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US State of The Birds report

Started by sasquatch1, October 15, 2022, 05:35:41 AM

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Tom007

That about sums it up. We have all experienced that downward trend ourselves, but it's heart wrenching to see it in statistical form.....sad...thanks for sharing......
"Solo hunter"

Shiloh

Looking like most of Mississippi has had its best hatch in 25 years.  Not 100% verified yet, but that the word and what I've seen and others have talked about it seems plausible. 

deerhunt1988

Quote from: Shiloh on October 19, 2022, 09:06:41 AM
Looking like most of Mississippi has had its best hatch in 25 years.  Not 100% verified yet, but that the word and what I've seen and others have talked about it seems plausible.

Impossible, they kill most of them before the gobblers breed and constantly interrupt the breeding process!

Paulmyr

Not sure how much can be extrapolated in this report about wild turkeys. I don't see the peak of wild turkey populations  related in any of the lines provided in the graph. The overall land bird decline makes sense to me with the urban sprawl, loss of CRP, and have you ever seen the dead bird reports from windmills not mention what they do to bats.

Quote from: deerhunt1988 on October 19, 2022, 10:12:16 PM
Quote from: Shiloh on October 19, 2022, 09:06:41 AM
Looking like most of Mississippi has had its best hatch in 25 years.  Not 100% verified yet, but that the word and what I've seen and others have talked about it seems plausible.

Impossible, they kill most of them before the gobblers breed and constantly interrupt the breeding process!

Or a guy could say " See how well the restriction on non resident hunters worked by limiting the amount of people interrupting the breeding process and shooting gobblers before they breed." Not likely the case but the argument could be made.
Paul Myrdahl,  Goat trainee

"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people, and I require the same from them.". John Wayne, The Shootist.

deerhunt1988

Quote from: Paulmyr on October 20, 2022, 01:25:51 PM
Not sure how much can be extrapolated in this report about wild turkeys. I don't see the peak of wild turkey populations  related in any of the lines provided in the graph. The overall land bird decline makes sense to me with the urban sprawl, loss of CRP, and have you ever seen the dead bird reports from windmills not mention what they do to bats.

Quote from: deerhunt1988 on October 19, 2022, 10:12:16 PM
Quote from: Shiloh on October 19, 2022, 09:06:41 AM
Looking like most of Mississippi has had its best hatch in 25 years.  Not 100% verified yet, but that the word and what I've seen and others have talked about it seems plausible.

Impossible, they kill most of them before the gobblers breed and constantly interrupt the breeding process!

Or a guy could say " See how well the restriction on non resident hunters worked by limiting the amount of people interrupting the breeding process and shooting gobblers before they breed." Not likely the case but the argument could be made.

Be a bit hard to make the connection considering the non-resident restriction was only on public lands. There will be some research/data coming out soon regarding the delayed season structure on select MS WMAs that has been in place for 4 years now. The results (or lack thereof) will suprise some that have bought in to certain theories.

Paulmyr

Quote from: Paulmyr on October 20, 2022, 01:25:51 PM
Not sure how much can be extrapolated in this report about wild turkeys. I don't see the peak of wild turkey populations  related in any of the lines provided in the graph. The overall land bird decline makes sense to me with the urban sprawl, loss of CRP, and have you ever seen the dead bird reports from windmills not mention what they do to bats.

Quote from: deerhunt1988 on October 19, 2022, 10:12:16 PM
Quote from: Shiloh on October 19, 2022, 09:06:41 AM
Looking like most of Mississippi has had its best hatch in 25 years.  Not 100% verified yet, but that the word and what I've seen and others have talked about it seems plausible.

Impossible, they kill most of them before the gobblers breed and constantly interrupt the breeding process!

Or a guy could say " See how well the restriction on non resident hunters worked by limiting the amount of people interrupting the breeding process and shooting gobblers before they breed." Not likely the case but the argument could be made.

I agree. It's about the same as taking a general bird report and trying to find causation in it.

As to 4 year studies on certain Ms WMA's. Is 4 years long enough to make any inference from the data collected given the multiple variables that effect turkey populations, biggest variable IMO being weather?
Paul Myrdahl,  Goat trainee

"I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people, and I require the same from them.". John Wayne, The Shootist.

deerhunt1988

Quote from: Paulmyr on October 21, 2022, 01:18:33 PM
Quote from: Paulmyr on October 20, 2022, 01:25:51 PM
Not sure how much can be extrapolated in this report about wild turkeys. I don't see the peak of wild turkey populations  related in any of the lines provided in the graph. The overall land bird decline makes sense to me with the urban sprawl, loss of CRP, and have you ever seen the dead bird reports from windmills not mention what they do to bats.

Quote from: deerhunt1988 on October 19, 2022, 10:12:16 PM
Quote from: Shiloh on October 19, 2022, 09:06:41 AM
Looking like most of Mississippi has had its best hatch in 25 years.  Not 100% verified yet, but that the word and what I've seen and others have talked about it seems plausible.

Impossible, they kill most of them before the gobblers breed and constantly interrupt the breeding process!

Or a guy could say " See how well the restriction on non resident hunters worked by limiting the amount of people interrupting the breeding process and shooting gobblers before they breed." Not likely the case but the argument could be made.

I agree. It's about the same as taking a general bird report and trying to find causation in it.

As to 4 year studies on certain Ms WMA's. Is 4 years long enough to make any inference from the data collected given the multiple variables that effect turkey populations, biggest variable IMO being weather?

In southeast states with March openers (before the more recent delayed seasons), it was normal for 50%+ of public land harvest to occur in the first two weeks of the season. If this was negatively affecting reproduction, 4 years should be long enough to see some difference when testing THAT specific variable. The experts agree too.

TN also found no difference in breeding metrics with their first year of delayed season data. But they are just one season in. Its going to be interesting to see what they find 3-4 years into their study.

I agree, weather plays a much larger role then its been given credit for recently. I don't believe its coincidence that a large part of MS experienced drought during May-July while also having one of its best hatches in recent times. Turkey populations are also naturally cyclic which people seem to have forgotten.

Shiloh

DH88.......you know it's coons and YouTubers man!!  Come on and get your head in the game!!! 

GobbleNut

Assuming for the moment that wild turkeys are following the same path of decline that the referenced report indicates is happening with other avian species, that should, at least, be an indicator that something other than hunting is likely the cause (i.e...most of the species of birds referenced are not hunted).

However, if turkeys are following the same path as these other species, regardless of the causation, we are still faced with the reality that hunting opportunity is going to be the first element that is impacted (obviously, that is already the case in a number of states).  In addition, the closer turkey populations get to some "critical" minimum level, the more likely we are to see hunting curtailed altogether.

How likely is that possibility?  Who can say for certain.  One thing is for certain, though.  We can't keep continuing down the same path we are on right now and expect to return to the same level of hunting opportunity and quality of that hunting that we have had in the not-too-distant past.