Nebraska Changes - "Spring bag limit reduction not enough"

[Paulmyr]

I keep hearing look at Arkansas as a metric as to why limiting harvest and season lengths don't work like it was supposed to cure the problem right away. From what I've read, up until the recent no Jake rules, Jake's made over 50% of the harvest in Arkansas. Tough to rebuild a population of gobblers when your killing more juveniles than the adults that are being removed.

Except the jake rule isn't really "recent" there. It was implemented for 2011. As you can see below, after a decade of not killing jakes and a reduced season, their recruitment hasn't been helped. Data definitely doesn't support some of the current theories. There are bigger problems than "hens not getting bred/delayed breeding".

Interesting graph. Especially where it shows a spike in the hen polt ratio in 2012 a year after the implementation of the no Jake rule and the coinciding drop in 2013. I bet you'd be interested in the fact that Arkansas had its first ever recorded snow fall in may on the 3rd and also major flooding on may 31st through much of central Arkansas with totals reaching over 5" in Polk county on the western border of the state to Poinsette county on the north eastern part of the state in a 24 hour period.

In 2014 there was an EF4 tornado the ripped through much of the same area in central Arkansas. The storm dumped heavy rains in much of north central to northeastern Ar. Over 7" in some areas. Clay, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph, and sharp counties were all declared federal disaster areas mainly for high water.

The weather stabilized a bit in 2015 and 2016 and this is reflected in the graph.

In 2017 the state suffered a rain event in the April 30th time period where many portions of northern Arkansas were hammered with more than 6"of rain some reporting over 8" with 9.73" falling near Rogers . Short term rainfall records were set in little Rock with 1.55" falling in a 15 minute period and 2.17" over a 30 minute time period.

If my memory serves me right Arkansas had pretty poor recruitment weather throughout the 2013 – 2017 time period other than the incidents I described above which incidentally coincide with the drops shown on your graph.

Since this time period, starting in 2018 the hen polt ratios are on an upward trend. I think it would be disingenuous to use your graph as a metric to make the statement that since it's inception the no Jake rule hasn't helped the hen polt ratio as it seems the drops in the ratio appear to be weather related at least in correlation to the graph you provided. Are the no Jake rule and season changes helping? Possibly but I think more time is needed to show a correlation or lack there of.

What I would say in relation to my previous post and your graph is the downward spiral appears to have stopped and it's going to take more than one or 2 good/great hatches for the population to recover to levels of the past.

[deerhunt1988]

I keep hearing look at Arkansas as a metric as to why limiting harvest and season lengths don't work like it was supposed to cure the problem right away. From what I've read, up until the recent no Jake rules, Jake's made over 50% of the harvest in Arkansas. Tough to rebuild a population of gobblers when your killing more juveniles than the adults that are being removed.

Except the jake rule isn't really "recent" there. It was implemented for 2011. As you can see below, after a decade of not killing jakes and a reduced season, their recruitment hasn't been helped. Data definitely doesn't support some of the current theories. There are bigger problems than "hens not getting bred/delayed breeding".

Interesting graph. Especially where it shows a spike in the hen polt ratio in 2012 a year after the implementation of the no Jake rule and the coinciding drop in 2013. I bet you'd be interested in the fact that Arkansas had its first ever recorded snow fall in may on the 3rd and also major flooding on may 31st through much of central Arkansas with totals reaching over 5" in Polk county on the western border of the state to Poinsette county on the north eastern part of the state in a 24 hour period.

In 2014 there was an EF4 tornado the ripped through much of the same area in central Arkansas. The storm dumped heavy rains in much of north central to northeastern Ar. Over 7" in some areas. Clay, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph, and sharp counties were all declared federal disaster areas mainly for high water.

The weather stabilized a bit in 2015 and 2016 and this is reflected in the graph.

In 2017 the state suffered a rain event in the April 30th time period where many portions of northern Arkansas were hammered with more than 6"of rain some reporting over 8" with 9.73" falling near Rogers . Short term rainfall records were set in little Rock with 1.55" falling in a 15 minute period and 2.17" over a 30 minute time period.

If my memory serves me right Arkansas had pretty poor recruitment weather throughout the 2013 – 2017 time period other than the incidents I described above which incidentally coincide with the drops shown on your graph.

Since this time period, starting in 2018 the hen polt ratios are on an upward trend. I think it would be disingenuous to use your graph as a metric to make the statement that since it's inception the no Jake rule hasn't helped the hen polt ratio as it seems the drops in the ratio appear to be weather related at least in correlation to the graph you provided. Is it helping? Possibly but I think more time is needed to show a correlation or lack there of.

What I would say in relation to my previous post and your graph is the downward spiral appears to have stopped and it's going to take more than one or 2 good/great hatches for the population to recover to levels of the past.

2012 was a great hatch year regionwide, across multiple states. Which is not uncommon. When conditions align, (thanks, Mother Nature!) reproduction can boom on a large, multi-state scale.

Look at Missouri in 2012:




Mississippi in 2012. (The first state to implement a "no jakes" in the 90s).






Just glimpsed at LA's data and it was a great hatch there too that year.


And you are 100% correct, Mother Nature plays a large role in the up and down NATURAL fluctuations of turkey populations. We just can't seem to get consecutive good hatches anymore. Those 2-3+ year streaks of good hatches that a lot of states saw in the 90s and 2000s just aren't happening anymore. And like your example, some of these weather events are a reason why. I do know a lot of the eastern US saw a great hatch last year, and many parts of the southeast are drier than normal now, priming us for another good hatch. Fingers crossed!

I'm all for jake harvest restrictions, but I do I think its going to help recruitment? No. And why? Because all the research shows (even the latest) that there has been no change in the percentage of hens that initiate nests. And no change in mean incubation dates. If hens weren't getting bred or breeding was delayed, you'd think the data would show it. Maybe researchers are sitting on data that proves otherwise, but if they are, they really need to publish it to get us all on board!

[Paulmyr]

I'd be interested in getting a look at the studies you mention. Do you have any links or could you send me in the right direction? I used to have a research search engine bookmarked were I could look up all kinds of interesting studies about wild turkeys and wildlife in general but I seem to have lost it when my phone/phones went in the drink while duck hunting. I'm usually good for about one a year. Get my moneys worth from Insurion.

I guess my thoughts on no Jake harvest is to promote gobbler carry over making it easier for hens to choose a dominant Tom's to mate with. Instead of one gobbler having to service 20 or more hens in the area maybe with more around the hens per dominant gobbler number would be fewer especially if the population starts to rebound. If your taking more juveniles than adults I don't see that happening as readily. I could actually see it get worse with Tom's having to service even more hens as time progresses. I haven't been privy to mean incubation studies or data so it would be nice to see long term numbers for comparison.

[fallhnt]

Why are turkeys plentiful in urban areas?

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[Shiloh]

Lack of predators and good habitat

[GobbleNut]

Why are turkeys plentiful in urban areas?

Lack of predators and good habitat

Interesting observation, and I think the response is correct, but only partially so.  It should be added that turkeys can become accustomed to the presence of humans and human activity once they realize they are not threatened.  In addition, these types of situations often have the added attraction of people feeding wildlife to attract them for viewing.  Turkeys that become oblivious to danger from humans also become much more visible due to the fact that they don't feel compelled to hide for safety reasons.

This is not just unique to urban areas, either.  It is becoming more commonplace,...in all parts of the country, I suspect,...for folks to feed wildlife and hold them on their properties.  I have seen this common phenomenon pretty much everywhere I have hunted, even in very rural areas. Landowners attract wildlife to their properties with food and associated safety,...and soon the turkeys are staying right there most of the time. 

Speaking of the specific state referenced,...Nebraska,...we saw the very same thing this spring hunting in the Pine Ridge area.  Turkeys on the public lands,...if they were there at all,...were not apparent/visible at all, while private properties adjacent to those public areas had highly-visible turkeys that paid little attention to our human presence. 

Bottom line is that turkeys (and most other wildlife) are fully capable of learning where they are safe and where the vittles are,...and staying there,...even in the presence of us humans. 

[Paulmyr]

Lack of predators and good habitat

Not so sure about the lack of predators. I live 10 miles from downtown St Paul Mn. I see foxes and racoons on a regular basis. Have been for a while. Most turkeys I see are on the outskirts of the housing where it meets Ag land. Plenty of coyotes, coons, and other predators in them areas. I see some turkeys once in a while in the housing districts but not that often. There usually has to be some sort large wildlife sanctuary nearby or the housing is on large wooded lots.