The commissioners voted today to start the TN season two weeks later. Also, the bird limit will now be 2 (from 3) and only one of those can be a jake.
They voted to make year round trapping for coons and possums legal.
All necessary IMO.
Sounds like they recognize a problem and are trying to deal with. All good steps in the right direction. How long will your season be now with the loss of two weeks?
good to know.
appreciate the info
Quote from: lunghit on June 03, 2022, 04:39:24 PM
Sounds like they recognize a problem and are trying to deal with. All good steps in the right direction. How long will your season be now with the loss of two weeks?
Well they extended it on the back end to May 28.
Makes no sense to me.
Quote from: Roost 1 on June 03, 2022, 04:53:00 PM
Quote from: lunghit on June 03, 2022, 04:39:24 PM
Sounds like they recognize a problem and are trying to deal with. All good steps in the right direction. How long will your season be now with the loss of two weeks?
Well they extended it on the back end to May 28.
Makes no sense to me.
That seems very odd. I wonder what the reasoning on that is.
Quote from: lunghit on June 03, 2022, 04:58:55 PM
Quote from: Roost 1 on June 03, 2022, 04:53:00 PM
Quote from: lunghit on June 03, 2022, 04:39:24 PM
Sounds like they recognize a problem and are trying to deal with. All good steps in the right direction. How long will your season be now with the loss of two weeks?
Well they extended it on the back end to May 28.
Makes no sense to me.
That seems very odd. I wonder what the reasoning on that is.
Didn't see that. Makes no sense.
Quote from: lunghit on June 03, 2022, 04:58:55 PM
Quote from: Roost 1 on June 03, 2022, 04:53:00 PM
Quote from: lunghit on June 03, 2022, 04:39:24 PM
Sounds like they recognize a problem and are trying to deal with. All good steps in the right direction. How long will your season be now with the loss of two weeks?
Well they extended it on the back end to May 28.
Makes no sense to me.
That seems very odd. I wonder what the reasoning on that is.
The reasoning they gave in GA/AL for doing the same thing was to allow mature gobblers time to breed as many hens as possible before being killed. I see breeding here in mid to late February every year. Alabama moved their season back 10 days, reduced one bird, banned decoys for the first 10 days and added some of the days back on the back end. GA moved their season back about 10 days or so (I forget exactly), reduced a bird, changed to one a day, and I don't think they added any days on the back end.
Chasing the wrong rabbits in my opinion.
They pretty much took 2 weeks off the front and in doing so it will have the peak of the breeding season over, within my area. Adding those 2 weeks on the tail end makes no sense, i totally agree... Well people you ask for it... we went from 4 / 3 and now 2 ... WE will just have to make adjustments and continue hunting.
Mississippi needs to follow suit .. less the days added
Plenty of turkeys in my area of Tennessee from what I see. Then again, I've only lived here for 13 months. I guessed I should have shot 3 on my place this year, instead of laying off after taking one. :lol: I'm glad to see Tennessee is being proactive instead of waiting until the turkey population is in trouble.
Looks like a good plan, hopefully more states follow suit, gonna piss off some of the traveling guys but I think it could be a solid plan.
Good deal on the coons and possums! Too many egg eaters.
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Quote from: Howie g on June 03, 2022, 07:12:25 PM
Mississippi needs to follow suit .. less the days added
Strongly agreed
Quote from: shatcher on June 03, 2022, 04:34:50 PM
They voted to make year round trapping for coons and possums legal.
That's good!!! There are plenty of coons and possums on my place, and it's illegal to trap or hunt them right now.
So I can only sit back and let them raid the hen's nests. Next year that's going to change!!
Quote from: Howie g on June 03, 2022, 07:12:25 PM
Mississippi needs to follow suit .. less the days added
Ditto on that
Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states. Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there. That situation has always been interesting to me. I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.
Quote from: Howie g on June 03, 2022, 07:12:25 PM
Mississippi needs to follow suit .. less the days added
Agreed.
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Quote from: Shiloh on June 05, 2022, 07:45:00 AM
Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states. Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there. That situation has always been interesting to me. I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.
Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 05, 2022, 10:03:03 AM
Quote from: Shiloh on June 05, 2022, 07:45:00 AM
Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states. Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there. That situation has always been interesting to me. I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.
Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized
This is a question that needs to be answered. Are there places where the gobbler population has been depleted, assumably through hunting-related harvest, to the point where the hen population is not experiencing breeding saturation? I'm not sure there have been any studies done to either eliminate this concern or confirm that it may be a problem.
I, personally, would think that it would be rare for the circumstances to exist where it would be a significant problem, but I also believe that the assumption that it would never be a problem, without trying to verify that, is questionable.
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 05, 2022, 10:03:03 AM
Quote from: Shiloh on June 05, 2022, 07:45:00 AM
Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states. Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there. That situation has always been interesting to me. I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.
Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized
Unless there is current research out there, not yet published, that shows this...There are no studies showing it! There is one research project going on right now that has analyzed over 100 turkey research projects seeing if any metrics have been changing over the past several decades. Looking at % of hens that initiate nests, mean nesting dates, nest success, etc. Basically a flat trend line on all these metrics compiled from nearly 50 years of research.
Now maybe something drastic has changed the past 6-8 years to contribute to the decline and the most current research will show it. There are a ton of great projects going on right now and more forthcoming.
Some of these changes we are seeing are not based on the best science, but more or less "theories" that have taken hold strong in the turkey community. I have not watched the TWRA commission meeting, but was told the commissioners went further than TWRA's recommendation. If that is true, just a another case of politics and emotion superseding biologist recommendations. This act has been on display in numerous other states as well when it comes to turkey regulations.
What bothers me the most about the TWRA changes, is that they could have tried taking care of their residents first. Rather than try and implement a non-resident draw/quota on public lands like MS recently did, they just removed a lot of public land hunting opportunity for residents. More draws, lower limits! Many of us have been predicting this for years on this very forum as the YouTube/Public Land/Social Media craze took off. And now here we are. Keeping the season open til the end of May is just a money grab to try and attract more non-residents since they will lose some on the front end with the delayed season.
Most ironic thing of all? They pay The Hunting Public to come pimp out turkey hunting. The next year they drop the limit. The next year, they remove a lot of public land hunting opportunity because "TOO CROWDED!",and drop the limit again. Funny how that works, eh?
Wish New Jersey would set a Max Limit on 5 Spring Gobblers. Right now- you can take mucho more then 5 ..
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 05, 2022, 11:10:41 AM
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 05, 2022, 10:03:03 AM
Quote from: Shiloh on June 05, 2022, 07:45:00 AM
Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states. Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there. That situation has always been interesting to me. I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.
Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized
Unless there is current research out there, not yet published, that shows this...There are no studies showing it! There is one research project going on right now that has analyzed over 100 turkey research projects seeing if any metrics have been changing over the past several decades. Looking at % of hens that initiate nests, mean nesting dates, nest success, etc. Basically a flat trend line on all these metrics compiled from nearly 50 years of research.
Now maybe something drastic has changed the past 6-8 years to contribute to the decline and the most current research will show it. There are a ton of great projects going on right now and more forthcoming.
Some of these changes we are seeing are not based on the best science, but more or less "theories" that have taken hold strong in the turkey community. I have not watched the TWRA commission meeting, but was told the commissioners went further than TWRA's recommendation. If that is true, just a another case of politics and emotion superseding biologist recommendations. This act has been on display in numerous other states as well when it comes to turkey regulations.
Biologists are taught (and it is true) that removing spring gobblers has no effect on overall populations if they are removed after hens have been bred that spring. The problem is, seasons were set (both in TN and MS) decades ago to start BEFORE peak breeding (which they are just now realizing due to the GPS collared hens). Granted, we just don't know what effect hunting has on population trends if gobblers are removed before hens have been bred.
I hunt a lot in middle TN and over 30 years of experience... on my farms, peak nest initiation is early in the 4th week of April. Backing that up, first ovulation and breeding peaks mid April.
I also hunt a lot in south MS... I only have about a decade of hard hunting here, but peak hatching in Forrest, Lamar, Marion, Greene and Perry counties seems to be mid to late May. Back that up 28d for incubation, another 14 to produce the clutch, then another 10 or so from first ovulation till first egg, and peak breeding locally should be end of March. I'm sure peak breeding in North MS is a bit later than south MS...
Point is, I truly believe season in both MS and TN opens before peak breeding has even started.
As far as late season goes, I've killed a gobbling tom in south MS the last day of the season (May 1) both last year and this year. While they are hard to come by, toms are still interested in looking for receptive hens much later than many folks think.
This pic is from May 20th in south MS... 2-3 old poults(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/89e150a05adcdbe3da489b065882955b.jpg)
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If hens aren't getting bred or the breeding process is being delayed, shouldn't we be seeing later nest initiation/incubation dates? There have been plenty of GPS'd hens out there over the last ~8 years and plenty on the ground now. I've yet to see anything published though that suggests nesting dates are being delayed. Perhaps the data is there but we just haven't seen it yet. Maybe tied up in the publication process? Still seems like it'd be on display as justification to some of these changes as much talk as there is about "hens not getting bred".
Just hope we find some more definitive answers soon through all the newest research!
You are correct that nest initiation dates have not changed in the past 30yrs (on my TN properties).
What has changed are the number of hens without poults at brood survey time in August. And GPS collared data is showing a sig upward trend in hens not even initiating nests at all. The key is going to be identifying WHY so many hens are not even starting a nest. That is possibly the single biggest factor resulting in the population declines.
Back in the 90s, it was rare for me to see a hen without poults in the summer. Now it seems only 1 out of 10 hens I see in summertime has poults by her side. I'm sure a lot of that has to do with increased nest and poult predation, but we are finding out many of those hens now didn't even attempt to nest. Was it because they were unable to find a suitable mate at time of ovulation? Perhaps...
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Will you provide your source that's showing a significant number of hens aren't initiating nests at all. I would like to read this study.
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 05, 2022, 12:29:20 PM
If hens aren't getting bred or the breeding process is being delayed, shouldn't we be seeing later nest initiation/incubation dates? There have been plenty of GPS'd hens out there over the last ~8 years and plenty on the ground now. I've yet to see anything published though that suggests nesting dates are being delayed. Perhaps the data is there but we just haven't seen it yet. Maybe tied up in the publication process? Still seems like it'd be on display as justification to some of these changes as much talk as there is about "hens not getting bred".
Just hope we find some more definitive answers soon through all the newest research!
I think The theory is a little more detailed than hens not getting bred or breeding being delayed. It's more like breeding being prolonged not allowing predator saturation. The example I've heard goes like this.
You have a flock of turkeys. Before breeding takes place pecking orders are set in gobbler as well as in hens of the flock. During this process hens choose which gobbler they feel has the right genes to pass on to their offspring. The decision isn't made on the spur of them moment. It takes time, maybe weeks.
When breeding is initiated it's started by the boss hen. She goes 1st. It's not just a willy nilly free for all. There is a structure to it. Once the Boss hen gets bred the next in line steps up. It maybe that day or the next it's up to her when she decides she's ready. The rest of the hens in the flock wait their turn according to pecking order. Presumably all the hens in the flock will have their primary breeding in a 1 too 2 week period depending on the size of the flock. If this happens according to theory, all the nest initiation takes place during a window of time that reflects the duration of the primary breeding in the flock. This also correlates to nests hatching and polts on the ground. This process is supposed to take place with all the flocks across the countryside around the same time. Nest initiation, incubation, and polts on the ground (before flight is possible) should happen across the countryside reflective of the date the boss hens started to breed making a limited window of time where vulnerable hens, eggs, and polts are available to predators.
Now's where the theory gets tricky. If the dominant Tom of the flock gets shot at anytime during this process, the process will start over from the beginning. It's not a next man up takes over and the process continues sort of deal. All the gobblers in the area must be reevaluated, decisions need to be made before the process can begin again. All the remaining hens in the flock will need to go through the process of selecting the gobbler they deem has the right traits to pass on to their offspring. This may prolong primary breeding within the flock weeks, setting them behind the rest of the flocks across the countryside making a wider window when vulnerable hens, eggs, and polts on the ground are available for predation. Did this to multiple flocks across the countryside at different times or multiple times within the same flock and the window becomes wider yet.
The theory is that in order to have successful breeding, hens from all the flocks must be bred during a window of time that saturates the countryside with nest and polts allowing a finite number of predators only so much time to do damage. If you prolong the process you make hens, eggs, and polts vulnerable to predation over an extended period allowing the finite number of predators to take more of them.
After primary breeding takes places and the hen has the sperm from her chosen gobbler she'll then proceed to secondary breedings which generally happen as a matter of opportunity rather than a long selection process. Secondary breeding may take place within the flock or with the flock 3 miles away. This is a back up plan incase her primary choice was wrong. When the time comes for fertilization she'll release sperm from all her breedings (primary and secondary) and the strongest sperm wins.
This is my take on the theory from what I've heard on multiple podcasts and it makes sense to me. It also helps to explain why certain areas of the country maybe seeing drops in turkey populations and the possible need to limit the use of male turkey decoys that target dominant gobblers early in the season when in years past these dominant birds were nearly untouchable until late season without the use of said decoys.
Quote from: tazmaniac on June 05, 2022, 12:16:54 PM
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 05, 2022, 11:10:41 AM
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 05, 2022, 10:03:03 AM
Quote from: Shiloh on June 05, 2022, 07:45:00 AM
Mississippi will wait to see if this all has any positive effect in other states. Arkansas has tried everything and nothing has worked there. That situation has always been interesting to me. I would be for whatever works, but I'm not interested in throwing darts.
Arkansas moved seasons back in the early 2000's with no success. Show me the studies where eggs are going un-fertilized
Unless there is current research out there, not yet published, that shows this...There are no studies showing it! There is one research project going on right now that has analyzed over 100 turkey research projects seeing if any metrics have been changing over the past several decades. Looking at % of hens that initiate nests, mean nesting dates, nest success, etc. Basically a flat trend line on all these metrics compiled from nearly 50 years of research.
Now maybe something drastic has changed the past 6-8 years to contribute to the decline and the most current research will show it. There are a ton of great projects going on right now and more forthcoming.
Some of these changes we are seeing are not based on the best science, but more or less "theories" that have taken hold strong in the turkey community. I have not watched the TWRA commission meeting, but was told the commissioners went further than TWRA's recommendation. If that is true, just a another case of politics and emotion superseding biologist recommendations. This act has been on display in numerous other states as well when it comes to turkey regulations.
Biologists are taught (and it is true) that removing spring gobblers has no effect on overall populations if they are removed after hens have been bred that spring. The problem is, seasons were set (both in TN and MS) decades ago to start BEFORE peak breeding (which they are just now realizing due to the GPS collared hens). Granted, we just don't know what effect hunting has on population trends if gobblers are removed before hens have been bred.
I hunt a lot in middle TN and over 30 years of experience... on my farms, peak nest initiation is early in the 4th week of April. Backing that up, first ovulation and breeding peaks mid April.
I also hunt a lot in south MS... I only have about a decade of hard hunting here, but peak hatching in Forrest, Lamar, Marion, Greene and Perry counties seems to be mid to late May. Back that up 28d for incubation, another 14 to produce the clutch, then another 10 or so from first ovulation till first egg, and peak breeding locally should be end of March. I'm sure peak breeding in North MS is a bit later than south MS...
Point is, I truly believe season in both MS and TN opens before peak breeding has even started.
As far as late season goes, I've killed a gobbling tom in south MS the last day of the season (May 1) both last year and this year. While they are hard to come by, toms are still interested in looking for receptive hens much later than many folks think.
This pic is from May 20th in south MS... 2-3 old poults(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/89e150a05adcdbe3da489b065882955b.jpg)
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"He said, look, the assumption is that spring harvest has no effect on populations if it's below 30 percent of the toms in the population. So, in other words, you could go and remove about 30 percent each year as long as they're producing and it should have no long-term effect, unless you disrupt their breeding or you kill too many of them. That makes sense; right?
Which then goes on to that next assumption, which is that second bullet. What do you mean by doesn't disrupt breeding? Well, it should start around the median date of incubation. What does that mean? About the peak. So when most hens have just gone to nest, toms should be expendable at that point, right, some segment of them, because all the breeding is basically over; go ahead and remove them. He also noted, which has been shown very clearly in research, dominant birds are most susceptible early in the breeding season. They're most susceptible to being killed. Why? Because their testosterone is high. They're wired. They're aggressive. They're vocal. They come to a call. They fight each other. This bottom box is an important point. Okay. So Raymond and I spoke yesterday about models and the skepticism about models. You know, what Bill did in his document is he used the most widely cited model ever published on this bird that was conducted that is based on ten years of field research –consecutive years of research in Missouri. It's a classic, seminal piece of work. There were no missing values in their model. They knew every single input parameter, and that's what he used. And to this day it's still the best quality model available to predict how harvest would influence this bird.
In that model, as I'm going to show you, they had a poult-per-hen ratio three times higher than what we see in the Deep South right now. In other words, production was three times higher than it is right now. They also had harvest rates of toms that were 15 percent on average. And what we see routinely on public land is 30 to 70 percent annually on all public areas that we study across the south, and on private lands we see harvest rates in some places that are really low and some places on some properties, particularly this year, were 100 percent. All the marked birds we had were harvested. So the point is, the models that he used to tell us how to do that production, we weren't making as many turkeys and we weren't killing as many turkeys."
https://aonmag.com/hunting/start-turkey-season-later-research-advisory-board/
Here is the problem in TN.... no poults.
And it's caused by BOTH fewer hens hatching put poults as well as fewer poults surviving per brood. Double whammy(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/8c6bdf4fbc46c577d553a65471cf437d.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/ec0526d4b94e0587e61a6d640f9e72e2.jpg)
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Quote from: arkrem870 on June 05, 2022, 01:32:26 PM
Will you provide your source that's showing a significant number of hens aren't initiating nests at all. I would like to read this study.
The majority of studies from the 90s and 00s (and early 10s) found 80% of hens initiated nests.
The new data from the ongoing studies is not out yet, but I've heard it's in the 60s%... a SIGNIFICANT decline
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Quote from: tazmaniac on June 05, 2022, 04:15:12 PM
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 05, 2022, 01:32:26 PM
Will you provide your source that's showing a significant number of hens aren't initiating nests at all. I would like to read this study.
The majority of studies from the 90s and 00s (and early 10s) found 80% of hens initiated nests.
The new data from the ongoing studies is not out yet, but I've heard it's in the 60s%... a SIGNIFICANT decline
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Looking at major studies from the 70s thru mid 2010s, a trend line would be around 80%. Multiple studies did find lower, several in the 60% range. On the top end, there are studies that found 90%+.
Maybe Taz has access to more recent data that many in the wildlife profession don't. A study that found 60% nest initiation wouldn't be out of the ordinary, as other studies have found it before. Now if multiple major research projects start finding sub ~75% nest initiation rates (below the long term trendline) we are getting somewhere in diagnosing the issue!
Study in Louisiana from 2015-2016 found 87% nest initiation and 65% on second attempts. And we all know how long Louisiana has been plagued with turkey problems. I'd love to see more recent data in LA since they moved their season back 2 weeks in 2018. Theoretically, going with some of the current theories, we should see greater than 85%+ nest imitation in this study area since birds have had 2 weeks longer to breed interrupted.
(https://i.imgur.com/x0CIkoX.png)
Just would like to say as a new TN resident (today's my first day starting a new job in morning) to hell with all the complainers who voted for this BS. This what happens when social media spreads fear amongst wanna be activists/biologist. Can't wait to get an early start to my season by going to Iowa before hunting at home in TN! What a warm welcome to the Volunteer State.
Quote from: tazmaniac on June 05, 2022, 04:10:28 PM
Here is the problem in TN.... no poults.
And it's caused by BOTH fewer hens hatching put poults as well as fewer poults surviving per brood. Double whammy(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/8c6bdf4fbc46c577d553a65471cf437d.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/ec0526d4b94e0587e61a6d640f9e72e2.jpg)
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Yeah, decreased poult production is pretty much the problem everywhere.
According to TWRA's current project, mean nest initiation dates are still about the same as they've always been. April 10-12 for 2021.
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 05, 2022, 05:13:58 PM
Quote from: tazmaniac on June 05, 2022, 04:10:28 PM
Here is the problem in TN.... no poults.
And it's caused by BOTH fewer hens hatching put poults as well as fewer poults surviving per brood. Double whammy(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/8c6bdf4fbc46c577d553a65471cf437d.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/ec0526d4b94e0587e61a6d640f9e72e2.jpg)
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Yeah, decreased poult production is pretty much the problem everywhere.
According to TWRA's current project, mean nest initiation dates are still about the same as they've always been. April 10-12 for 2021.
I think you meant the START of nest initation is April 10 to 12. MEAN statewide nest initiation in TN is the first week of May or so for years (but I bet these numbers include jennies... so for adult hens, MEAN nest initiation would be around the last week of April. Extrapolating backwards would put MEAN breeding around mid April.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/5736330d0e7d0e5740d1c0ac8b7a390d.jpg)
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Quote from: tazmaniac on June 05, 2022, 05:26:21 PM
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 05, 2022, 05:13:58 PM
Quote from: tazmaniac on June 05, 2022, 04:10:28 PM
Here is the problem in TN.... no poults.
And it's caused by BOTH fewer hens hatching put poults as well as fewer poults surviving per brood. Double whammy(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/8c6bdf4fbc46c577d553a65471cf437d.jpg)(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/ec0526d4b94e0587e61a6d640f9e72e2.jpg)
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Yeah, decreased poult production is pretty much the problem everywhere.
According to TWRA's current project, mean nest initiation dates are still about the same as they've always been. April 10-12 for 2021.
I think you meant the START of nest initation is April 10 to 12. MEAN statewide nest initiation in TN is the first week of May or so for years (but I bet these numbers include jennies... so for adult hens, MEAN nest initiation would be around the last week of April. Extrapolating backwards would put MEAN breeding around mid April.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220605/5736330d0e7d0e5740d1c0ac8b7a390d.jpg)
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Correct, I meant start of initiation. I've been looking over countless studies today trying to see any indication of mean initiation dates changing (theoretically they should be later if hens are breeding later) and have yet to find evidence. Same for the percentage of hens attempting to nest.
I assume all this new revolutionary data will be published in the next couple years.
Nothing revolutionary, just basic spring turkey hunting season setting practices... dont kill toms before they breed the hens. Peak breeding in TN is mid April. Season opens end of March or early April. Half the entire seasons kill is in the first 9 days of season... by the time hens breed in earnest, a significant number of toms are no longer available to service them.
Traditional turkey hunting season setting philosophy was to never start season until peak setting (not breeding). This was supposedly to reduce the number of inadvertently collaterally killed hens while killing toms, as then hens were on the nest and no longer with toms. Not really sure this is necessary, though, as I've never killed a hen in 33 seasons.
Season dates obviously never mattered in the past, as populations exploded. But now that they are falling, it makes sense (but I realize it may not make a difference in the real world) to afford the opportunity for most hens to be bred before killing off the toms.
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Very interesting info from these studies. I've only been a TN resident for 13 months, and I live in a fairly rural area, however the stats I'm reading don't match what I'm seeing. I routinely see a good amount of gobblers and hens. Last summer I saw a good amount of poults, and not a single poult in the groups I watched was lost all the way through the fall.
This spring when the turkeys returned from winter flocking, I've seen similar good numbers.
The only thing I'm questioning is for the entire 13 months I've lived here, I have yet to see a jake.
I'm certainly no expert, and plan to live here quite a bit longer before offering up anything other than my observations.
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TWRA's own study doesn't show hens are having a problem initiating a nest. The following study was published in 2022 with data collected in 2017 and 2018. Out of 187 adult hens, 78% initiated a nest !
(https://i.imgur.com/WAS2hXQ.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/g2R6vIY.png)
Link to study:
https://trace.tennessee.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=7094&context=utk_gradthes
And here is more data on nest initiation from previous studies. As I already mentioned, 60% has been found before. Over the past decade, initiation looks pretty darn good!
(https://i.imgur.com/Z8cGs8E.png)
Missouri study shows hens are initiating nests as well........
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 05, 2022, 11:03:12 PM
And here is more data on nest initiation from previous studies. As I already mentioned, 60% has been found before. Over the past decade, initiation looks pretty darn good!
(https://i.imgur.com/Z8cGs8E.png)
Ty so much for the data!
If you have contacts, there's a few things that don't make sense based on prior studies...
Why are Jennie nest success rates so much higher than adult hen nests in this study? That flies against the face of prior research. Just low sample size for the jennies and not significant? Also I find it surprising jennies began incubation on average at the same time as adult hens? I always assumed jennies weren't ovulating until a few weeks after adult hens, therefore would initiate nests later than adult hens. In the real world, I've called toms away from jennies on multiple occasions in early season, but have only had 2 toms leave adult hens to come to my calling in 30 years.
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I'm in Pa and am very fortunate to watch turkeys every day. Now I'm not talking all PA, just at my place. I see hens with gobblers all spring. I know they aren't nesting. I see multiple hens walking around together ( saw 6 walking around together this morning). Two years ago, I had 11 hens walking around with one poult. The following fall and winter my neighbor trapped here and got rid of some predators. Last summer poult production was way up with 28 poults here. 22 made it to fall.
Our season starts the closest Saturday to May 1. Always has. Youth season is the Saturday before for one day.
At my place I estimate maybe 30% of the hens even attempt to nest.
These are just my observations at my place.
Why more hens don't attempt to nest I don't understand but I'm convinced they don't.
Quote from: Jim K on June 12, 2022, 05:58:39 PM
I'm in Pa and am very fortunate to watch turkeys every day. Now I'm not talking all PA, just at my place. I see hens with gobblers all spring. I know they aren't nesting. I see multiple hens walking around together ( saw 6 walking around together this morning). Two years ago, I had 11 hens walking around with one poult. The following fall and winter my neighbor trapped here and got rid of some predators. Last summer poult production was way up with 28 poults here. 22 made it to fall.
Our season starts the closest Saturday to May 1. Always has. Youth season is the Saturday before for one day.
At my place I estimate maybe 30% of the hens even attempt to nest.
These are just my observations at my place.
Why more hens don't attempt to nest I don't understand but I'm convinced they don't.
Maybe them hens don't want to breed with their brothers. ;D
Maybe they know its a waste of time to sit on nest , put themselves in danger while the nest raiders and coyotes are everywhere. Too much? Well the gobblers don't gobble as much because of hunting pressure or the predators come running. Anyone ever heard of that?
Keep going after the predator and nest raiders Jim, great job.
Quote from: Jim K on June 12, 2022, 05:58:39 PM
I'm in Pa and am very fortunate to watch turkeys every day. Now I'm not talking all PA, just at my place. I see hens with gobblers all spring. I know they aren't nesting. I see multiple hens walking around together ( saw 6 walking around together this morning). Two years ago, I had 11 hens walking around with one poult. The following fall and winter my neighbor trapped here and got rid of some predators. Last summer poult production was way up with 28 poults here. 22 made it to fall.
Our season starts the closest Saturday to May 1. Always has. Youth season is the Saturday before for one day.
At my place I estimate maybe 30% of the hens even attempt to nest.
These are just my observations at my place.
Why more hens don't attempt to nest I don't understand but I'm convinced they don't.
Curious, how would you know if a hen attempted a nest or not?
I would like to see New York State Reduce the Youth Season early Opener to just 1 Day.
Currently-- Youths have 2 Days and then all of May- May 1st-31st.
(1) Day is enough for the Youths
Quote from: quavers59 on June 13, 2022, 02:37:11 AM
I would like to see New York State Reduce the Youth Season early Opener to just 1 Day.
Currently-- Youths have 2 Days and then all of May- May 1st-31st.
(1) Day is enough for the Youths
Yeah that sounds like a great idea ::)
The PA youth season is just one Saturday and I have 3 kids that want to go. I'd vote 100% for them to add Sunday morning before church as one of our legal Sundays to hunt.
How many gobblers are these children killing that it upsets you?
Quote from: Number17 on June 13, 2022, 08:09:04 AM
Quote from: quavers59 on June 13, 2022, 02:37:11 AM
I would like to see New York State Reduce the Youth Season early Opener to just 1 Day.
Currently-- Youths have 2 Days and then all of May- May 1st-31st.
(1) Day is enough for the Youths
Yeah that sounds like a great idea ::)
The PA youth season is just one Saturday and I have 3 kids that want to go. I'd vote 100% for them to add Sunday morning before church as one of our legal Sundays to hunt.
How many gobblers are these children killing that it upsets you?
I think youth deserve a full weekend at the minimum, especially because many families have multiple kids to take. Some states give them a full week up front and that's definitely too much.
The only downside of early youth season is that so many adults see it as a way to kill an extra gobbler and take a kid that's not truly interested or just go shoot one on their kids tag. This behavior adds in to greed and excessive early harvest that many are concerned about. Adding a youth season on the end of season doesn't make sense though either because the success rates would be so low that they wouldn't be gaining anything with a youth exclusive season.
Finally, they are taking steps to adjust for population issues. Need more incintive to work on coyotes, good to see racoons restrictions eased on trapping, only issue is how many people are actively trapping anymore.
100% predation on nesting hens in LBL study. 107 nests monitored all failed. Proves what we know from prior research. They are initiating nests but predators (mainly raccoons and possums) are wreaking havoc
Quote from: quavers59 on June 13, 2022, 02:37:11 AM
I would like to see New York State Reduce the Youth Season early Opener to just 1 Day.
Currently-- Youths have 2 Days and then all of May- May 1st-31st.
(1) Day is enough for the Youths
I am in NY and I simply do not agree, I have no problem with two days of turkey for them.
What I do have a problem with is them getting a gun season before bow season starts, I would be fine to have them in the last few days of bow season (gun only of course for safty or bow hunters also in blaze orange) but not before bow season where they scare the deer with the loud guns and traipsing around leaving scent all over the place.
i would add fox to the list of nest raiders. they are not only hurting turkey numbers but quail, ducks, rabbits and songbirds to list a few. Predators are way out of control some more so than others.
Quote from: arkrem870 on June 27, 2022, 09:11:44 PM
100% predation on nesting hens in LBL study. 107 nests monitored all failed. Proves what we know from prior research. They are initiating nests but predators (mainly raccoons and possums) are wreaking havoc
The question that I have to ask is if those doing this study actually verified that nesting-related predation was the cause of all of these failures? Now, I am not claiming they were not. Like most others here, I believe predation is a major concern,...but 100% failure due to predation? Personally, that is a bit hard to comprehend.
My reasons for questions this are due to the fact that turkeys evolved in North America with predation always being part of the equation. They have been here for tens of thousands of years developing survival strategies that have always included predators. To think that, all of a sudden, predators have become numerous enough, as well as efficient enough, to cause 100% nesting failure just does not add up in my mind. Personally, I would include other "suspects" as causes here.
Marauding crows, hawks and owls. Feds need to let us kill hawks and owls.
Quote from: shatcher on June 28, 2022, 08:53:03 AM
Marauding crows, hawks and owls. Feds need to let us kill hawks and owls.
That will never happen. I'm sure they contribute to the problem but not sure we want to be seen shooting hawks and owls then throwing them in the trash. We're not going to eat them.
Quote from: Crghss on June 28, 2022, 08:02:23 PM
Quote from: shatcher on June 28, 2022, 08:53:03 AM
Marauding crows, hawks and owls. Feds need to let us kill hawks and owls.
That will never happen. I'm sure they contribute to the problem but not sure we want to be seen shooting hawks and owls then throwing them in the trash. We're not going to eat them.
Not going to eat coyotes either. Some may eat coons and possums, but I'm not.
I've tried smoked raccoon. It tasted like ham.
As a Tennessean, I overall liked the moves the commission made with the exception of the bag limit reduction. I like delaying the season but not taking days away from hunters. This will lessen early season Nonrez pressure and gets us much closer to the Median Date for the Onset of Incubation in Tennessee which is April 26th according to current studies by UT. Going to a 2 turkey limit is not ideal and I really don't think that will help much population wise, but I can live with it. I am not really a fan of states taking the most from their efficient resident hunters which is what a bag reduction does. Overall, I think the Tennessee wild turkey won and that is of utmost importance in my mind.
The science has shown Spring gobbler harvest will have 0 effect on populations if two rules are not violated:
- Kill less than 30% of your males
- Most of the harvest must occur after the Median Date for the Onset of Incubation.
Tennessee was violating both rules heavily and these changes help get us closer to these.
All commissioners should Read "Wild Turkey Harvest Management: Biology, Strategies, and Techniques" by Bill Healy and set seasons accordingly IMO.
Also - Hated to see more WMA land lost to quota, but seemed necessary as they are getting pounded after the successful paid advertising campaign by TWRA promoting public land turkeys in Tennessee.
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Quote from: arkrem870 on June 27, 2022, 09:11:44 PM
100% predation on nesting hens in LBL study. 107 nests monitored all failed. Proves what we know from prior research. They are initiating nests but predators (mainly raccoons and possums) are wreaking havoc
That study was also proven to be trash.
Typical nest success was found to be 30-40%. Combining recent studies across the Southeast have shown it has declined to the low 20% range.
My last experiences in LBL had coyotes showing up to our calling about half the time. I should have enough preference points to draw LBL next spring but haven't decided whether to commit as yet. Need to talk with a few locals I still communicate with and get a definite answer to a few of the road closure rules. The $310 I would spend for a KY license, tag, and LBL permit (with camping) also a factor. Quite the dilemma :OGturkeyhead: