2023 Changes in TN

[deerhunt1988]

Will you provide your source that's showing a significant number of hens aren't initiating nests at all. I would like to read this study.

The majority of studies from the 90s and 00s (and early 10s) found 80% of hens initiated nests.

The new data from the ongoing studies is not out yet, but I've heard it's in the 60s%... a SIGNIFICANT decline

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Looking at major studies from the 70s thru mid 2010s, a trend line would be around 80%. Multiple studies did find lower, several in the 60% range. On the top end, there are studies that found 90%+.

Maybe Taz has access to more recent data that many in the wildlife profession don't. A study that found 60% nest initiation wouldn't be out of the ordinary, as other studies have found it before. Now if multiple major research projects start finding sub ~75% nest initiation rates (below the long term trendline) we are getting somewhere in diagnosing the issue!

[deerhunt1988]

Study in Louisiana from 2015-2016 found 87% nest initiation and 65% on second attempts. And we all know how long Louisiana has been plagued with turkey problems. I'd love to see more recent data in LA since they moved their season back 2 weeks in 2018. Theoretically, going with some of the current theories, we should see greater than 85%+ nest imitation in this study area since birds have had 2 weeks longer to breed interrupted.

[TurkeyReaper69]

Just would like to say as a new TN resident (today's my first day starting a new job in morning) to hell with all the complainers who voted for this BS. This what happens when social media spreads fear amongst wanna be activists/biologist. Can't wait to get an early start to my season by going to Iowa before hunting at home in TN! What a warm welcome to the Volunteer State.

[deerhunt1988]

Here is the problem in TN.... no poults.

And it's caused by BOTH fewer hens hatching put poults as well as fewer poults surviving per brood.  Double whammy

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Yeah, decreased poult production is pretty much the problem everywhere.

According to TWRA's current project, mean nest initiation dates are still about the same as they've always been. April 10-12 for 2021.

[tazmaniac]

Here is the problem in TN.... no poults.

And it's caused by BOTH fewer hens hatching put poults as well as fewer poults surviving per brood.  Double whammy

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Yeah, decreased poult production is pretty much the problem everywhere.

According to TWRA's current project, mean nest initiation dates are still about the same as they've always been. April 10-12 for 2021.

I think you meant the START of nest initation is April 10 to 12.  MEAN statewide nest initiation in TN is the first week of May or so for years (but I bet these numbers include jennies... so for adult hens, MEAN nest initiation would be around the last week of April.  Extrapolating backwards would put MEAN breeding around mid April.

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[deerhunt1988]

Here is the problem in TN.... no poults.

And it's caused by BOTH fewer hens hatching put poults as well as fewer poults surviving per brood.  Double whammy

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Yeah, decreased poult production is pretty much the problem everywhere.

According to TWRA's current project, mean nest initiation dates are still about the same as they've always been. April 10-12 for 2021.

I think you meant the START of nest initation is April 10 to 12.  MEAN statewide nest initiation in TN is the first week of May or so for years (but I bet these numbers include jennies... so for adult hens, MEAN nest initiation would be around the last week of April.  Extrapolating backwards would put MEAN breeding around mid April.

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Correct, I meant start of initiation. I've been looking over countless studies today trying to see any indication of mean initiation dates changing (theoretically they should be later if hens are breeding later) and have yet to find evidence. Same for the percentage of hens attempting to nest.

I assume all this new revolutionary data will be published in the next couple years.

[tazmaniac]

Nothing revolutionary, just basic spring turkey hunting season setting practices... dont kill toms before they breed the hens.  Peak breeding in TN is mid April.  Season opens end of March or early April.  Half the entire seasons kill is in the first 9 days of season... by the time hens breed in earnest, a significant number of toms are no longer available to service them.

Traditional turkey hunting season setting philosophy was to never start season until peak setting (not breeding).  This was supposedly to reduce the number of inadvertently collaterally killed hens while killing toms, as then hens were on the nest and no longer with toms.  Not really sure this is necessary, though, as I've never killed a hen in 33 seasons.

Season dates obviously never mattered in the past, as populations exploded.  But now that they are falling, it makes sense (but I realize it may not make a difference in the real world) to afford the opportunity for most hens to be bred before killing off the toms.

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[RutnNStrutn]

Very interesting info from these studies. I've only been a TN resident for 13 months, and I live in a fairly rural area, however the stats I'm reading don't match what I'm seeing. I routinely see a good amount of gobblers and hens. Last summer I saw a good amount of poults, and not a single poult in the groups I watched was lost all the way through the fall.
This spring when the turkeys returned from winter flocking, I've seen similar good numbers.
The only thing I'm questioning is for the entire 13 months I've lived here, I have yet to see a jake.
I'm certainly no expert, and plan to live here quite a bit longer before offering up anything other than my observations.

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[deerhunt1988]

TWRA's own study doesn't show hens are having a problem initiating a nest. The following study was published in 2022 with data collected in 2017 and 2018. Out of 187 adult hens, 78% initiated a nest !




Link to study:

https://trace.tennessee.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=7094&context=utk_gradthes

[deerhunt1988]

And here is more data on nest initiation from previous studies. As I already mentioned, 60% has been found before. Over the past decade, initiation looks pretty darn good!

[arkrem870]

Missouri study shows hens are initiating nests as well........ 

[tazmaniac]

And here is more data on nest initiation from previous studies. As I already mentioned, 60% has been found before. Over the past decade, initiation looks pretty darn good!

Ty so much for the data! 

If you have contacts, there's a few things that don't make sense based on prior studies...

Why are Jennie nest success rates so much higher than adult hen nests in this study?  That flies against the face of prior research.  Just low sample size for the jennies and not significant? Also I find it surprising jennies began incubation on average at the same time as adult hens?  I always assumed jennies weren't ovulating until a few weeks after adult hens, therefore would initiate nests later than adult hens.  In the real world, I've called toms away from jennies on multiple occasions in early season, but have only had 2 toms leave adult hens to come to my calling in 30 years.

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[Jim K]

I'm in Pa and am very fortunate to watch turkeys every day. Now I'm not talking all PA, just at my place. I see hens with gobblers all spring. I know they aren't nesting. I see multiple hens walking around together ( saw 6 walking around together this morning). Two years ago, I had 11 hens walking around with one poult. The following fall and winter my neighbor trapped here and got rid of some predators. Last summer poult production was way up with 28 poults here. 22 made it to fall.

Our season starts the closest Saturday to May 1. Always has. Youth season is the Saturday before for one day.

At my place I estimate maybe 30% of the hens even attempt to nest.

These are just my observations at my place.

Why more hens don't attempt to nest I don't understand but I'm convinced they don't.

[owlhoot]

I'm in Pa and am very fortunate to watch turkeys every day. Now I'm not talking all PA, just at my place. I see hens with gobblers all spring. I know they aren't nesting. I see multiple hens walking around together ( saw 6 walking around together this morning). Two years ago, I had 11 hens walking around with one poult. The following fall and winter my neighbor trapped here and got rid of some predators. Last summer poult production was way up with 28 poults here. 22 made it to fall.

Our season starts the closest Saturday to May 1. Always has. Youth season is the Saturday before for one day.

At my place I estimate maybe 30% of the hens even attempt to nest.

These are just my observations at my place.

Why more hens don't attempt to nest I don't understand but I'm convinced they don't.

Maybe them hens don't want to breed with their brothers.
Maybe they know its a waste of time to sit on nest , put themselves in danger while the nest raiders and coyotes are everywhere.  Too much? Well the gobblers don't gobble as much because of hunting pressure or the predators come running. Anyone ever heard of that?
Keep going after the predator and nest raiders Jim, great job.

[Paulmyr]

I'm in Pa and am very fortunate to watch turkeys every day. Now I'm not talking all PA, just at my place. I see hens with gobblers all spring. I know they aren't nesting. I see multiple hens walking around together ( saw 6 walking around together this morning). Two years ago, I had 11 hens walking around with one poult. The following fall and winter my neighbor trapped here and got rid of some predators. Last summer poult production was way up with 28 poults here. 22 made it to fall.

Our season starts the closest Saturday to May 1. Always has. Youth season is the Saturday before for one day.

At my place I estimate maybe 30% of the hens even attempt to nest.

These are just my observations at my place.

Why more hens don't attempt to nest I don't understand but I'm convinced they don't.

Curious, how would you know if a hen attempted a nest or not?