I agree with you GobbleNut. Things haven't even begun to hit the fan yet. Every state I planned on hunting last Spring refunded me for my license except for Arizona. I turn 65 in February and will definitely take the vaccine when it's available, but I'm gonna wait to make any firm plans for Spring 2021. I did draw AZ again for next Spring, so hopefully that tag goes to use. Hopefully the San Carlos Reservation opens up too. I think things will be better and most likely we will be able to travel this Spring, but that is definitely up in the air. The next several months are going to be unlike any we've seen. I'm optimistic about this Spring, but man, this Winter is one for us all to take care.
Great thread - 2020 was going to be a Merriam trip for me. Postponed to 2021. Planned on spending a few bucks for a semi-guided but now hate to part with any deposit $$. Opinions?
Quote from: GobbleNut on December 06, 2020, 10:20:50 AM
I haven't kept up with the closures from 2020, but the "elephant in the room" is that all of those states,...and possibly more,...could stay closed again next spring if we don't get a grip on covid in the next few months. Best pray that the vaccine has been widely distributed (and taken) by March or thereabouts.
I will also make this prediction for those that might eschew the vaccine. I will not be at all surprised that we will have to show proof of getting the vaccination to be able to travel to other states to hunt,...if that possibility exists at all.
I'm making plans, but I won't pay money for anything that can't be refunded if they shut down again. Licenses will only be purchased just before the trip just to be safe.
Some of those states seen resident number of tags increase and harvest was higher than normal year. So may not be as many gobbler carry over as you would think.
States didn't close to non-res for deer season. Lot more $$ at stake there!
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on December 06, 2020, 01:00:05 PM
States didn't close to non-res for deer season. Lot more $$ at stake there!
Exactly. According to the media, numbers started climbing in ohio during the best time to deer hunt here, and the state didn't shut down non residents. A lot more money to be made on deer vs turkey.
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Quote from: Hook hanger on December 06, 2020, 12:39:35 PM
Some of those states seen resident number of tags increase and harvest was higher than normal year. So may not be as many gobbler carry over as you would think.
Absolutely TRUE Hook Hanger. If States weren't COMPLETELY closed to the Spring Turkey season, the numbers carried over will likely be DOWN. If you will remember, most States were shutdown, people were sent home from work and told to quarantine at home unless you were essential employees. Those States that did allow Spring Turkey season saw their local turkey populations Hit Hard with more hunters taking to the woods with PLENTY of time to hunt. Many hunters took their first turkey and many were Jakes. This will actually have a Very Adverse effect on the Gobbler population for several seasons to come. If this happens again this Spring, numbers will be down for at least 5 years and this may cause States DNR to close future seasons and or reduce numbers! I know my state, NC, had the highest harvest recorded in many years. All this was due to Covid, people being off work, more hunters in the woods and LARGER harvests...
All true bbcoach! And since school here in N.C. is still virtual in many Counties, kids young and old are in the deer woods and seeing Winter flocks of Turkeys and going....WOW!!!! First timers last Spring will be back at them again and bringing their buddies too for a Jake assault again!
According to my trail camera there are 3 gobblers carrying over to next spring on my drainage assuming they survive. Also 16 hens. When I bought the place in 2013 I had a fall flock of 18 gobblers and well over 50 hens.
Not to hijack the thread... but did any state report a decrease in turkeys killed last spring?
I'm with some of the previous posts, my understanding is that birds got hit hard and will likely so again this spring. I don't know if the 'closed' boarders resulted in a net gain of gobblers heading into 2021.
Some of these states have chunks of public land that are overwhelmingly hunted by non-residents each year. Easily 50%+ of the hunting pressure. Aw heck, I'll name a couple. Kansas WIHAs and a specific region of Nebraska where umpteen threads are posted about each year now. Once again, get it while its good! If you've traveled enough and hunted some of these spots, you'll understand.
Non-residents displaced by the closures last spring hit up neighboring states instead (Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.) and it sure got ugly with the insane pressure on public land.
For sure, it will be interesting to see how all of these elements come together this next spring. In regards to turkey numbers and hunt quality, much of that will depend on nesting success and survival in the last couple of years. I suspect hunter numbers and associated pressure will depend entirely upon what happens with the virus and whether it gets worse or better, and at this point, it would seem the distribution (and acceptance) of the vaccine will be the key element.
The latest predictions are that the vaccine will be widely available in the April/May timeframe next spring. Whether that comes to pass, and whether it makes any difference to us spring gobbler hunters, is the big unknown factor, I think.
As others have stated, it probably will be wise not to make any firm plans on out-of-state hunts until we get a much clearer picture of where things are at in a few more months.
I'd like to hunt MO, KY, NY and PA next spring. Whether or not that comes to fruition is, pretty much, Covid vaccine dependant I imagine. Have to wait and see. Besides, Lord knows what Sleezy Joe will come up with after inauguration.
Living in Ohio, I can tell you what I saw here. Last spring was closed to non-residents, but I saw more hunters in the woods and later into the season. The people off work went to the woods and water in masses. Did they kill more? My best guess is no they did not, most are not good hunters, but they did mess up some woods. One farm my buddy and I hunt had two kids (that should have been in school hunting it) and they scared the hell out of every turkey that made a track on that farm. Then one morning they blocked the access road so we couldn't get in. We just pulled out and let them have it. They never killed any that we knew of or that they admitted to the farmer. Public lands were hammered. The good news on that is we own adjacent lands and our flocks increased a bunch as birds fled to safe havens. I manage the hunting pressure very aggressively. During fall season I saw more gobblers as those birds stayed when they came over. what I did notice in the fall is we had a horrible hatch or poult recruitment. I have to wonder how much of this was due to nest abandonment because of human interaction (our woods were also filled with hikers and morel mushroom hunters). All in all I think Covid-19 had a very deep adverse effect on our sport. I think many more opportunist will return this spring and the worse part is the effect on hens and nest. I heard a lot of people talking about finding nest last spring. One area I hunt in another state is dominated by out of state hunters and my resident buddy said the whole area was devoid of hunters, because locals had given up hunting it. It was full of birds this fall, he said. So that may be a plus.
I know one thing for sure. I killed two spring gobblers in Ohio this spring and one in the fall. They have been eaten and my freezer is devoid of turkey meat, because I did not go out of state. That has not happened in decades I usually have at least 3-4 more for off season meals. :(
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on December 07, 2020, 07:05:00 AM
Some of these states have chunks of public land that are overwhelmingly hunted by non-residents each year. Easily 50%+ of the hunting pressure. Aw heck, I'll name a couple. Kansas WIHAs and a specific region of Nebraska where umpteen threads are posted about each year now. Once again, get it while its good! If you've traveled enough and hunted some of these spots, you'll understand.
Non-residents displaced by the closures last spring hit up neighboring states instead (Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.) and it sure got ugly with the insane pressure on public land.
What's your angle here? Seems your trying to draw attention to public in certain areas??? Why?
To be clear I hunt some of the states you mention but not on public. For instance you're directing people to Kansas. I've been hunting there for nearly two decades (on a friends private) and the decrease in turkey numbers is crazy. There's a reason they went to one turkey. As others have said a lot of the residents who never hunted before did last year and some were successful. Am I hopeful that the lack of non-residents boosted numbers in states? Hell yeah but I'm hopeful that anything boosts turkey numbers anywhere.
I guess I just don't get what your doing with these posts. Seems very underhanded and petty to direct people to public anywhere.
Many more out here in NY this year as well, had to throw some trespassers off the land I hunt twice last year which I have never had to do. Got the old "Oh I thought this was so and so's land" Funny, there were signs every 20 feet posting it, I know because I helped put some of them up. Yes the numbers were up here in NY here is the list by county if anybody is interested. (List is for Spring only) https://www.dec.ny.gov/outdoor/30420.html An increase of 119 in my county alone over 2019 and that is just for Spring hunting.
On a side note I have seen more turkey this fall and winter than I have seen the last 5 years combined, though most of those have been hen. 3 flocks approaching 30 and some crossing the road on Sunday I almost ran into, mostly hen and 2 Jakes in the group of 6 or so on Saturday so with seeing more I am hopeful but reserved.
As far as the vaccine goes no for me, company making it has had to pay over 20 billion in malpractice suits and has been given exemption from lawsuits with this vaccine. https://parler.com/post/6ea5e6f68e1b420b93e9bf1d6bae994a And I simply refuse to take any rushed vaccine anyway that has been largely untested and we do not know the side effects over time. Maybe in 10 years I will take it.
Way to many people hunting here this spring....The Mrs. is retiring December 31st, think maybe I will just sell out here and move to New Mexico. I hear there's tons of space and only one old fart hunting it :TooFunny: :goofball:
Quote from: eggshell on December 08, 2020, 04:44:33 PM
Way to many people hunting here this spring....The Mrs. is retiring December 31st, think maybe I will just sell out here and move to New Mexico. I hear there's tons of space and only one old fart hunting it :TooFunny: :goofball:
And I hear he is pretty easy to keep tabs on. Making all kinds of racket to get a turkey to gobble! I also hear he would be more successful of he had more drive and determination to "get it done at all costs" like the young superstars do.
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Quote from: cuttinAR on December 08, 2020, 08:08:18 AM
I guess I just don't get what your doing with these posts. Seems very underhanded and petty to direct people to public anywhere.
I thought that was what social media, forums, and YouTube is for these days? I'm just trying to help out like everyone else.
Quote from: bbcoach on December 06, 2020, 01:11:40 PM
Quote from: Hook hanger on December 06, 2020, 12:39:35 PM
Some of those states seen resident number of tags increase and harvest was higher than normal year. So may not be as many gobbler carry over as you would think.
Absolutely TRUE Hook Hanger. If States weren't COMPLETELY closed to the Spring Turkey season, the numbers carried over will likely be DOWN. If you will remember, most States were shutdown, people were sent home from work and told to quarantine at home unless you were essential employees. Those States that did allow Spring Turkey season saw their local turkey populations Hit Hard with more hunters taking to the woods with PLENTY of time to hunt. Many hunters took their first turkey and many were Jakes. This will actually have a Very Adverse effect on the Gobbler population for several seasons to come. If this happens again this Spring, numbers will be down for at least 5 years and this may cause States DNR to close future seasons and or reduce numbers! I know my state, NC, had the highest harvest recorded in many years. All this was due to Covid, people being off work, more hunters in the woods and LARGER harvests...
If you look at the data, some of the states were easily predicted to have had a higher harvest than previous years simply due to greater numbers of turkeys on the landscape.
Data I'm referencing includes summer brood surveys and jake harvests.
For example, you noted that a lot of jakes were harvested in North Carolina. Refer to North Carolina's 2019 summer brood survey below:
https://www.ncwildlife.org/Portals/0/Hunting/S%26R%20Program/2019_Summer_Observation_Survey_Summary.pdf
2019 had the best statewide average hatch in 8 years! That equals a lot more jakes available for harvest in 2020. Also was #2 on poults per brood in the past decade.
The same data is can be found for the other states that had great harvests. Yeah, COVID had a lot more people in the woods. But that isn't the only factor that contributed to high harvests.
1988, YOU started this thread talking about Gobbler carryover. I've read the report from 2019 but you should have read the 2020 report since you are talking about 2020 to 2021 carryover. I participate in our Summer Survey every year and have for years and get the Yearly Report e-mailed to me. Our brood and carryover numbers have been increasing each year except for 2020. This year two things adversely effected our numbers, 1. our numbers of hens with poults this spring was the lowest on record 2. NC had a record harvest this spring with many more jakes taken. If this continues with poult numbers staying down and record harvests continuing our Biologists will do a couple of things 1. Shorten our season 2. Take away tags or worst case, close our spring season all together. We have a spring season that is 5 weeks long, 2 tag bearded turkey season only. When you shoot your young birds, have record harvests, poor brood seasons and record number of hunters hitting the woods, YOUR CARRYOVER NUMBERS WILL DECREASE and population numbers go down! If you do this several years in a row.....Guess what happens? As 310 gauge said, we see what is happening in our state and KNOW beyond a shadow of a Doubt that the increase in hunter numbers from the 2020 Spring Covid quarantining, combined with our Highest Harvest numbers and poor 2020 Spring Brood numbers only lead to ONE thing and it isn't a GOOD thing for your STATES Turkey Population!
Quote from: bbcoach on December 08, 2020, 10:25:28 PM
1988, YOU started this thread talking about Gobbler carryover. I've read the report from 2019 but you should have read the 2020 report since you are talking about 2020 to 2021 carryover. I participate in our Summer Survey every year and have for years and get the Yearly Report e-mailed to me. Our brood and carryover numbers have been increasing each year except for 2020. This year two things adversely effected our numbers, 1. our numbers of hens with poults this spring was the lowest on record 2. NC had a record harvest this spring with many more jakes taken. If this continues with poult numbers staying down and record harvests continuing our Biologists will do a couple of things 1. Shorten our season 2. Take away tags or worst case, close our spring season all together. We have a spring season that is 5 weeks long, 2 tag bearded turkey season only. When you shoot your young birds, have record harvests, poor brood seasons and record number of hunters hitting the woods, YOUR CARRYOVER NUMBERS WILL DECREASE and population numbers go down! If you do this several years in a row.....Guess what happens? As 310 gauge said, we see what is happening in our state and KNOW beyond a shadow of a Doubt that the increase in hunter numbers from the 2020 Spring Covid quarantining, combined with our Highest Harvest numbers and poor 2020 Spring Brood numbers only lead to ONE thing and it isn't a GOOD thing for your STATES Turkey Population!
wouldn't carry over mean adult birds to carry over?
I believe he is referencing 2019 had a stellar crop, which led to an abundance of jakes in 2020, which would also lead to a decent 2 yr old carry over into 2021. Surely not all were killed.
Even more so if it was in a state which may have had a lower harvest from state NR shut downs. 2020s crop of broods will only be shown in lack of jakes this year, which may not be as noticeable if there's a big carryover of jakes to 2 yr old's from last season.
2022 will more noticeably show this years bad hatch as usually its 2 year olds make up the majority harvest
again, its all state specific as they aren't all the same ratio of Resident vs non resident
Quote from: sasquatch1 on December 09, 2020, 12:53:26 AM
I believe he is referencing 2019 had a stellar crop, which led to an abundance of jakes in 2020, which would also lead to a decent 2 yr old carry over into 2021. Surely not all were killed.
Even more so if it was in a state which may have had a lower harvest from state NR shut downs. 2020s crop of broods will only be shown in lack of jakes this year, which may not be as noticeable if there's a big carryover of jakes to 2 yr old's from last season.
2022 will more noticeably show this years bad hatch as usually its 2 year olds make up the majority harvest
Someone gets it.
Great hatch in 2019 = more jakes in 2020 = more 2 year olds in 2021
Brood survey (from 2 years prior) and jake harvest data are some of the most reliable indicators of how the upcoming spring will fare
I understand what you guys are saying about carryover numbers but several years of bad brood numbers, increasing numbers of young bird harvests and more hunting pressure lead to a decrease in population. If our resources are going to grow and prosper, you have to look past the end of your nose and think LONG TERM. Carryover numbers are short term, for a LONG term problem. We have ALL seen what happens when a resource gets over hunted. When MANKIND forgets where we have been, yes HISTORY, we make the SAME mistakes OVER and OVER. I don't want to see our States Turkey populations decrease or disappear because of our Short Sightedness. I love traveling to hunt turkeys, have about 6 states that I've hunted and want to expand to other States. But this guy, doesn't want to see Turkey numbers decrease due to only looking Short Term.
Quote from: bbcoach on December 09, 2020, 07:59:27 AM
I understand what you guys are saying about carryover numbers but several years of bad brood numbers, increasing numbers of young bird harvests and more hunting pressure lead to a decrease in population. If our resources are going to grow and prosper, you have to look past the end of your nose and think LONG TERM. Carryover numbers are short term, for a LONG term problem. We have ALL seen what happens when a resource gets over hunted. When MANKIND forgets where we have been, yes HISTORY, we make the SAME mistakes OVER and OVER. I don't want to see our States Turkey populations decrease or disappear because of our Short Sightedness. I love traveling to hunt turkeys, have about 6 states that I've hunted and want to expand to other States. But this guy, doesn't want to see Turkey numbers decrease due to only looking Short Term.
That isn't what this thread is about. You diverged. This thread is simply referencing spring 2021, not past that. There are definitely bigger problems at hand in the long term.
2019 Kansas had the lowest recruitment ever recorded. Won't be alot of 2 yr old birds around. 2020 is only marginally better with turkeys struggling to raise poults. I wouldnt expect some earth shattering hunting because simply there arent that many turkeys to carry over.
Covid was only able to be contracted during turkey season in 2020, but not during nonres deer season apparently :TooFunny:
If I can buy a tag, I'll be there regardless of vaccine or not. I'll wear my mask in public, but not going to let it dominant my life. Will try to get the Northeast done this year. Finished last season in Maine in June and it was an absolute blast
Quote from: Happy on December 08, 2020, 05:26:20 PM
Quote from: eggshell on December 08, 2020, 04:44:33 PM
Way to many people hunting here this spring....The Mrs. is retiring December 31st, think maybe I will just sell out here and move to New Mexico. I hear there's tons of space and only one old fart hunting it :TooFunny: :goofball:
And I hear he is pretty easy to keep tabs on. Making all kinds of racket to get a turkey to gobble! I also hear he would be more successful of he had more drive and determination to "get it done at all costs" like the young superstars do.
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I've heard of that guy myself. Can't say whether any of those rumors are true or not,....except for the cranky old fart description. That one I can vouch for! Come on down, Eggshell, there's room for one more of us! ;D
I think the point about nesting success (and corresponding poult survival) in years prior to any hunting season can't be emphasized enough in these kinds of discussions. Those states that have conditions wherein nesting success is consistent will generally have good, reliable hunting regardless of the amount of hunting pressure.
Those states that do not have consistent nesting success,...and especially those states that more recently have had several consecutive years of nest failure,...are going to have crappy turkey hunting whether there are more or fewer hunters participating, and whether they are residents or nonresidents.
The bottom line is that the solution to poor turkey hunting lies in wildlife managers solving the problems related to nesting success vs failure. Until that is accomplished, turkey populations in those places will continue to go downhill regardless of hunting pressure. Blaming (scientifically-regulated) hunting of wild turkeys for population declines is the proverbial "fools errand".