https://journalstar.com/news/local/nebraska-game-and-parks-rejects-turkey-hunt-changes-approves-lion-river-otter-seasons/article_04ef6ce9-4f12-51aa-9095-2e155aaa9391.html
Their commission rejected the proposed changes on grounds that it isn't enough. Another proposal will be put together for the August meeting.
Some key lines:
QuoteAfter Meduna and his staff recommended the restrictions, he heard from about a dozen hunters, he said.
None of them opposed the changes. "In fact, a fair number have said we're not going far enough."
And at their meeting Friday in Lexington, Game and Parks Commissioners said the same thing — and voted against the proposed changes.
"They rejected our staff recommendations on the premise we weren't doing enough to minimize the impact on the turkey population," Meduna said after the meeting.
Commissioners asked for a revised plan that would further reduce the fall hen harvest, and minimize the impact of the spring season, he said.
He plans to have something ready for the commission's August meeting.
QuoteStill, THOSE ARE JUST THEORIES, he said. To get harder evidence of what's happening with Nebraska's turkeys, the commission is planning a three-year research study with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the University of Georgia.
This winter, they plan to place song meters in the trees of two western Nebraska study sites, allowing them to record the rate and intensity of gobbling and correlate that to the breeding and nesting seasons. That will help show, among other things, the impact of the hunting season on gobbling, an important part of the turkey breeding cycle.
They will also install 120 GPS collars on turkeys — 60 at each site — to study the survival of toms and hens, their habitat selection and nest survival.
Good chance the spring season will be pushed back/reduced, as the only other way to minimize spring harvest would be to drop the bag limit to 1. Then as you read on to see who is getting involved with Nebraska and the theories they are basing the changes on, it makes sense why they want to tighten regulations up so much more. At least we will find out that hunting pressure impacts gobbling and survival, like all the other song-meter studies show.
Dang that's crazy since I got 487 emails from Nebraska game and fish and the NWTF this year telling me to come on out and kill some. Turkeys everywhere they said.
Quote from: BBR12 on June 18, 2022, 11:49:50 AM
Dang that's crazy since I got 487 emails from Nebraska game and fish and the NWTF this year telling me to come on out and kill some. Turkeys everywhere they said.
Nebraska was definitely on the forefront of pimping out their turkey resource. I vividly remember the full page ads in hunting magazines/digests "Come for a merriam's, stay for two more!" (or something similar) that started a decade or so ago. And advertising all the great turkey hunting public land they had.
Fastforward to today, Chadron is basically a meme due to the mass attention it gets and how far it has declined in quality thanks to the internet (and Nebraska Game and Fish's own advertising campaign!)
Ought to be a lesson to other state agencies, but the past couple years have showed us different with states paying YouTubers and influencers to come hunt.
I'm guessing they will shorten their season. It's pretty long. With youth and archery it's nearly two months. And I second all the emails they send.
Quote from: Tail Feathers on June 18, 2022, 12:25:47 PM
I'm guessing they will shorten their season. It's pretty long. With youth and archery it's nearly two months. And I second all the emails they send.
Really long season! I thought archery opened in April, but it actually starts in March. I believe that is the longest season in the country.
(https://i.imgur.com/xhZqBY9.png)
Definitely not cutting much opportunity if its pushed back a week. I'd much rather see a week knocked off than a bag limit of 1.
They need to change their tag system, you can buy a tag and print out as many as you like! Definitely some taking advantage of that! I know a violator is a violator regardless of laws/rules, but it makes it way to easy to shoot multiple birds and appear legal!
I hunt a different state that has a really low harvest number and almost no one shoots a second bird, I have shot 2 birds each year I hunted there, and with the amount of pressure I see there is no way there harvest numbers are accurate, or it has the worst turkey hunters in the country!!!
Quote from: Dtrkyman on June 18, 2022, 01:45:14 PM
They need to change their tag system, you can buy a tag and print out as many as you like! Definitely some taking advantage of that! I know a violator is a violator regardless of laws/rules, but it makes it way to easy to shoot multiple birds and appear legal!
I hunt a different state that has a really low harvest number and almost no one shoots a second bird, I have shot 2 birds each year I hunted there, and with the amount of pressure I see there is no way there harvest numbers are accurate, or it has the worst turkey hunters in the country!!!
Yea Dave "Pinhoti" Ownens got busted for this in 2017 but what a role model he is you know.
I believe he also got busted in either Georgia or Alabama also before that. Doesn't that make him an habitual rules breaker? More like Pinpoachie right?
Good friend of mine is an appointed Nebraska commissioner. I'll have to talk to him. See what the consensus is for the final plan.
Quote from: Stoeger_bird on June 18, 2022, 06:31:17 PM
Quote from: Dtrkyman on June 18, 2022, 01:45:14 PM
They need to change their tag system, you can buy a tag and print out as many as you like! Definitely some taking advantage of that! I know a violator is a violator regardless of laws/rules, but it makes it way to easy to shoot multiple birds and appear legal!
I hunt a different state that has a really low harvest number and almost no one shoots a second bird, I have shot 2 birds each year I hunted there, and with the amount of pressure I see there is no way there harvest numbers are accurate, or it has the worst turkey hunters in the country!!!
Yea Dave "Pinhoti" Ownens got busted for this in 2017 but what a role model he is you know.
Could you provide more info on this? The only thing I could come up with was a Rodney Owen from Mo commiting game violations in Ne.
Quote from: Yoder409 on June 18, 2022, 10:45:11 PM
Good friend of mine is an appointed Nebraska commissioner. I'll have to talk to him. See what the consensus is for the final plan.
Please share with us as you are able.
Quote from: BBR12 on June 18, 2022, 11:49:50 AM
Dang that's crazy since I got 487 emails from Nebraska game and fish and the NWTF this year telling me to come on out and kill some. Turkeys everywhere they said.
Kentucky does the same bs for turkeys and especially deer. They love to advertise "come hunt the peak of the rut with a rifle on an over the counter tag." Now the average guy has been priced out of hunting and there's no shortage of grifters making a nice profit
Quote from: Paulmyr on June 19, 2022, 05:07:55 AM
Quote from: Stoeger_bird on June 18, 2022, 06:31:17 PM
Quote from: Dtrkyman on June 18, 2022, 01:45:14 PM
They need to change their tag system, you can buy a tag and print out as many as you like! Definitely some taking advantage of that! I know a violator is a violator regardless of laws/rules, but it makes it way to easy to shoot multiple birds and appear legal!
I hunt a different state that has a really low harvest number and almost no one shoots a second bird, I have shot 2 birds each year I hunted there, and with the amount of pressure I see there is no way there harvest numbers are accurate, or it has the worst turkey hunters in the country!!!
Yea Dave "Pinhoti" Ownens got busted for this in 2017 but what a role model he is you know.
Could you provide more info on this this? The only thing I could come up with was a Rodney Owen from Mo commiting game violations in Ne.
I also could not find anything on an internet search for violations by Dave Owens. Maybe I don't know where to look? ???
I don't remember any specifics about Owen's but I thought he even did a video about making a tagging mistake?
happens I won't hold it against em.
Quote from: Tail Feathers on June 19, 2022, 08:05:35 AM
Quote from: Yoder409 on June 18, 2022, 10:45:11 PM
Good friend of mine is an appointed Nebraska commissioner. I'll have to talk to him. See what the consensus is for the final plan.
Please share with us as you are able.
If I am privy to any insight, I will definitely let you know.
Here is a "Duhhh" moment for everyone:
The reason we are in the place we are with wild turkeys in those regions where they are declining is that reproductive success and survival of young turkeys to adulthood is not keeping up with adult mortality that is a result of all factors, including human hunting. The key/solution to this dilemma at its fundamental level is found in solving the reproduction/population recruitment problem.
Wild turkey managers fully understand the above statement. They know that the solution is in reproduction rather than hunting restrictions. HOWEVER, they also know that reversing the reproduction problem is dependent upon having adequate numbers of adult turkeys "on the ground" if and when that happens. Managers are reaching that "protection mode" in many locations.
For decades, the theory of spring gobbler hunting was "the gobblers are surplus,...we don't have to worry about how many are killed in the spring". That theory is now changing to "wait a minute,...we have to have SOME gobblers (and enough gobblers) out there on the landscape during breeding season to start with!"
THAT is the reason we are seeing reduced seasons and bag limits! Wildlife managers are fully aware that hunting restrictions are not the answer,...but they also are aware that the ONLY hope for reversing the trend in declining numbers is to ensure there are adequate numbers of adult turkeys on the landscape to have ANY chance of recovery if and when the reproduction problem is solved. (Note: the only other solution is artificial supplementation of populations which, in my opinion, will have to be implemented at some point in the future)
The "wait a minute" theory is not new, it has just come into the picture more now.
Many states have been utilizing that theory for years!
Illinois, Missouri, Wisconsin and My Michigan to name a few.
All those states scatter harvest over a long season, Illinois and Missouri have Monday openers, Missouri only allows a single bird the first week.
Nothing new just not implemented often enough.
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I think it was always assumed that hunting was compensatory mortality. And I believe that is likely the case in an expanding, or stable population. However with current trends in populations I believe we have potentially swung into the additive category. Every bird's life matters more when the population numbers are lower. We can't keep exploiting the resource like we could when numbers are 10% of the highs we saw.
Quote from: nativeks on June 20, 2022, 02:18:39 PM
I think it was always assumed that hunting was compensatory mortality. And I believe that is likely the case in an expanding, or stable population. However with current trends in populations I believe we have potentially swung into the additive category. Every bird's life matters more when the population numbers are lower. We can't keep exploiting the resource like we could when numbers are 10% of the highs we saw.
For those that might not be familiar with "compensatory" versus "additive" mortality, simply stated, the concept of compensatory mortality revolves around the idea that hunting removes individual animals from populations that would most likely die from other causes anyway. Additive mortality is the idea that hunting removes animals that would otherwise survive (not be taken out of the population by other mortality factors).
Regarding wild turkeys, the evidence I personally have seen suggests to me that, with gobblers in particular, once they reach adulthood, they are less likely to die from those various "compensatory" mortality factors than are hens and young-of-the-year. That fact was also one of the fundamental reasons (among others) for initiating spring gobbler seasons to begin with. Again, simply stated, we are/were taking "surplus" gobblers out of turkey populations,...gobblers which are more resistant to compensatory mortality factors than other segments of the population.
The questions we must ask in terms of human hunting are,..."At what point are we going past compensatory mortality into the additive mortality stage,...and at what point in that additive mortality stage is hunting becoming detrimental to the well-being of the resource?"
I agree with nativeks that we have reached a point in some of these declining turkey populations where we have gone beyond the compensatory mortality threshold and to a point in additive mortality that we are removing more adult gobblers from those populations than we should be. Wildlife managers are coming to grips with that fact, and we hunters must also,...that is, at least until we get back to those "expanding or stable population" conditions.
I listened to the morning session of the Kansas Wildlife and Parks. They had outfitters come in and speak. The head of the outfitters association got up and said we need to reduce the season length, and take the entire state to one bird. Another said that properties he had 150-200 turkeys on now are totally devoid of birds. The birds are coming home to roost so to speak. I'll post the video when its available with the times so you can watch.
Quote from: nativeks on June 23, 2022, 03:28:08 PM
I listened to the morning session of the Kansas Wildlife and Parks. They had outfitters come in and speak. The head of the outfitters association got up and said we need to reduce the season length, and take the entire state to one bird. Another said that properties he had 150-200 turkeys on now are totally devoid of birds. The birds are coming home to roost so to speak. I'll post the video when its available with the times so you can watch.
Know things are getting grim when the outfitters start advocating for regs that affect their pocketbook! That actually helps put their situation into perspective for me.
Quote from: GobbleNut on June 20, 2022, 08:55:21 AM
For decades, the theory of spring gobbler hunting was "the gobblers are surplus,...we don't have to worry about how many are killed in the spring". That theory is now changing to "wait a minute,...we have to have SOME gobblers (and enough gobblers) out there on the landscape during breeding season to start with!"
Bingo! I brought this up earlier this spring and had some guy tell me that all gobblers are expendable and should be treated as such. I tried to explain that we need some left and he told me that the population will sustain itself with new hatches. I guess he doesn't care about having anything but jakes to hunt?!
Quote from: GobbleNut on June 20, 2022, 08:55:21 AM
Here is a "Duhhh" moment for everyone:
The reason we are in the place we are with wild turkeys in those regions where they are declining is that reproductive success and survival of young turkeys to adulthood is not keeping up with adult mortality that is a result of all factors, including human hunting. The key/solution to this dilemma at its fundamental level is found in solving the reproduction/population recruitment problem.
Wild turkey managers fully understand the above statement. They know that the solution is in reproduction rather than hunting restrictions. HOWEVER, they also know that reversing the reproduction problem is dependent upon having adequate numbers of adult turkeys "on the ground" if and when that happens. Managers are reaching that "protection mode" in many locations.
For decades, the theory of spring gobbler hunting was "the gobblers are surplus,...we don't have to worry about how many are killed in the spring". That theory is now changing to "wait a minute,...we have to have SOME gobblers (and enough gobblers) out there on the landscape during breeding season to start with!"
THAT is the reason we are seeing reduced seasons and bag limits! Wildlife managers are fully aware that hunting restrictions are not the answer,...but they also are aware that the ONLY hope for reversing the trend in declining numbers is to ensure there are adequate numbers of adult turkeys on the landscape to have ANY chance of recovery if and when the reproduction problem is solved. (Note: the only other solution is artificial supplementation of populations which, in my opinion, will have to be implemented at some point in the future)
You nailed it. Some of these states let their population get so low that, even in consecutive good hatch years, there just aren't that many turkey left to see the population really explode like it did in the early 2000's. We (and other predators) started taking the booms in reproduction for granted and never pulled back when we started having bad hatches in consecutive years.
I think we need to be taking a page out of the waterfowler's play book and regulating/adjusting harvest based on population/reproduction numbers from year to year. In other words- if you know the population is at X right now, and there was a poor hatch/low poult per hen ratio this past year, then you need to plan accordingly with next year's (or two years out if you go off of poult per hen) harvest limits, etc.
They gather the data (most states do anyway) and then seem have no idea what to do with it. If nothing else, we've seen that these bird's population numbers can swing pretty widely, pretty rapidly. Having a system of regulation that takes multiple years to adjust/go in to effect, isn't ideal.
Quote from: Archivist13 on June 23, 2022, 05:21:12 PM
Quote from: GobbleNut on June 20, 2022, 08:55:21 AM
For decades, the theory of spring gobbler hunting was "the gobblers are surplus,...we don't have to worry about how many are killed in the spring". That theory is now changing to "wait a minute,...we have to have SOME gobblers (and enough gobblers) out there on the landscape during breeding season to start with!"
Bingo! I brought this up earlier this spring and had some guy tell me that all gobblers are expendable and should be treated as such. I tried to explain that we need some left and he told me that the population will sustain itself with new hatches. I guess he doesn't care about having anything but jakes to hunt?!
To be clear, in an "ideal world" where turkeys are successfully reproducing enough that young turkeys reaching maturity are sustainably replacing mature turkeys that are dying from all the various mortality factors, then yes, the claim could be made that all gobblers are expendable in properly-timed spring seasons. It is an entirely different matter to make that claim under the conditions that exist now in places that clearly have demonstrated that successful recruitment is not keeping up with mortality.
Simply stated, you cannot replace dead mature gobblers (or hens) with jakes (or jennies) if there are no jakes/jennies surviving to adulthood, whether it be from nesting failure or poult mortality. It does not take very many years of that happening until you have a real problem.
Quote from: nativeks on June 23, 2022, 03:28:08 PM
I listened to the morning session of the Kansas Wildlife and Parks. They had outfitters come in and speak. The head of the outfitters association got up and said we need to reduce the season length, and take the entire state to one bird. Another said that properties he had 150-200 turkeys on now are totally devoid of birds. The birds are coming home to roost so to speak. I'll post the video when its available with the times so you can watch.
Where I hunt in Kansas, now for two decades, there were more hunters this year than any year prior. By a good margin. And most complained about being unsuccessful and lack of birds. It was as if they were living in 2005 and had no idea of the decline and just assumed Kansas was easy.
Quote from: GobbleNut on June 23, 2022, 09:04:00 PM
Quote from: Archivist13 on June 23, 2022, 05:21:12 PM
Quote from: GobbleNut on June 20, 2022, 08:55:21 AM
For decades, the theory of spring gobbler hunting was "the gobblers are surplus,...we don't have to worry about how many are killed in the spring". That theory is now changing to "wait a minute,...we have to have SOME gobblers (and enough gobblers) out there on the landscape during breeding season to start with!"
Bingo! I brought this up earlier this spring and had some guy tell me that all gobblers are expendable and should be treated as such. I tried to explain that we need some left and he told me that the population will sustain itself with new hatches. I guess he doesn't care about having anything but jakes to hunt?!
To be clear, in an "ideal world" where turkeys are successfully reproducing enough that young turkeys reaching maturity are sustainably replacing mature turkeys that are dying from all the various mortality factors, then yes, the claim could be made that all gobblers are expendable in properly-timed spring seasons. It is an entirely different matter to make that claim under the conditions that exist now in places that clearly have demonstrated that successful recruitment is not keeping up with mortality.
Simply stated, you cannot replace dead mature gobblers (or hens) with jakes (or jennies) if there are no jakes/jennies surviving to adulthood, whether it be from nesting failure or poult mortality. It does not take very many years of that happening until you have a real problem.
I've heard it stated like this on a number of occasions. You need to stop the downward spiral 1st before you can have a chance at rebuilding turkey populations. Most seem to think it's just a matter of a good hatch or 2. If them good hatches occur with dwindling populations it might be enough for stabilization. It will take a number of good hatches to get populations back to boom the periods of the past for areas that are hurting now.
I keep hearing look at Arkansas as a metric as to why limiting harvest and season lengths don't work like it was supposed to cure the problem right away. From what I've read, up until the recent no Jake rules, Jake's made over 50% of the harvest in Arkansas. Tough to rebuild a population of gobblers when your killing more juveniles than the adults that are being removed.
Quote from: cuttinAR on June 23, 2022, 09:26:05 PM
Quote from: nativeks on June 23, 2022, 03:28:08 PM
I listened to the morning session of the Kansas Wildlife and Parks. They had outfitters come in and speak. The head of the outfitters association got up and said we need to reduce the season length, and take the entire state to one bird. Another said that properties he had 150-200 turkeys on now are totally devoid of birds. The birds are coming home to roost so to speak. I'll post the video when its available with the times so you can watch.
Where I hunt in Kansas, now for two decades, there were more hunters this year than any year prior. By a good margin. And most complained about being unsuccessful and lack of birds. It was as if they were living in 2005 and had no idea of the decline and just assumed Kansas was easy.
They showed more data this afternoon but I wasnt able to snip fast enough. Population here by their metrics peaked in 08. Ive said 07 for alot of years but it close enough. We have one commissioner that is a big fall hunter and has blocked biologist attempts to close the fall season as stated in our management plan. They asked the outfitters about fall hunting and none of them there allow fall birds to be taken. One even said its a poor management practice with our current population. The look on the commissioner's face was priceless.
NR numbers have stayed relatively flat even as bird numbers plummeted.
The head of the outfitters association said he is worried that the only place his grandkids will get to see a turkey soon is a museum behind glass. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220624/b3cfcf499bdbf93ecccc415cd0fee79e.jpg)
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Sounds like KS is going to reduce season and possibly the 2nd tag opportunities in the near future.
Quote from: Paulmyr on June 23, 2022, 09:37:01 PM
I keep hearing look at Arkansas as a metric as to why limiting harvest and season lengths don't work like it was supposed to cure the problem right away. From what I've read, up until the recent no Jake rules, Jake's made over 50% of the harvest in Arkansas. Tough to rebuild a population of gobblers when your killing more juveniles than the adults that are being removed.
Except the jake rule isn't really "recent" there. It was implemented for 2011. As you can see below, after a decade of not killing jakes and a reduced season, their recruitment hasn't been helped. Data definitely doesn't support some of the current theories. There are bigger problems than "hens not getting bred/delayed breeding".
(https://i.imgur.com/NGVKFiD.png)
Quote from: nativeks on June 23, 2022, 09:55:02 PM
Quote from: cuttinAR on June 23, 2022, 09:26:05 PM
Quote from: nativeks on June 23, 2022, 03:28:08 PM
I listened to the morning session of the Kansas Wildlife and Parks. They had outfitters come in and speak. The head of the outfitters association got up and said we need to reduce the season length, and take the entire state to one bird. Another said that properties he had 150-200 turkeys on now are totally devoid of birds. The birds are coming home to roost so to speak. I'll post the video when its available with the times so you can watch.
Where I hunt in Kansas, now for two decades, there were more hunters this year than any year prior. By a good margin. And most complained about being unsuccessful and lack of birds. It was as if they were living in 2005 and had no idea of the decline and just assumed Kansas was easy.
They showed more data this afternoon but I wasnt able to snip fast enough. Population here by their metrics peaked in 08. Ive said 07 for alot of years but it close enough. We have one commissioner that is a big fall hunter and has blocked biologist attempts to close the fall season as stated in our management plan. They asked the outfitters about fall hunting and none of them there allow fall birds to be taken. One even said its a poor management practice with our current population. The look on the commissioner's face was priceless.
NR numbers have stayed relatively flat even as bird numbers plummeted.
The head of the outfitters association said he is worried that the only place his grandkids will get to see a turkey soon is a museum behind glass. (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220624/b3cfcf499bdbf93ecccc415cd0fee79e.jpg)
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The most surprising thing to me is the narrow gap between numbers of residents and non-resident hunters. I was reading through Nebraska's turkey report and noticed that non-rez are buying MORE permits than residents now! And killing more birds. Refer to the chart below. States need to start taking better care of their RESIDENTS and quit worrying about the few extra bucks generated from non-rez turkey permit sales.
(https://i.imgur.com/iY7XGVu.png)
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 24, 2022, 11:17:10 AM
Quote from: Paulmyr on June 23, 2022, 09:37:01 PM
I keep hearing look at Arkansas as a metric as to why limiting harvest and season lengths don't work like it was supposed to cure the problem right away. From what I've read, up until the recent no Jake rules, Jake's made over 50% of the harvest in Arkansas. Tough to rebuild a population of gobblers when your killing more juveniles than the adults that are being removed.
Except the jake rule isn't really "recent" there. It was implemented for 2011. As you can see below, after a decade of not killing jakes and a reduced season, their recruitment hasn't been helped. Data definitely doesn't support some of the current theories. There are bigger problems than "hens not getting bred/delayed breeding".
(https://i.imgur.com/NGVKFiD.png)
Interesting graph. Especially where it shows a spike in the hen polt ratio in 2012 a year after the implementation of the no Jake rule and the coinciding drop in 2013. I bet you'd be interested in the fact that Arkansas had its first ever recorded snow fall in may on the 3rd and also major flooding on may 31st through much of central Arkansas with totals reaching over 5" in Polk county on the western border of the state to Poinsette county on the north eastern part of the state in a 24 hour period.
In 2014 there was an EF4 tornado the ripped through much of the same area in central Arkansas. The storm dumped heavy rains in much of north central to northeastern Ar. Over 7" in some areas. Clay, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph, and sharp counties were all declared federal disaster areas mainly for high water.
The weather stabilized a bit in 2015 and 2016 and this is reflected in the graph.
In 2017 the state suffered a rain event in the April 30th time period where many portions of northern Arkansas were hammered with more than 6"of rain some reporting over 8" with 9.73" falling near Rogers . Short term rainfall records were set in little Rock with 1.55" falling in a 15 minute period and 2.17" over a 30 minute time period.
If my memory serves me right Arkansas had pretty poor recruitment weather throughout the 2013 – 2017 time period other than the incidents I described above which incidentally coincide with the drops shown on your graph.
Since this time period, starting in 2018 the hen polt ratios are on an upward trend. I think it would be disingenuous to use your graph as a metric to make the statement that since it's inception the no Jake rule hasn't helped the hen polt ratio as it seems the drops in the ratio appear to be weather related at least in correlation to the graph you provided. Are the no Jake rule and season changes helping? Possibly but I think more time is needed to show a correlation or lack there of.
What I would say in relation to my previous post and your graph is the downward spiral appears to have stopped and it's going to take more than one or 2 good/great hatches for the population to recover to levels of the past.
Quote from: Paulmyr on June 25, 2022, 02:10:47 PM
Quote from: deerhunt1988 on June 24, 2022, 11:17:10 AM
Quote from: Paulmyr on June 23, 2022, 09:37:01 PM
I keep hearing look at Arkansas as a metric as to why limiting harvest and season lengths don't work like it was supposed to cure the problem right away. From what I've read, up until the recent no Jake rules, Jake's made over 50% of the harvest in Arkansas. Tough to rebuild a population of gobblers when your killing more juveniles than the adults that are being removed.
Except the jake rule isn't really "recent" there. It was implemented for 2011. As you can see below, after a decade of not killing jakes and a reduced season, their recruitment hasn't been helped. Data definitely doesn't support some of the current theories. There are bigger problems than "hens not getting bred/delayed breeding".
(https://i.imgur.com/NGVKFiD.png)
Interesting graph. Especially where it shows a spike in the hen polt ratio in 2012 a year after the implementation of the no Jake rule and the coinciding drop in 2013. I bet you'd be interested in the fact that Arkansas had its first ever recorded snow fall in may on the 3rd and also major flooding on may 31st through much of central Arkansas with totals reaching over 5" in Polk county on the western border of the state to Poinsette county on the north eastern part of the state in a 24 hour period.
In 2014 there was an EF4 tornado the ripped through much of the same area in central Arkansas. The storm dumped heavy rains in much of north central to northeastern Ar. Over 7" in some areas. Clay, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Lawrence, Randolph, and sharp counties were all declared federal disaster areas mainly for high water.
The weather stabilized a bit in 2015 and 2016 and this is reflected in the graph.
In 2017 the state suffered a rain event in the April 30th time period where many portions of northern Arkansas were hammered with more than 6"of rain some reporting over 8" with 9.73" falling near Rogers . Short term rainfall records were set in little Rock with 1.55" falling in a 15 minute period and 2.17" over a 30 minute time period.
If my memory serves me right Arkansas had pretty poor recruitment weather throughout the 2013 – 2017 time period other than the incidents I described above which incidentally coincide with the drops shown on your graph.
Since this time period, starting in 2018 the hen polt ratios are on an upward trend. I think it would be disingenuous to use your graph as a metric to make the statement that since it's inception the no Jake rule hasn't helped the hen polt ratio as it seems the drops in the ratio appear to be weather related at least in correlation to the graph you provided. Is it helping? Possibly but I think more time is needed to show a correlation or lack there of.
What I would say in relation to my previous post and your graph is the downward spiral appears to have stopped and it's going to take more than one or 2 good/great hatches for the population to recover to levels of the past.
2012 was a great hatch year regionwide, across multiple states. Which is not uncommon. When conditions align, (thanks, Mother Nature!) reproduction can boom on a large, multi-state scale.
Look at Missouri in 2012:
(https://i.imgur.com/fTvSq7I.png)
Mississippi in 2012. (The first state to implement a "no jakes" in the 90s).
(https://i.imgur.com/ZIF9Lvg.png)
Just glimpsed at LA's data and it was a great hatch there too that year.
And you are 100% correct, Mother Nature plays a large role in the up and down NATURAL fluctuations of turkey populations. We just can't seem to get consecutive good hatches anymore. Those 2-3+ year streaks of good hatches that a lot of states saw in the 90s and 2000s just aren't happening anymore. And like your example, some of these weather events are a reason why. I do know a lot of the eastern US saw a great hatch last year, and many parts of the southeast are drier than normal now, priming us for another good hatch. Fingers crossed!
I'm all for jake harvest restrictions, but I do I think its going to help recruitment? No. And why? Because all the research shows (even the latest) that there has been no change in the percentage of hens that initiate nests. And no change in mean incubation dates. If hens weren't getting bred or breeding was delayed, you'd think the data would show it. Maybe researchers are sitting on data that proves otherwise, but if they are, they really need to publish it to get us all on board!
I'd be interested in getting a look at the studies you mention. Do you have any links or could you send me in the right direction? I used to have a research search engine bookmarked were I could look up all kinds of interesting studies about wild turkeys and wildlife in general but I seem to have lost it when my phone/phones went in the drink while duck hunting. I'm usually good for about one a year. Get my moneys worth from Insurion.
I guess my thoughts on no Jake harvest is to promote gobbler carry over making it easier for hens to choose a dominant Tom's to mate with. Instead of one gobbler having to service 20 or more hens in the area maybe with more around the hens per dominant gobbler number would be fewer especially if the population starts to rebound. If your taking more juveniles than adults I don't see that happening as readily. I could actually see it get worse with Tom's having to service even more hens as time progresses. I haven't been privy to mean incubation studies or data so it would be nice to see long term numbers for comparison.
Why are turkeys plentiful in urban areas?
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Lack of predators and good habitat
Quote from: fallhnt on June 27, 2022, 06:42:29 AM
Why are turkeys plentiful in urban areas?
Quote from: Shiloh on June 27, 2022, 07:39:24 AM
Lack of predators and good habitat
Interesting observation, and I think the response is correct, but only partially so. It should be added that turkeys can become accustomed to the presence of humans and human activity once they realize they are not threatened. In addition, these types of situations often have the added attraction of people feeding wildlife to attract them for viewing. Turkeys that become oblivious to danger from humans also become much more visible due to the fact that they don't feel compelled to hide for safety reasons.
This is not just unique to urban areas, either. It is becoming more commonplace,...in all parts of the country, I suspect,...for folks to feed wildlife and hold them on their properties. I have seen this common phenomenon pretty much everywhere I have hunted, even in very rural areas. Landowners attract wildlife to their properties with food and associated safety,...and soon the turkeys are staying right there most of the time.
Speaking of the specific state referenced,...Nebraska,...we saw the very same thing this spring hunting in the Pine Ridge area. Turkeys on the public lands,...if they were there at all,...were not apparent/visible at all, while private properties adjacent to those public areas had highly-visible turkeys that paid little attention to our human presence.
Bottom line is that turkeys (and most other wildlife) are fully capable of learning where they are safe and where the vittles are,...and staying there,...even in the presence of us humans.
Quote from: Shiloh on June 27, 2022, 07:39:24 AM
Lack of predators and good habitat
Not so sure about the lack of predators. I live 10 miles from downtown St Paul Mn. I see foxes and racoons on a regular basis. Have been for a while. Most turkeys I see are on the outskirts of the housing where it meets Ag land. Plenty of coyotes, coons, and other predators in them areas. I see some turkeys once in a while in the housing districts but not that often. There usually has to be some sort large wildlife sanctuary nearby or the housing is on large wooded lots.